South Carolina Republican primary thread - 24 February 2024.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1761547734476083211?t=ZQQOgqELC8ASQtuqgIl2rw&...
As I've been predicting, in the primary Trump is doing best with Gen Z and worst with Millenials.

Well, that's weird. Because looking at the results by precinct, Trump lost almost every major college campus to Haley, including Clemson and UofSC.

Election results are simply not lining up with the polls right now.

Have you considered that not all young voters are college students?

Didn't say they were, but the thing is if Trump was actually leading Haley and Biden amongst that age group, we'd be seeing him excelling in areas with high concentrations of young voters, such as college campuses. Such a monumental shift would be showing up in the results somewhere, but it's simply not.

He certainly wouldn't be doing worse with them than he did in 2016.

The students at those universities likely are registered in their home counties, not at the schools. The voters in those areas are probably professors/locals who live there. UofSC is in Columbia where there maybe was some Dem crossover voters.

This is a pretty interesting question. Is there any data on the proportion of college students who register at home vs at college?

[emailking]

The fact that citizens can vote is what literally makes it a democracy. Please define republic and democracy.

Would you define the state of New York as undemocratic for permitting non-citizen voting?

Democracy = One person, one vote There are very few truly democratic systems. The US system is undemocratic because it follows the principles of Montesquieu in checks and balances.

The senate attempts to preserve regional balances at the expense of democracy. The house is also somewhat undemocratic in preservation of partisan gerrymanders, but is more representative than the senate.

The other issue is regarding residency. All voting systems have some form of citizenship and residency requirements in order to qualify for the vote. This is undemocratic, because some who live in a country do not qualify to vote in that country. Then you have age restrictions. Limiting the vote to 18 year olds is undemocratic.

A true democratic presidential system would be very simple. One person casts a ballot for the president. No residency requirements, no citizenship requirements, no age requirements. No states. Just one ballot, everyone's vote counts equally for the presidency.

The US is actually not a democracy, it is a representative republic. Citizens nominate their representatives that represent them in Congress.

Google says the US is a representative democracy (and thus a democracy).

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1761547734476083211?t=ZQQOgqELC8ASQtuqgIl2rw&...
As I've been predicting, in the primary Trump is doing best with Gen Z and worst with Millenials.

Well, that's weird. Because looking at the results by precinct, Trump lost almost every major college campus to Haley, including Clemson and UofSC.

Election results are simply not lining up with the polls right now.

Young people aren't only on college campuses. If education polarization is true, maybe non-college Gen Z are way more Republican.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1761547734476083211?t=ZQQOgqELC8ASQtuqgIl2rw&...
As I've been predicting, in the primary Trump is doing best with Gen Z and worst with Millenials.

Well, that's weird. Because looking at the results by precinct, Trump lost almost every major college campus to Haley, including Clemson and UofSC.

Election results are simply not lining up with the polls right now.

Young people aren't only on college campuses. If education polarization is true, maybe non-college Gen Z are way more Republican.

Or maybe the kind of young people inclined to join the GOP in its current state are disproportionately Trumpists.

[Torrain]

Haley winning Romney areas feels pretty on brand .

[Steve from Lambeth]

What’s with Haley reconstructing the Gingrich 2012 coalition?

Those maps... literally show the opposite of "Haley reconstructing the Gingrich 2012 coalition."

[Torrain]

Those maps... literally show the opposite of "Haley reconstructing the Gingrich 2012 coalition."

My bad - mixed them up. Fixed.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1761547734476083211?t=ZQQOgqELC8ASQtuqgIl2rw&...

As I've been predicting, in the primary Trump is doing best with Gen Z and worst with Millenials.

Well, that's weird. Because looking at the results by precinct, Trump lost almost every major college campus to Haley, including Clemson and UofSC.

Election results are simply not lining up with the polls right now.

Have you considered that not all young voters are college students?

Didn't say they were, but the thing is if Trump was actually leading Haley and Biden amongst that age group, we'd be seeing him excelling in areas with high concentrations of young voters, such as college campuses. Such a monumental shift would be showing up in the results somewhere, but it's simply not.

He certainly wouldn't be doing worse with them than he did in 2016.

The students at those universities likely are registered in their home counties, not at the schools. The voters in those areas are probably professors/locals who live there. UofSC is in Columbia where there maybe was some Dem crossover voters.

Do we have any real data to back this up though? This seems purely theoretical.

And, again, Trump winning over young people would be earthshaking and we'd surely be seeing such a shift somewhere in current election results (there is none).

[nicholas.slaydon]

What’s with Haley reconstructing the Gingrich 2012 coalition?

Those maps... literally show the opposite of "Haley reconstructing the Gingrich 2012 coalition."

And the Rubio 2016 vote as well.

[Mopsus]

Haley winning Romney areas feels pretty on brand .

Country club Republicans vs. normal Republicans, I assume.

[2016]

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has endorsed Catherine Templeton over Rep. Nancy Mace in SC-1. The irony however is: Templeton worked for Nikki Haley when she was Governor of SC.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Haley winning Romney areas feels pretty on brand .

Country club Republicans vs. normal Republicans, I assume.

Yeah, Charleston isn't known to be full of MAGA types. You have to go up to Berkeley or Dorchester County to find a lot of those.