2024 Republicans have outperformed Trump by 5.8% on average in special elections, similar to 2021

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Still not good, but so far Rs are at least holding up a bit better since late 2023 vs 2022 + WI SC.

[DrScholl]

To be fair adding those Georgia legislative races to the average can skew the average to be a little more favorable to Republicans than it should be. Every other race was a general election, not a jungle primary. If anything those were ideological primaries where the action was amongst the Republicans and the Democrats were not a factor.

[Epaminondas]

To be fair adding those Georgia legislative races to the average can skew the average to be a little more favorable to Republicans than it should be. Every other race was a general election, not a jungle primary. If anything those were ideological primaries where the action was amongst the Republicans and the Democrats were not a factor.

Back of the enveloppe maths shows these 2 specials account for almost the entire GOP advantage. Without them it's R+1.

[Spectator]

I can tell you that being a Columbia County, GA resident, I had no idea a Democrat was even running. CJ Pearson seems to have Trump signs alongside his, so I figured he branded himself as the Trump Republican intentionally. Richardson had “Republican” on all his signs, so I just assumed it was a Republican primary. Had no idea it was a jungle election. I didn’t bother to vote though since I didn’t care.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

To be fair adding those Georgia legislative races to the average can skew the average to be a little more favorable to Republicans than it should be. Every other race was a general election, not a jungle primary. If anything those were ideological primaries where the action was amongst the Republicans and the Democrats were not a factor.

Back of the enveloppe maths shows these 2 specials account for almost the entire GOP advantage. Without them it's R+1.

This thread is a good example of making data say what you want it to say

[Brittain33]

Real “average personal net worth in a bar with Bill Gates” energy

[DrScholl]

To be fair adding those Georgia legislative races to the average can skew the average to be a little more favorable to Republicans than it should be. Every other race was a general election, not a jungle primary. If anything those were ideological primaries where the action was amongst the Republicans and the Democrats were not a factor.

Back of the enveloppe maths shows these 2 specials account for almost the entire GOP advantage. Without them it's R+1.

Which really tells what the actual picture is, a slight Republican overperformance but not nearly enough to make a difference a many places.