Monmouth: Trump +2

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1758176713337430482

[jaichind]

It was tied back in Dec

[Minnesota Mike]

It was tied back in Dec

It's still tied.

[jaichind]

It was tied back in Dec

It's still tied.

I may be reading the poll wrong but it seems this poll has it Trump +2

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It was tied back in Dec

It's still tied.

I may be reading the poll wrong but it seems this poll has it Trump +2

+2 is a virtual tie though

[Minnesota Mike]

It was tied back in Dec

It's still tied.

I may be reading the poll wrong but it seems this poll has it Trump +2

Within MOE is tied.

[Redban]

4.3% MOE.

The +2 lead is anything from Trump +10 to Biden +6 ... if you're going to cite MOE for every poll, you'll go nowhere. At some point, you've got to take the numbers as they are

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

4.3% MOE.

The +2 lead is anything from Trump +10 to Biden +6 ... if you're going to cite MOE for every poll, you'll go nowhere. At some point, you've got to take the numbers as they are

When has the Rs won a Special eDays they have lost every Eday since 22, these are polls not votes and you think that you would have learned from Rs loss on Tues Trump is going to Trial and highly likely to be convicted in NY before Eday

[Senator Incitatus]

Reminded once again that 90% of this forum does not know what margin of error is or how statistical sampling works.

[Birdish]

Im not a fan of this "Definetly/Probably" thing Monmouth has started doing. It seems like a sneaky way to avoid getting the race wrong.

[Tekken_Guy]

Another thing of note is that Trump’s lead entirely comes from the “probably” category, indicating his strength is with very low-propensity voters.

[kwabbit]

It was tied back in Dec

It's still tied.

I may be reading the poll wrong but it seems this poll has it Trump +2

+2 is a virtual tie though

No it's not. Results are not uniformly distributed within the margin of error, they are normally distributed. That means that Monmouth is estimating Trump +2 as the most likely outcome, not a tie. There's a certain chance that the sample is drawing from a 'tied' or better population, but that is less than a 50% chance and also the same chance the sample is drawing from a Trump +4 or better population. Consequently, Monmouth going from tied to Trump +2 is not them getting an equivalent result. It is them estimating a 2 point swing to Trump. Again, there's a certain chance that the population has not changed, but a much greater chance that it has.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1758179278338814044

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1758179278338814044

You really believe polls like I told Redban after Tues lost and they aren't votes, Rs lost how many special edays and they supposed to pick up seats not lose seats when out of WH that's why these polls are bogus and they are only MOE

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Reminded once again that 90% of this forum does not know what margin of error is or how statistical sampling works.

The MoE shifted 2 points towards Trump, so it basically is a stupid defense.