TX-SEN 2026: Joaquin Castro vs. Ronny Jackson (Trump midterm)

[Tekken_Guy]

Who wins TX-SEN in 2026 in a Trump midterm?

[DrScholl]

Castro. Under those conditions I feel like all of Jackson's personal issues would pile up and people would start talking because that's how these things usually go.

[Roll Roons]

Castro. Under those conditions I feel like all of Jackson's personal issues would pile up and people would start talking because that's how these things usually go.

Yeah, I think a second Trump midterm is when Democrats would finally break through in Texas, especially against a Republican who is extremely MAGA and has a lot of baggage that hasn't really been explored because of how safe his seat is.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If Cornyn were to retire, I think Rs would nominate Crenshaw.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If Cornyn were to retire, I think Rs would nominate Crenshaw.

MAGA hates Crenshaw and Trump dislikes him too.
I'm 100% sure Crenshaw will run of Cornyn retires, but I'm even more sure than Cruz/Trump/FreedomCaucus will endorse someone to challenge him (likely Ronny Jackson).
I don't think Crenshaw can win a primary after his antics.

[MargieCat]

I think Cornyn is likely to receive a primary challenge from someone like Paxton, Patrick, or Ronny Jackson, should he choose to run again.

Should he not choose to run again, I expect a clown car will form on the GOP side. Not very often to statewide seats open up in Texas. It would be a similar dynamic to California's senate race this year, except with Republicans. Some possibilities would be Paxton, Patrick, Buckingham, Crenshaw, Van Duyne, Ronny Jackson, Nehls, and Will Hurd. Maybe Mayra Flores tries to run if she fails to win her house seat back.

I do think current statewide officeholders probably have a leg up compared to House members.

[Progressive Pessimist]

In a Trump midterm the state may finally flip.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Castro is a bad nominee who is pro-Palestine and supports illegal immigration. Choose a good, more moderate Dem who is tough on the border, not too hostile to the oil and gas industry, and Dems could win this.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Castro is a bad nominee who is pro-Palestine and supports illegal immigration. Choose a good, more moderate Dem who is tough on the border, not too hostile to the oil and gas industry, and Dems could win this.

Second this. Someone like Allred could win. Castro, no.

[Dan the Roman]

Castro is a bad nominee who is pro-Palestine and supports illegal immigration. Choose a good, more moderate Dem who is tough on the border, not too hostile to the oil and gas industry, and Dems could win this.

This is a wider problem for Democrats in Texas, and was evident in their failure to seriously challenge Paxton in 2022.

The demographic gains have overwhelmingly occurred in the Wendy Davis white liberal and activist urban latino segments and tended to squeeze out the Henry Cuellar moderate Hispanic wing at the same time the Wendy Davis type is too "West Coast" for Southern suburbanites.

With the right candidates, Texas could probably flip pretty soon, but instead it will come down to whether the GOP commits suicide. Crenshaws could probably beat Davis or Castro types for another decade easily.

[Spectator]

Castro. Under those conditions I feel like all of Jackson's personal issues would pile up and people would start talking because that's how these things usually go.

Yeah, I think a second Trump midterm is when Democrats would finally break through in Texas, especially against a Republican who is extremely MAGA and has a lot of baggage that hasn't really been explored because of how safe his seat is.

I agree, I think Texas breaks it’s Republican monopoly in the next Trump term, whether the midterm or in 2028. Maybe Roland Gutierrez if he does respectably in this year’s primary.

[Spectator]

I think Ken Paxton primarying Cornyn would prop this race onto the map instantly. Agree that Democrats need a toned-down moderate hispanic.

[Ferguson97]

Democrats would have a great shot at beating Ronny Jackson in a Trump midterm, but Castro is a weak candidate who could blow the race.

[Schiff for Senate]

Castro. Under those conditions I feel like all of Jackson's personal issues would pile up and people would start talking because that's how these things usually go.

Castro. Under those conditions I feel like all of Jackson's personal issues would pile up and people would start talking because that's how these things usually go.

Yeah, I think a second Trump midterm is when Democrats would finally break through in Texas, especially against a Republican who is extremely MAGA and has a lot of baggage that hasn't really been explored because of how safe his seat is.

Can someone elaborate on Jackson's baggage? I'm definitely missing something here.

[Schiff for Senate]

Castro is a bad nominee who is pro-Palestine and supports illegal immigration. Choose a good, more moderate Dem who is tough on the border, not too hostile to the oil and gas industry, and Dems could win this.

Eh, you're definitely overestimating the importance voters give to actual policy positions. And let's be honest, a "moderate" Democrat would be hammered by the GOP and its campaigning arms just as hard.

Castro is definitely much stronger than a Wendy Davis or (2024) Beto O'Rourke. Yes, they would be terrible candidates, but he's quite different from them.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Castro is a bad nominee who is pro-Palestine and supports illegal immigration. Choose a good, more moderate Dem who is tough on the border, not too hostile to the oil and gas industry, and Dems could win this.

Eh, you're definitely overestimating the importance voters give to actual policy positions. And let's be honest, a "moderate" Democrat would be hammered by the GOP and its campaigning arms just as hard.

Castro is definitely much stronger than a Wendy Davis or (2024) Beto O'Rourke. Yes, they would be terrible candidates, but he's quite different from them.

This whole “it doesn’t matter if you’re moderate because the GOP will attack you anyway” is so stupid. Obviously the GOP will attack but the attack will be much more potent if it’s true. It’s easy to call Castro open borders when he literally called for decriminalizing border crossings and free healthcare for illegals. If Tom Suozzi had run on Castro’s platform you think he would have won!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I can't wait Sen elected ALLRED Reparations and DH