NC: Trump +3 (E. Carolina Uni)

[Redban]

Trump 47
Biden 44
Kennedy 2
West 1
Stein 1
Unsure 6

https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/mark-robinson-and-josh-stein-clear-favorites-to-win-nominations-in-primary-elections-for-governor-likely-general-election-matchup-tied

[MR DARK BRANDON]

this is actually… reasonable…

[Minnesota Mike]

this is actually… reasonable…

Most reasonable part is Kennedy, West, and Stein combining for only 4%.

[Devils30]

The polls are slowly starting to make more sense, converge on 2020. If NC is within 3, there is no chance GA is not close.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This same polls has Gov race tied

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Yea this seems realistic but I think NC was never gonna shift very right wing. It's that eternal tilt R state and some D strategists have been saying it might be closer than GA. Not sure if i have to believe them for that. But at the very least it's a purple state that probably will trend left at some point again in the future.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

To Laki and Redban if Trump is leading by 3 and we lost NC by 3 pts in 22 it's a 303 D map, the polls polling Trump ahead are bogus

[Devils30]

Yea this seems realistic but I think NC was never gonna shift very right wing. It's that eternal tilt R state and some D strategists have been saying it might be closer than GA. Not sure if i have to believe them for that. But at the very least it's a purple state that probably will trend left at some point again in the future.

Nahh, despite bad GA polling, the trends for the blue team are phenomenal in Georgia. You have metro Atlanta getting blacker each cycle AND a major swing to the left among white college. GOP is also close to maxed out with WWC voters, any gains will have to come with non-whites and if polls are overestimating GOP with this group, it stands to reason this would be amplified in GA polling.

[seskoog]

An actually reasonable poll. This far out, I refuse to believe any polls that show results that differ by more than 5 points from 2020 in any direction in any state except Florida (where a Trump+9-10 poll would still fit in the expected range)

[Spectator]

Stein probably wins any spread where Trump wins by less than 5

[TDAS04]

Yeah, even if Biden does end up losing NC by 3, he could still win the election. Not implausible at all.

[Tekken_Guy]

Stein probably wins any spread where Trump wins by less than 5

What’s the breakeven point for Jeff Jackson.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Stein probably wins any spread where Trump wins by less than 5

What’s the breakeven point for Jeff Jackson.

Like Biden+2? Mainly because Bishop is a pretty strong candidate though.

[BG-NY]

Seems to be an outlier, but throw it in the average.

[DaleCooper]

Yea this seems realistic but I think NC was never gonna shift very right wing. It's that eternal tilt R state and some D strategists have been saying it might be closer than GA. Not sure if i have to believe them for that. But at the very least it's a purple state that probably will trend left at some point again in the future.

I'm open to any well-reasoned arguments regarding this election cycle, but those Democratic strategists wrote that part of the reason Biden won GA last time is because Warnock was on the ballot. Pretty safe to ignore them if that's their reasoning. 

[Spectator]

Stein probably wins any spread where Trump wins by less than 5

What’s the breakeven point for Jeff Jackson.

Like Biden+2? Mainly because Bishop is a pretty strong candidate though.

Bishop, the guy that almost lost a Trump +10 congressional district? No. Trump +2 is probably where I’d draw the breakeven line in that race.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Stein probably wins any spread where Trump wins by less than 5

What’s the breakeven point for Jeff Jackson.

Like Biden+2? Mainly because Bishop is a pretty strong candidate though.

Bishop, the guy that almost lost a Trump +10 congressional district? No. Trump +2 is probably where I’d draw the breakeven line in that race.

Special elections have weird turnout dynamics. In the November 2020 election Bishop ended outrunning Trump by a few points.

[GAinDC]

Yea this seems realistic but I think NC was never gonna shift very right wing. It's that eternal tilt R state and some D strategists have been saying it might be closer than GA. Not sure if i have to believe them for that. But at the very least it's a purple state that probably will trend left at some point again in the future.

I'm open to any well-reasoned arguments regarding this election cycle, but those Democratic strategists wrote that part of the reason Biden won GA last time is because Warnock was on the ballot. Pretty safe to ignore them if that's their reasoning. 

Warnock’s race didn’t heat up until after the general election. The real contest in that race before the runoff was between Loeffler and Collins.

Please don’t make assumptions about my state based on things that aren’t accurate

[DaleCooper]

Yea this seems realistic but I think NC was never gonna shift very right wing. It's that eternal tilt R state and some D strategists have been saying it might be closer than GA. Not sure if i have to believe them for that. But at the very least it's a purple state that probably will trend left at some point again in the future.

I'm open to any well-reasoned arguments regarding this election cycle, but those Democratic strategists wrote that part of the reason Biden won GA last time is because Warnock was on the ballot. Pretty safe to ignore them if that's their reasoning. 

Warnock’s race didn’t heat up until after the general election. The real contest in that race before the runoff was between Loeffler and Collins.

Please don’t make assumptions about my state based on things that aren’t accurate

That's what the D strategists thought.

[GAinDC]

Yea this seems realistic but I think NC was never gonna shift very right wing. It's that eternal tilt R state and some D strategists have been saying it might be closer than GA. Not sure if i have to believe them for that. But at the very least it's a purple state that probably will trend left at some point again in the future.

I'm open to any well-reasoned arguments regarding this election cycle, but those Democratic strategists wrote that part of the reason Biden won GA last time is because Warnock was on the ballot. Pretty safe to ignore them if that's their reasoning.  

Warnock’s race didn’t heat up until after the general election. The real contest in that race before the runoff was between Loeffler and Collins.

Please don’t make assumptions about my state based on things that aren’t accurate

That's what the D strategists thought.

I read that article. They’re wrong

And even if they’re correct, Warnock will campaign for Biden this year

[DaleCooper]

Yea this seems realistic but I think NC was never gonna shift very right wing. It's that eternal tilt R state and some D strategists have been saying it might be closer than GA. Not sure if i have to believe them for that. But at the very least it's a purple state that probably will trend left at some point again in the future.

I'm open to any well-reasoned arguments regarding this election cycle, but those Democratic strategists wrote that part of the reason Biden won GA last time is because Warnock was on the ballot. Pretty safe to ignore them if that's their reasoning.  

Warnock’s race didn’t heat up until after the general election. The real contest in that race before the runoff was between Loeffler and Collins.

Please don’t make assumptions about my state based on things that aren’t accurate

That's what the D strategists thought.

I read that article. They’re wrong

And even if they’re correct, Warnock will campaign for Biden this year

I know they're wrong. That's why I said they should be ignored. Frankly, they ought to be fired.

[GAinDC]

Yea this seems realistic but I think NC was never gonna shift very right wing. It's that eternal tilt R state and some D strategists have been saying it might be closer than GA. Not sure if i have to believe them for that. But at the very least it's a purple state that probably will trend left at some point again in the future.

I'm open to any well-reasoned arguments regarding this election cycle, but those Democratic strategists wrote that part of the reason Biden won GA last time is because Warnock was on the ballot. Pretty safe to ignore them if that's their reasoning.  

Warnock’s race didn’t heat up until after the general election. The real contest in that race before the runoff was between Loeffler and Collins.

Please don’t make assumptions about my state based on things that aren’t accurate

That's what the D strategists thought.

I read that article. They’re wrong

And even if they’re correct, Warnock will campaign for Biden this year

I know they're wrong. That's why I said they should be ignored. Frankly, they ought to be fired.

Sorry to get a little heated. I didn’t realize you were refuting that argument.

That article bothered me because I think it’s a really bad take on GA. They don’t understand what’s powering Georgia’s blue shift. And kinda seemed like they were jealous that NC was no longer the belle of the ball for Democratic campaigns. 

[dspNY]

This poll kind of rings true to me (and the Marquette poll of Wisconsin that shows a tie). All the Trump +7 to +10 polls in the swing states are crazy outliers. It also rings true in the sense that the third party candidates aren't grabbing a crazy amount of the vote. Third party numbers always collapse when it comes down to the election