Larry Hogan leading both Democrats in US Senate Maryland race

[rsharpe54]

Well,
Hogan wins 25% of Democrats against Trone and 30% of Democrats against Alsobrooks.


The Emerson College Polling/The Hill/DC News Now survey found Hogan leading Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) in a hypothetical match-up at 44 percent to 37 percent among registered Maryland voters, with 19 percent undecided.

When Maryland voters are asked to pick between Hogan and Rep. David Trone (D-Md.), the poll shows a tighter race, with both men tied at 42 percent, and the remaining 16 percent undecided. 

It’s a remarkable showing for a former GOP governor in a deep-blue state. Hogan only announced last week that he was running for outgoing Sen. Ben Cardin’s (D) seat. Meanwhile, polls show President Biden beating former President Trump in a hypothetical match-up there, 55 percent to 32 percent.

Hogan left office with a whopping 77 percent approval rating, according to a Gonzales poll last year. The Maryland Republican has also bucked his party at times as a vocal Trump critic, making him a formidable opponent in the blue state. 

“In addition to the majority of Republican voters’ support in the general election, Hogan also holds broad appeal in a matchup against Trone among independents, at 48%, and also garners nearly a quarter of Democratic voters’ support,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a press release. 

“In a matchup between Hogan and Alsobrooks, independents support Hogan 43% to 18%, and 31% of Democrats support Hogan.”

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill/DC News Now survey of 1,000 registered Maryland voters was conducted Feb. 12-13. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. 

                           

[Progressive Pessimist]

And Colin Allred is tied with Ted Cruz.

Neither of these things will last by November, though the Texas race is more winnable for Democrats than Maryland is for Republicans.

[Spectator]

The title is false. A tie is not a lead. Hello Bredesen 2.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cruz is losing to ALLRED so if we win TX it can make up in MT or MD loss

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Not to be overconfident for the Democrats, but

From Wiki, Linda Lingle was a two term governor of Hawaii from 2003-2010

Lingle was the first reasonably well-funded Republican to run for the Senate in Hawaii since Pat Saiki ran in the 1990 special election against Akaka, and the strongest Republican candidate for a full term in the Senate from the state in memory. Although a poll in the summer of 2012 showed the race as close as five points, ultimately Hirono defeated Lingle with 63 percent of the vote to Lingle's 37 percent.

All Democrats have to do in Maryland is remind Democratic voters that a vote for Larry Hogan is nothing more than a vote for Mitch McConnell as Senate Majority Leader.

[Agafin]

Not to be overconfident for the Democrats, but

From Wiki, Linda Lingle was a two term governor of Hawaii from 2003-2010

Lingle was the first reasonably well-funded Republican to run for the Senate in Hawaii since Pat Saiki ran in the 1990 special election against Akaka, and the strongest Republican candidate for a full term in the Senate from the state in memory. Although a poll in the summer of 2012 showed the race as close as five points, ultimately Hirono defeated Lingle with 63 percent of the vote to Lingle's 37 percent.

All Democrats have to do in Maryland is remind Democratic voters that a vote for Larry Hogan is nothing more than a vote for Mitch McConnell as Senate Majority Leader.

Was Lingle popular when she left office? That's a very important variable here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They can't take over the S without MT and OH because Deb Fischer and Cruz and Scott are vulnerable. Brown and Tester are winning

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Not to be overconfident for the Democrats, but

From Wiki, Linda Lingle was a two term governor of Hawaii from 2003-2010

Lingle was the first reasonably well-funded Republican to run for the Senate in Hawaii since Pat Saiki ran in the 1990 special election against Akaka, and the strongest Republican candidate for a full term in the Senate from the state in memory. Although a poll in the summer of 2012 showed the race as close as five points, ultimately Hirono defeated Lingle with 63 percent of the vote to Lingle's 37 percent.

All Democrats have to do in Maryland is remind Democratic voters that a vote for Larry Hogan is nothing more than a vote for Mitch McConnell as Senate Majority Leader.

Was Lingle popular when she left office? That's a very important variable here.

2010 was a tough year for most incumbents, and her approval/disapproval ratings had fallen to 44/51 by the end of her second term.
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2010/10/25/hawaii-news/most-surveyed-voters-dislike-lingles-performance/

However, like many ex politicians, her approval ratings increased again after she left office.

In four of five polls from October 2011 to June 2012, Lingle trailed by less than 10%. Also, Hirono who was not the incumbent Senator at the time, had previously narrowly lost to Lingle when they both ran for governor in 2002.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_Senate_election_in_Hawaii

As much as you might argue she ended as an unpopular governor, she still had a 44% approval rating at the end of her term, but only received 37% of the vote in the U.S Senate race.

This is not a one time thing either as others have mentioned here.

Also in 2012, former 3 term Wisconsin Republican governor (and Presidential candidate for nomination) Tommy Thompson lost for the U.S Senate as did former governor and U.S Senator Bob Kerrey in Nebraska. In 2016 former governor and U.S Senator Evan Bayh lost an attempted comeback in Indiana.

Of course, those three cases were politicians who hadn't held elected office for years trying for a comeback. More relevant along with Lingle was popular two term Democratic governor Phil Bredesen in Tennessee in 2018 who lost running for the U.S Senate and popular two term Montana Democratic governor Steve Bullock in 2022 who lost running for the U.S Senate.

https://split-ticket.org/2024/02/11/larry-hogan-faces-an-impossible-challenge/

The closest to an exception to this is Joe Manchin who won election in 2012 by 25% all the while President Obama lost in West Virginia by 25%. However, Manchin had appointed himself to the U.S Senate in 2011, so he was an incumbent Senator, and, with ticket splitting voters declining, Manchin was only reelected by about 3.5% six years later (against a more credible Republican challenger.)

Finally, one of the Republicans in Maryland who had been pushing for Hogan to run said that the appeal is that 'Hogan can be the Republican Joe Manchin.' Does that actually sound appealing to anybody?

[Lambsbread]

I usually don't make firm predictions this far out from elections anymore, but I can say with the utmost confidence that Larry Hogan will not win this election. Book it, take it to the bank, whatever you gotta do. It ain't happening.