South Carolina Republican primary thread - 24 February 2024.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Top SC primary vote-getters

Trump 2024     452K
Bush 2000       306K
Haley 2024      299K
Obama 2008    295K
Clinton 2016    272K
Biden 2020      262K
Gingrich 2012  244K
Trump 2016     241K
McCain 2000    240K

Trump-Haley 2024 looks a lot like Bush-McCain 2000.  Both are highly polarizing races that drew in a lot of voters who usually do not vote in the GOP SC primary.  In 2000 I think the Dems went with a caucus in SC which also made it easier for surge non-traditional GOP primary voters to vote in the GOP primary just like in 2024.

Just like Trump's 2024 NH primary total vote record, I suspect it will be decades before his 2024 record in SC will be broken

More proof this might be a higher turnout election than expected.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Top SC primary vote-getters

Trump 2024     452K
Bush 2000       306K
Haley 2024      299K
Obama 2008    295K
Clinton 2016    272K
Biden 2020      262K
Gingrich 2012  244K
Trump 2016     241K
McCain 2000    240K

Trump-Haley 2024 looks a lot like Bush-McCain 2000.  Both are highly polarizing races that drew in a lot of voters who usually do not vote in the GOP SC primary.  In 2000 I think the Dems went with a caucus in SC which also made it easier for surge non-traditional GOP primary voters to vote in the GOP primary just like in 2024.

Just like Trump's 2024 NH primary total vote record, I suspect it will be decades before his 2024 record in SC will be broken

More proof this might be a higher turnout election than expected.

..



Higher turnout doesn't bode well for Rs we got 80/75 M more votes last time than Rs and it's more Ds in blue states than red state Rs

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1761774416923422853

[Wisconsin+17]

We are now firmly locked into one final battle for democracy.

Last I checked it's a republic not a democracy. You should move to Freedom or some other country that is a democracy.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

We are now firmly locked into one final battle for democracy.

Last I checked it's a republic not a democracy. You should move to Freedom or some other country that is a democracy.

Republic and democracy are not mutually exclusive terms.

[Wisconsin+17]

Republic and democracy are not mutually exclusive terms.

The US Constitution says otherwise.

[Smash255]

As per SC BOE looks like Haley won SC-01 and Trump won SC-06.   Overall vote totals appear to be higher in SC-01 and lower in SC-06 that what green papers has so perhaps extrapolating errors in the estimate

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Republic and democracy are not mutually exclusive terms.

The US Constitution says otherwise.

Guess what the constitution grants? The right to vote for representatives thus making the US a representative democracy. Republic simply means the government isn’t ruled by a monarch which is also true for the US. The US is a Democratic Republic.

[Wisconsin+17]

Guess what the constitution grants? The right to vote for representatives thus making the US a representative democracy. Republic simply means the government isn’t ruled by a monarch which is also true for the US. The US is a Democratic Republic.

It also outlaws bills of attainders, and requires voters to be citizens of the United States, with verifiable residency.

Thank God it's not a democracy.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Guess what the constitution grants? The right to vote for representatives thus making the US a representative democracy. Republic simply means the government isn’t ruled by a monarch which is also true for the US. The US is a Democratic Republic.

It also outlaws bills of attainders, and requires voters to be citizens of the United States, with verifiable residency.

Thank God it's not a democracy.

The fact that citizens can vote is what literally makes it a democracy. Please define republic and democracy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ben Kenobi is back?

Hey, Ben, when are you going to pay up on this wager we made in 2018?  You disappeared right after the midterms instead of following through on your bet.

A friendly wager between Ben Kenobi and myself:

If you are confident that R's will gain seats, how about a friendly wager on it?  Specifically, if the D's end up with fewer than 195 total House seats, I'll change my avatar to match your current one until the end of November.  But if they end up with 195 or more, you change your avatar to I-GA for the same period.  Agreed?

Nah, there are some predictions on the high end that are even more unlikely than yours (there's a D+153, IIRC).

Which is sort of my point, no? Mine at least has polls that reflect the outcome.

How about which of our predictions is closest?  We're both on record in the thread, you at R+4 and me at D+42.  The average of those is D+19.  Want to go over/under on that?  (Exactly D+19 would be a push.)

Why not straight up D takes the house you win. D falls short, I win. Simpler, and that's really the crux of the matter, no?

Fair enough.  It's a bet.

Ben, you can change your avatar now.

(I'll also note for the record that my prediction was within one seat of the actual result.)

[jaichind]

Haley's outperformance in Charleston seems to be concentrated in precincts where it is very likely 2020 Biden voters came over to vote for her

[2016]

Biggest Loser of that Night: Rep. Nancy Mace. She endorsed Trump and could not deliver the 3 District Delegates to him. She is toast in the June 7th Primary.

[Tekken_Guy]

Biggest Loser of that Night: Rep. Nancy Mace. She endorsed Trump and could not deliver the 3 District Delegates to him. She is toast in the June 7th Primary.

No she is not. I think she’ll still end up winning the primary.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1761547734476083211?t=ZQQOgqELC8ASQtuqgIl2rw&...

As I've been predicting, in the primary Trump is doing best with Gen Z and worst with Millenials.

Well, that's weird. Because looking at the results by precinct, Trump lost almost every major college campus to Haley, including Clemson and UofSC.

Election results are simply not lining up with the polls right now.

[2016]

Biggest Loser of that Night: Rep. Nancy Mace. She endorsed Trump and could not deliver the 3 District Delegates to him. She is toast in the June 7th Primary.

No she is not. I think she’ll still end up winning the primary.

After all the garbarge she did ousting McCarthy, pulling the Republican House Conference into Chaos. Nope! She & Boebert will lose.

[Aurelius2]

Prediction: Trump 59, Haley 39. The question to me is does Haley win a county?

My numerical prediction was bang on. IDK why I thought she might not win any counties with those topline results though.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1761547734476083211?t=ZQQOgqELC8ASQtuqgIl2rw&...

As I've been predicting, in the primary Trump is doing best with Gen Z and worst with Millenials.

Well, that's weird. Because looking at the results by precinct, Trump lost almost every major college campus to Haley, including Clemson and UofSC.

Election results are simply not lining up with the polls right now.

Have you considered that not all young voters are college students?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1761547734476083211?t=ZQQOgqELC8ASQtuqgIl2rw&...

As I've been predicting, in the primary Trump is doing best with Gen Z and worst with Millenials.

Well, that's weird. Because looking at the results by precinct, Trump lost almost every major college campus to Haley, including Clemson and UofSC.

Election results are simply not lining up with the polls right now.

Have you considered that not all young voters are college students?

Didn't say they were, but the thing is if Trump was actually leading Haley and Biden amongst that age group, we'd be seeing him excelling in areas with high concentrations of young voters, such as college campuses. Such a monumental shift would be showing up in the results somewhere, but it's simply not.

He certainly wouldn't be doing worse with them than he did in 2016.

[Tekken_Guy]

Biggest Loser of that Night: Rep. Nancy Mace. She endorsed Trump and could not deliver the 3 District Delegates to him. She is toast in the June 7th Primary.

No she is not. I think she’ll still end up winning the primary.

After all the garbarge she did ousting McCarthy, pulling the Republican House Conference into Chaos. Nope! She & Boebert will lose.

Also don’t forget about Victoria Spartz, another clown of a congresswoman who has managed to alienate everyone.

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1761547734476083211?t=ZQQOgqELC8ASQtuqgIl2rw&...

As I've been predicting, in the primary Trump is doing best with Gen Z and worst with Millenials.

Well, that's weird. Because looking at the results by precinct, Trump lost almost every major college campus to Haley, including Clemson and UofSC.

Election results are simply not lining up with the polls right now.

Yeah the results don't align with this poll at all.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1761547734476083211?t=ZQQOgqELC8ASQtuqgIl2rw&...

As I've been predicting, in the primary Trump is doing best with Gen Z and worst with Millenials.

Well, that's weird. Because looking at the results by precinct, Trump lost almost every major college campus to Haley, including Clemson and UofSC.

Election results are simply not lining up with the polls right now.

Have you considered that not all young voters are college students?

Didn't say they were, but the thing is if Trump was actually leading Haley and Biden amongst that age group, we'd be seeing him excelling in areas with high concentrations of young voters, such as college campuses. Such a monumental shift would be showing up in the results somewhere, but it's simply not.

He certainly wouldn't be doing worse with them than he did in 2016.

The students at those universities likely are registered in their home counties, not at the schools. The voters in those areas are probably professors/locals who live there. UofSC is in Columbia where there maybe was some Dem crossover voters.

[Wisconsin+17]

The fact that citizens can vote is what literally makes it a democracy. Please define republic and democracy.

Would you define the state of New York as undemocratic for permitting non-citizen voting?

Democracy = One person, one vote There are very few truly democratic systems. The US system is undemocratic because it follows the principles of Montesquieu in checks and balances.

The senate attempts to preserve regional balances at the expense of democracy. The house is also somewhat undemocratic in preservation of partisan gerrymanders, but is more representative than the senate.

The other issue is regarding residency. All voting systems have some form of citizenship and residency requirements in order to qualify for the vote. This is undemocratic, because some who live in a country do not qualify to vote in that country. Then you have age restrictions. Limiting the vote to 18 year olds is undemocratic.

A true democratic presidential system would be very simple. One person casts a ballot for the president. No residency requirements, no citizenship requirements, no age requirements. No states. Just one ballot, everyone's vote counts equally for the presidency.

The US is actually not a democracy, it is a representative republic. Citizens nominate their representatives that represent them in Congress.

[Wisconsin+17]

Hey, Ben, when are you going to pay up on this wager we made in 2018?  You disappeared right after the midterms instead of following through on your bet.

That's a blast from the past. I'm not really 'back'. Just enjoying primary season.

How's life been treating you?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hey, Ben, when are you going to pay up on this wager we made in 2018?  You disappeared right after the midterms instead of following through on your bet.

That's a blast from the past. I'm not really 'back'. Just enjoying primary season.

How's life been treating you?

Not bad. Not bad at all.