What will change if Trump is convicted?

[°Leprechaun]

Will Biden gain more support?
If you think Trump is more likely at this point in time to win, could a Trump conviction change the map?
If Trump is in prison could he govern effectively?

My thoughts are that a conviction of Trump would help Biden, if only slightly.

Edit:

https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/galvanize#English

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luigi_Galvani

[Sir Mohamed]

Tbh, I doubt there's much of an impact overall. Opinions are pretty much set in stone after almost a decade of Trump's s-show, that constantly sunk to new lows.

The biggest effect in the election wouldn't be voters that flipped from Trump to Biden, but conservative lukewarm about Trump just staying home. Of course, since the election will almost certainly be close, it might be enough to assure Trump's defeat. We won't be headed a landslide, although it should be one.

What I don't see at all is Trump being replaced as GOP nominee or the RNC even making a serious attempt to remove him as their candidate. Their propaganda machine will frame it as a political witch hunt by the Biden Admin as he "can't beat Trump in a regular election".

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Assuming you are talking about the Jan. 6 trial and not the NY trial, I am quite confident Trump will not be elected President if he is convicted and either in prison or under house arrest on Election Day.

If Trump is convicted prior to the GOP convention, I still predict he will -not- be the Republican nominee.

[SnowLabrador]

Trump voters will be galvanized further. Other than that, nothing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump voters will be galvanized further. Other than that, nothing.

They'd be coated in zinc?  That seems rather drastic.

[SnowLabrador]

Trump voters will be galvanized further. Other than that, nothing.

They'd be coated in zinc?  That seems rather drastic.

I meant that they'd be even more motivated to vote. But given that every vote counts the same no matter how the voter feels about it, I don't think it'll have an impact.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I still think it will be a big deal. The sacred polls we've had already suggest movement from Trump if he is, and Democrats can message on Trump being a criminal without reluctance anymore. It will probably give some pause to consider voting for a convicted felon.

The timing matters though, of course. Ideally maybe within the last month of the election.

[Tony]

A Trump conviction will NOT change the mind of his cultist followers (~33%).  It will change the mind of many moderate conservatives and this will result in them staying home or voting for a 3rd party candidate.  It will also lean the "swing voter" to either vote for Biden or a 3rd party candidate.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I think it could hold sway with independents. Even if they think the charges are dumb, people on the fence will consider not voting for someone who could be facing prison time. But not too much.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Undecideds go to Biden, some moderate cons stay home

[Crumpets]

I think there would be a non-negligible contingent of "I'm worried about Biden's age and some of his policies, but I sure as hell am not going to vote to put a convicted felon in the White House" independents. Would it be enough to flip a Trump victory to a Biden victory? I guess it depends how close the election is in a vacuum, but all indications are of another close election.

I really don't see many people who would be Biden/third party/non-voters who would show up only in the case of a Trump conviction. Maybe some very fringe red pill types, but I really, really doubt there's all that many.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Then he will lose

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

He’ll initially drop in the polls, but will rebound quickly - just like literally every other Trump related hoax.

[Compuzled_One]

His support will crater due to lack of any interviews, rallies, etc., which is what captivates his followers. He might be DQ'ed to depending on how the SC rules. The question becomes by how much he'll loose-assuming the RNC doesn't just declare the primaries void and replace him. The Republicans still loose due to how undemocratic this'd be, the aftershock, and remaining Trump supporters not backing the new nominee, but Trump and his influence would be excised and the party able to win again in the future, for better or worse.

[TodayJunior]

Massive drop with Indy’s and he will never recover. His ceiling will be 43-45% of the national vote.

[Mr. Smith]

nothing.

[pbrower2a]

Americans across the political spectrum hate criminality. Trump's base will be solid, butabout everyone else will run for him. Just look at how low the approval ratings are for Senator Menendez (D-NJ).

We can't yet measure the results, largely because there are no convictions yet...and which we must not assume until they happen.