KY-GOV 2027- Jacqueline Coleman

[Fwillb21]

This may be a silly question coming from a non-Kentuckian, but if Lt. Governor Jacqueline Coleman ran for governor in 2027, could the race be competitive? I obviously know that Kentucky is a very red state, but they happen to have a very popular Democratic governor in Andy Beshear. I was just wondering if Jacqueline Coleman did run, she could make the race a bit tighter than it would be otherwise with having been the lieutenant governor under a popular governor.

[TML]

I don't know what the political landscape in KY will look like later this decade or even next decade, but at the current rate, I suspect that at some point within the next 15 years or so, there will be one or more elections where the winning party in KY-GOV is Republican while the winning party in the next year's presidential election is Democratic.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

She would probably crack 40% and avoid being obliterated, but the only way Rs are losing that race is if they nominate a terrible candidate.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Titanium R.

Beshear will be the last Democrat ever elected statewide.

[SilverStar]

Rocky Adkins

[Tekken_Guy]

Titanium R.

Beshear will be the last Democrat ever elected statewide.

Ever is a very long time.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Titanium R.

Beshear will be the last Democrat ever elected statewide.

Ever is a very long time.

Quite.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Titanium R.

Beshear will be the last Democrat ever elected statewide.

I don't try to predict the future but the same thing was said first about Paul Patton after Republican Ernie Fletcher succeeded him and then was said about Steve Beshear after Matt Bevin succeeded him.

Kentucky Republicans keep voting for horrible people who lose reelection.

[Lambsbread]

Titanium R.

Beshear will be the last Democrat ever elected statewide.

Ever is a very long time.

In political years, "forever" could mean a week or 50 years.

[Skill and Chance]

Titanium R.

Beshear will be the last Democrat ever elected statewide.

Ever is a very long time.

And Kentucky is if anything moving slightly left at the federal level!

[Spectator]

Titanium R.

Beshear will be the last Democrat ever elected statewide.

Ever is a very long time.

Quite.

There’s a very good chance he’s the last in our lifetimes.

Anyway, I think the one red state Democratic Lieutenant Governor who does have a good chance of winning the next gubernatorial race would be Kansas’s David Toland, but under the conditions that it’s a Trump midterm and that Kris Kobach is his opponent.

[Duke of York]

Titanium R.

Beshear will be the last Democrat ever elected statewide.

He won't be the last ever.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Because of education polarization, Democrats are increasingly favored in low turnout elections.  Being a weird off-year, if Coleman were running against a bad Republican candidate, and if the national environment weren't in a particularly anti-Democratic mood, I could see her being competitive.  She'd still be a long shot, but gubernatorial races often produce surprising results.

[Schiff for Senate]

Titanium R.

Beshear will be the last Democrat ever elected statewide.

Ever is a very long time.

And Kentucky is if anything moving slightly left at the federal level!

While I agree KY will elect Democrats at some point in the future, presidential/federal trends will have absolutely nothing to do with it. If the race is in any way related to KY's federal politics, it's Safe R from the get-go, even if KY trends a little bit more leftward (which, tbf, could happen - rural KY seems for the most part maxed out for the GOP atp).

[Schiff for Senate]

She would probably crack 40% and avoid being obliterated, but the only way Rs are losing that race is if they nominate a terrible candidate.

Anyway, I agree with this. I can't see KY Democrats making a hattrick. 

[Roll Roons]

She would probably crack 40% and avoid being obliterated, but the only way Rs are losing that race is if they nominate a terrible candidate.

And that very well might happen.

[wnwnwn]

Titanium R.

Beshear will be the last Democrat ever elected statewide.

I think there is a small possibilitty on democrats doing a comeback in appalachia, but it won't be in this decade nor in the next.

[President Johnson]

Very likely a Republican pickup, unless they completely screw up and nominate a Roy-Moore-tier candidate.

Even if Beshear continues to ride on high approval ratings, these usually aren't transferable to their second-in-command when it comes to winning the next open election.

[Tekken_Guy]

Very likely a Republican pickup, unless they completely screw up and nominate a Roy-Moore-tier candidate.

Even if Beshear continues to ride on high approval ratings, these usually aren't transferable to their second-in-command when it comes to winning the next open election.

Exactly this.

Case in point, Mike Cooney.

[President Johnson]

Very likely a Republican pickup, unless they completely screw up and nominate a Roy-Moore-tier candidate.

Even if Beshear continues to ride on high approval ratings, these usually aren't transferable to their second-in-command when it comes to winning the next open election.

Exactly this.

Case in point, Mike Cooney.

I thought of him as well. The same applies to the presidential level: Nixon in 1960 and Al Gore in 2000 should have easily won given the outgoing president's popularity, Clinton in 2016 to a lesser extent. Only in 1988 it worked, but Dukakis was a weak candidate running an atrocious campaign.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Very likely a Republican pickup, unless they completely screw up and nominate a Roy-Moore-tier candidate.

Even if Beshear continues to ride on high approval ratings, these usually aren't transferable to their second-in-command when it comes to winning the next open election.

Exactly this.

Case in point, Mike Cooney.

I thought of him as well. The same applies to the presidential level: Nixon in 1960 and Al Gore in 2000 should have easily won given the outgoing president's popularity, Clinton in 2016 to a lesser extent. Only in 1988 it worked, but Dukakis was a weak candidate running an atrocious campaign.

And the electoral map was simply stacked against northern democrats in those days too .