Split ticket Counties

[SilverStar]

Counties that will vote differently for Senate and President

PA:Trump/Casey Counties
Beaver
Berks

WI:Trump/Baldwin Counties
Vernon
Richalnd
Crawford
Grant
Lafayette
Kenosha
Racine
Winnebago
Brown

OH:Trump/Brown Counties
Erie
Wood
Portage
Trumbull
Mahoning
Lake

MI:Trump/Slotkin Counties
Clinton

MT:Trump/Tester Counties
Roosevelt
Hill
Park
Cascade

MD:Biden/Hogan Counties
Frederick
Kent
Tablot
Ann Arundel

FL:Trump/DMP Counties
Pinellas
 
TX:Trump/Allred
Denton
Zapata

[Spectator]

Counties that will vote differently for Senate and President

PA:Trump/Casey Counties
Beaver
Berks
Erie
Northampton
Monroe

WI:Trump/Baldwin Counties
Vernon
Richland
Crawford
Grant
Lafayette
Kenosha
Racine
Winnebago
Brown
Door

OH:Trump/Brown Counties
Erie
Wood
Portage
Trumbull
Mahoning
Lake
Delaware

MI:Trump/Slotkin Counties
Clinton
Muskegon
Saginaw

MT:Trump/Tester Counties
Roosevelt
Hill
Park
Cascade
Lewis & Clark

MD:Biden/Hogan Counties
Frederick
Kent
Tablot
Ann Arundel

FL:Trump/DMP Counties
Pinellas
Miami
 
TX:Trump/Allred
Denton
Zapata
Collin
Nueces
Brewster

My list

[Schiff for Senate]

Counties that will vote differently for Senate and President

PA:Trump/Casey Counties
Beaver
Berks

WI:Trump/Baldwin Counties
Vernon
Richalnd
Crawford
Grant
Lafayette
Kenosha
Racine
Winnebago
Brown

OH:Trump/Brown Counties
Erie
Wood
Portage
Trumbull
Mahoning
Lake

MI:Trump/Slotkin Counties
Clinton

MT:Trump/Tester Counties
Roosevelt
Hill
Park
Cascade

MD:Biden/Hogan Counties
Frederick
Kent
Tablot
Ann Arundel

FL:Trump/DMP Counties
Pinellas
 
TX:Trump/Allred
Denton
Zapata

Some of my nitpicks after eyeballing your list:

1. What exactly makes you think Trump will outperform downballot Republicans in Denton County, of all places?
2. I absolutely cannot see Tester winning all those counties yet missing out on Lewis & Clark (which voted for Trump by ~4 points).
3. Lake in Ohio is definitely too far gone to vote for Brown. And keep in mind it's not one of those stereotypical Obama-Trump counties, either; it voted Romney in 2012, so it's been more consistently Republican compared to Trumbull, Mahoning, etc. (both of which voted for Obama by north of 20 points).
4. Of the top of my head, I'm not very familiar with the margins in some of the other WI counties, but Grant County voted for Trump by 13 or 14 points, iirc. Yes it voted for Baldwin by quite a bit in 2018, but that was in a D wave and there's been rural bleeding since then. Keep in mind that it voted for Michels in 2022 and wasn't all that close.
5. I don't think Casey will do well enough to hold on in Beaver, tbh (i.e. I don't expect him to match Shapiro's performance, or come close enough to hold on to Beaver). I'd call it Lean R. Yes, he won it in 2018, but that was a midterm with decreased polarization; 2012 was back when the counties ringing Pittsburgh were far less Republican.

[SilverStar]

Counties that will vote differently for Senate and President

PA:Trump/Casey Counties
Beaver
Berks

WI:Trump/Baldwin Counties
Vernon
Richalnd
Crawford
Grant
Lafayette
Kenosha
Racine
Winnebago
Brown

OH:Trump/Brown Counties
Erie
Wood
Portage
Trumbull
Mahoning
Lake

MI:Trump/Slotkin Counties
Clinton

MT:Trump/Tester Counties
Roosevelt
Hill
Park
Cascade

MD:Biden/Hogan Counties
Frederick
Kent
Tablot
Ann Arundel

FL:Trump/DMP Counties
Pinellas
 
TX:Trump/Allred
Denton
Zapata

Some of my nitpicks after eyeballing your list:

1. What exactly makes you think Trump will outperform downballot Republicans in Denton County, of all places?
2. I absolutely cannot see Tester winning all those counties yet missing out on Lewis & Clark (which voted for Trump by ~4 points).
3. Lake in Ohio is definitely too far gone to vote for Brown. And keep in mind it's not one of those stereotypical Obama-Trump counties, either; it voted Romney in 2012, so it's been more consistently Republican compared to Trumbull, Mahoning, etc. (both of which voted for Obama by north of 20 points).
4. Of the top of my head, I'm not very familiar with the margins in some of the other WI counties, but Grant County voted for Trump by 13 or 14 points, iirc. Yes it voted for Baldwin by quite a bit in 2018, but that was in a D wave and there's been rural bleeding since then. Keep in mind that it voted for Michels in 2022 and wasn't all that close.
5. I don't think Casey will do well enough to hold on in Beaver, tbh (i.e. I don't expect him to match Shapiro's performance, or come close enough to hold on to Beaver). I'd call it Lean R. Yes, he won it in 2018, but that was a midterm with decreased polarization; 2012 was back when the counties ringing Pittsburgh were far less Republican.

1.Ted Cruz will underperfom Trump,particularly with College students and minorties causing Denton County to vote narrowly for Trump and Allred,Allred also gets a minor home region
advantage
2.Lewis and Clark is a very likely flip for Biden in 2024,if it won't flip it will be a Tester/Trump County.
3.Tim Ryan only lost Lake by 6,you really think that incumbency+Brown's strengh as candidate+bluer year than 2022 can't close a 6 point gap?
4.Baldwin can run ahead up by 13-17 in rural Wisconsin,Hovde is just a more lame version of Dave McCormick and Clarck is nuts.
5.We already talked about it,Beaver is a tossup on the Senate race.
Casey is a strong incumbent and McCormick is a bad fit,Shapiro only lost Beaver by 4 in 2020.

[Schiff for Senate]

Counties that will vote differently for Senate and President

PA:Trump/Casey Counties
Beaver
Berks

WI:Trump/Baldwin Counties
Vernon
Richalnd
Crawford
Grant
Lafayette
Kenosha
Racine
Winnebago
Brown

OH:Trump/Brown Counties
Erie
Wood
Portage
Trumbull
Mahoning
Lake

MI:Trump/Slotkin Counties
Clinton

MT:Trump/Tester Counties
Roosevelt
Hill
Park
Cascade

MD:Biden/Hogan Counties
Frederick
Kent
Tablot
Ann Arundel

FL:Trump/DMP Counties
Pinellas
 
TX:Trump/Allred
Denton
Zapata

Some of my nitpicks after eyeballing your list:

1. What exactly makes you think Trump will outperform downballot Republicans in Denton County, of all places?
2. I absolutely cannot see Tester winning all those counties yet missing out on Lewis & Clark (which voted for Trump by ~4 points).
3. Lake in Ohio is definitely too far gone to vote for Brown. And keep in mind it's not one of those stereotypical Obama-Trump counties, either; it voted Romney in 2012, so it's been more consistently Republican compared to Trumbull, Mahoning, etc. (both of which voted for Obama by north of 20 points).
4. Of the top of my head, I'm not very familiar with the margins in some of the other WI counties, but Grant County voted for Trump by 13 or 14 points, iirc. Yes it voted for Baldwin by quite a bit in 2018, but that was in a D wave and there's been rural bleeding since then. Keep in mind that it voted for Michels in 2022 and wasn't all that close.
5. I don't think Casey will do well enough to hold on in Beaver, tbh (i.e. I don't expect him to match Shapiro's performance, or come close enough to hold on to Beaver). I'd call it Lean R. Yes, he won it in 2018, but that was a midterm with decreased polarization; 2012 was back when the counties ringing Pittsburgh were far less Republican.

1.Ted Cruz will underperfom Trump,particularly with College students and minorties causing Denton County to vote narrowly for Trump and Allred,Allred also gets a minor home region
advantage
2.Lewis and Clark is a very likely flip for Biden in 2024,if it won't flip it will be a Tester/Trump County.
3.Tim Ryan only lost Lake by 6,you really think that incumbency+Brown's strengh as candidate+bluer year than 2022 can't close a 6 point gap?
4.Baldwin can run ahead up by 13-17 in rural Wisconsin,Hovde is just a more lame version of Dave McCormick and Clarck is nuts.
5.We already talked about it,Beaver is a tossup on the Senate race.
Casey is a strong incumbent and McCormick is a bad fit,Shapiro only lost Beaver by 4 in 2020.

She most certainly will not outperform by that much, cartographically beautiful as it would be if she did. Even with Clarke, 13 point advantage is really pushing it, let alone 17.