Iran is still on only its 2nd Supreme Leader, Khamenei since ‘89. The future?

[Blue3]

The Islamic Republic of Iran, around for 45 years, has only had two Supreme Leaders. Its charismatic  founder, and the more technocratic and subtle Khamanei for the last 35 years since 1989.

He’s 84 now, so he could still live a while longer, but we are definitely closer to the end of his reign than its beginning.

His election was also interesting, since they had to modify the constitution since Khamenei was not an ayatollah but a former elected president.

The Islamic Republic has a lot of separation of powers, with checks and balances, built into it. But the Supreme Leader is definitely a central figure, even if not the all-powerful dictator figure that the title implies.

Whenever he does pass away, we will probably have the biggest opportunity for a shift in Iran.



How do we think the transition will go?

Is there a short-list of who’s most likely to be elected by the Assembly of Constitutional Experts?

Is it likely to be someone similar in age, a caretaker, or someone more from Generation X/Y, who could connect better to the population since
25% of Iran’s population is under the age of 15.
Only 7% of Iran’s population is over the age of 65.
The median age is 31, with a supermajority of the country younger than 40.

What changes are we likely to expect?

[Pres Mike]

Khamenei wants the current President, Ebrahim Raisi, to succeed him

[Blue3]

Khamenei wants the current President, Ebrahim Raisi, to succeed him

Interesting. This one has been much more quiet so far. Ahmadinejad was crazy and militant, and Rouhani was much more pro-Western and diplomatic. I haven’t heard anything about Raisi.

I do also wonder if he might change his mind, or if the assembly would definitely feel obliged to go with his choice.

[Pres Mike]

Khamenei wants the current President, Ebrahim Raisi, to succeed him

Interesting. This one has been much more quiet so far. Ahmadinejad was crazy and militant, and Rouhani was much more pro-Western and diplomatic. I haven’t heard anything about Raisi.

I do also wonder if he might change his mind, or if the assembly would definitely feel obliged to go with his choice.

When running for president, he seemed unprepared for interviews. Felt out of place in front of cameras. His background is more academic and judicial, not political. But he is very conservative and hardliner.

The last election was rigged for him (he lost to Rouhani in 2017) to prepare him to take over Khamenei's spot

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Khamenei was President before so he's been a national leader for 42 years.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Those beard guys are practically immortal.

[CumbrianLefty]

Hopefully the future is better than the past!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

While Hannity makes him out to be some Al Baghdadi-like irrational actor, it is worth remembering that this Ayatollah if anything held Ahmadinejad on a tight leash and has intervened politically to keep him out of office. That’s always stuck with me.

Ofc besides his obviously odious anti-Jew rhetoric, I always thought Ahmadinejad (from their perspective) was a strong solid leader. So if the Ayatollah wants him out of power, it must mean he’s relatively pragmatic instead of being some fanatical zealot.

[lfromnj]

While Hannity makes him out to be some Al Baghdadi-like irrational actor, it is worth remembering that this Ayatollah if anything held Ahmadinejad on a tight leash and has intervened politically to keep him out of office. That’s always stuck with me.

Ofc besides his obviously odious anti-Jew rhetoric, I always thought Ahmadinejad (from their perspective) was a strong solid leader. So if the Ayatollah wants him out of power, it must mean he’s relatively pragmatic instead of being some fanatical zealot.

Religion is definitely the main reason for domestic issues but it is still interesting how Iran is now the guarantor of the worlds oldest Christian nation(Armenia)

[PSOL]

Khamenei has basically thrown any Gorbachevs in prison or house arrest, he’s basically ensured that the Islamic republic will survive unchanged when he’s alive.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Khamenei has basically thrown any Gorbachevs in prison or house arrest, he’s basically ensured that the Islamic republic will survive unchanged when he’s alive.

The question is what happens if he's still in office when he loses (enough of) his powers. Mugabe seems like the realistic good ending for him, especially if he hasn't a natural successor.

[PSOL]

Khamenei has basically thrown any Gorbachevs in prison or house arrest, he’s basically ensured that the Islamic republic will survive unchanged when he’s alive.

The question is what happens if he's still in office when he loses (enough of) his powers. Mugabe seems like the realistic good ending for him, especially if he hasn't a natural successor.

The IRGC is his private army in the worst possible circumstances before getting to that point.

[Blue3]

While Hannity makes him out to be some Al Baghdadi-like irrational actor, it is worth remembering that this Ayatollah if anything held Ahmadinejad on a tight leash and has intervened politically to keep him out of office. That’s always stuck with me.

Ofc besides his obviously odious anti-Jew rhetoric, I always thought Ahmadinejad (from their perspective) was a strong solid leader. So if the Ayatollah wants him out of power, it must mean he’s relatively pragmatic instead of being some fanatical zealot.

I don't think he's an ayatollah, just like how Khamenei isn't/wasn't an ayatollah.

[Estrella]

While Hannity makes him out to be some Al Baghdadi-like irrational actor, it is worth remembering that this Ayatollah if anything held Ahmadinejad on a tight leash and has intervened politically to keep him out of office. That’s always stuck with me.

Ofc besides his obviously odious anti-Jew rhetoric, I always thought Ahmadinejad (from their perspective) was a strong solid leader. So if the Ayatollah wants him out of power, it must mean he’s relatively pragmatic instead of being some fanatical zealot.

Though this was mostly because Ahmadinejad is a populist who often clashed with the clerical establishment on domestic policy. There’s a reason why the clergy and IRGC consider him a part of a “deviant current”.

[KaiserDave]

Ahmadinejad was actually much more of a threat to the establishment than Rouhani, who was ultimately very conservative. Firebrand populists are a bigger problem than moderate clerics. He often contradicts state policy, like the fact he supports Ukraine and said "the [Ukrainian] resistance uncovered the Satanic plots of enemies of mankind."

[KaiserDave]

I should be clear though that Ahmadinejad is still unambiguously a disgusting character.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ahmadinejad was actually much more of a threat to the establishment than Rouhani, who was ultimately very conservative. Firebrand populists are a bigger problem than moderate clerics. He often contradicts state policy, like the fact he supports Ukraine and said "the [Ukrainian] resistance uncovered the Satanic plots of enemies of mankind."

What, I love Ahmadinejad now.

[PSOL]

Ahmadinejad was actually much more of a threat to the establishment than Rouhani, who was ultimately very conservative. Firebrand populists are a bigger problem than moderate clerics. He often contradicts state policy, like the fact he supports Ukraine and said "the [Ukrainian] resistance uncovered the Satanic plots of enemies of mankind."

What, I love Ahmadinejad now.

When I compared the current war with the Iran-Iraq war, I wasn’t kidding. Same dynamics, same rational responses anyone should have.

[Dan the Roman]

Ahmadinejad was actually much more of a threat to the establishment than Rouhani, who was ultimately very conservative. Firebrand populists are a bigger problem than moderate clerics. He often contradicts state policy, like the fact he supports Ukraine and said "the [Ukrainian] resistance uncovered the Satanic plots of enemies of mankind."

If Ahmadinejad had been President ten years later, you would have had a Trump/Ahmadinejad summit.

Iranian politics is not really being driven by ideology anymore so much as clique-based power struggles, and Khamenei's clique is operating a threat matrix based not on who is potentially a threat to him, but who is a potential threat to a preferred successor. Raisi/Mojtaba are fairly weak figures, so that requires treating pretty much anyone with any independent power-base as a threat.

[Samof94]

While Hannity makes him out to be some Al Baghdadi-like irrational actor, it is worth remembering that this Ayatollah if anything held Ahmadinejad on a tight leash and has intervened politically to keep him out of office. That’s always stuck with me.

Ofc besides his obviously odious anti-Jew rhetoric, I always thought Ahmadinejad (from their perspective) was a strong solid leader. So if the Ayatollah wants him out of power, it must mean he’s relatively pragmatic instead of being some fanatical zealot.

Didn't he have some limited education and housing reforms?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I should be clear though that Ahmadinejad is still unambiguously a disgusting character.

A colorful character, none the less.

[PSOL]

Ahmadinejad was actually much more of a threat to the establishment than Rouhani, who was ultimately very conservative. Firebrand populists are a bigger problem than moderate clerics. He often contradicts state policy, like the fact he supports Ukraine and said "the [Ukrainian] resistance uncovered the Satanic plots of enemies of mankind."

If Ahmadinejad had been President ten years later, you would have had a Trump/Ahmadinejad summit.

Iranian politics is not really being driven by ideology anymore so much as clique-based power struggles, and Khamenei's clique is operating a threat matrix based not on who is potentially a threat to him, but who is a potential threat to a preferred successor. Raisi/Mojtaba are fairly weak figures, so that requires treating pretty much anyone with any independent power-base as a threat.

Bold of you to assume that it ever was.

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

The Supreme Leader is a mostly ceremonial post by now. Actual power rests actually with the presidency and IRGC.