Florida, Missouri, and Ohio swinging GOP

[mileslunn]

Florida is more urbanized than most of US while Missouri and Ohio are average thus swing state made sense as both have metro areas over a million, but they don't dominate like in solid blue states and both have rural population comparable to US as whole so what is reason all three are swinging rightward?  Missouri I am guessing due to large white Evangelicals and being on northern edge of Bible belt.  Florida probably due to lots of seniors but being more urban than most of US might cancel that like Arizona does.  Ohio seemed like a perfect fit for a swing state but post Obama is solid red?  Iowa makes sense unlike Ohio as I never really understood why Democrats were competitive in Iowa considering how rural it is.  However Ohio has Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati which are decent size metro areas while largest in Iowa is Des Moines which is about same size as Toledo in Ohio.

[GAinDC]

Florida is an extremely unique state that doesn't always follow nationwide political trends.


1) Southeast FL is effectively an expat community of Latin Americans who have fled leftist governments. No other part of America has that kind of concentration of immigrants and refugees who make such a large percentage of the population and the electorate.

2) There is a self-selection bias happening in Florida, with conservatives moving to the state because they see it as a right-wing paradise. Thank people like Trump and other members of his inner circle who have moved there, and Ron DeSantis for turning FL into an incubator of the right's policy wish list.

[wnwnwn]

1 Parts of Florida has southern style electoral dynamics. Southern Florida has an unusual number of urban latino republicans.
2 Missouri is a semi southern state, with some great plains parts.
3 Ohio electorally nowadays is Indiana with more cities.

[mileslunn]

My guesses so far are

1.  Florida has large senior population as well as large Cuban and latter votes much more heavily GOP than other Hispanics or even urban whites do.  Seniors are mostly urban but many moving to secondary cities that are quite sprawled out.  In addition boomers just retiring whereas in 2012 it was mostly silent generation retiring so perhaps a significant portion of senior population has moved to state since 2012 while likewise I would venture to guess that of over 65 population in 2012, at least 1/3 maybe as high as half are now dead. 

2.  Missouri agreed is sort of a southern state and has large Evangelical population.  That being said while rural areas see GOP run up margins more than in states to north, it is not as racially polarized as states further south are.  Democrats still get in high 30s amongst whites and likely win white vote outright in urban areas while in suburban areas GOP probably only barely wins white vote.  St. Louis & Kansas City while not biggest in US, still both have over a million.  That being said fact good chunk of suburbs are in neighboring states probably helps GOP too.  If entire St. Louis and Kansas City metro area were in Missouri, it would probably be more like Ohio I am guessing.

3.  Ohio is interesting as urban vs. rural split close to national average.  It is just as urbanized as Pennsylvania and Michigan while more so than Wisconsin.  Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati all have over a million people in greater area.  While Cleveland always solidly Democrat, Columbus has moved from swing to solidly Democrat and even Cincinnati which was once solidly GOP has swung opposite direction of state.  Biden won Hamilton County by double digits while Obama only by single and Bush in 2004 won it and I believe prior to 2008 it always voted more GOP than state as a whole, was bang on under Obama but voted to left of state since.  So with three million plus metro areas how does GOP win it so decisively is my question?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Ohio is interesting as urban vs. rural split close to national average.  It is just as urbanized as Pennsylvania and Michigan while more so than Wisconsin.  Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati all have over a million people in greater area.  While Cleveland always solidly Democrat, Columbus has moved from swing to solidly Democrat and even Cincinnati which was once solidly GOP has swung opposite direction of state.  Biden won Hamilton County by double digits while Obama only by single and Bush in 2004 won it and I believe prior to 2008 it always voted more GOP than state as a whole, was bang on under Obama but voted to left of state since.  So with three million plus metro areas how does GOP win it so decisively is my question?

The Democratic Party in Ohio was always reliant on running it up in industrial cities and their surrounding areas in the North East like Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown, Warren, Toledo, Sandusky, Toledo and others to make up their large base. That provided with the Democrats a solid base in Ohio and then what the Democrats then had to do from there was to do either well in Cincinnati/Columbus like Obama did or in Appalachian Ohio like Clinton did.

In fact Cincinnati/Columbus trending Democratic actually caused the state to trend Democratic from 2000 to 2012 as well but then from 2012 to 2016 the Democrats just utterly collapsed in North East Ohio outside Cleveland and Akron and the problem with that is that was a core part of their base and without that the democrats have no chance of winning Ohio.



 

[wnwnwn]

Ohio is interesting as urban vs. rural split close to national average.  It is just as urbanized as Pennsylvania and Michigan while more so than Wisconsin.  Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati all have over a million people in greater area.  While Cleveland always solidly Democrat, Columbus has moved from swing to solidly Democrat and even Cincinnati which was once solidly GOP has swung opposite direction of state.  Biden won Hamilton County by double digits while Obama only by single and Bush in 2004 won it and I believe prior to 2008 it always voted more GOP than state as a whole, was bang on under Obama but voted to left of state since.  So with three million plus metro areas how does GOP win it so decisively is my question?

The Democratic Party in Ohio was always reliant on running it up in industrial cities and their surrounding areas in the North East like Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown, Warren, Toledo, Sandusky, Toledo and others to make up their large base. That provided with the Democrats a solid base in Ohio and then what the Democrats then had to do from there was to do either well in Cincinnati/Columbus like Obama did or in Appalachian Ohio like Clinton did.

In fact Cincinnati/Columbus trending Democratic actually caused the state to trend Democratic from 2000 to 2012 as well but then from 2012 to 2016 the Democrats just utterly collapsed in North East Ohio outside Cleveland and Akron and the problem with that is that was a core part of their base and without that the democrats have no chance of winning Ohio.



 

Northwestern Ohio was also part of the Clinton and Obama coalitions to win the state. Out of that, Obama didn't do that bad in southeastern Ohio.

[UWS]

1 Parts of Florida has southern style electoral dynamics. Southern Florida has an unusual number of urban latino republicans.
2 Missouri is a semi southern state, with some great plains parts.
3 Ohio electorally nowadays is Indiana with more cities.

And a lot of those Latino Republicans and Latino Independents are composed of Cuban-Americans and Venezuelan Americans who overwhelmingly went to the Republicans because they see Democrats as too soft on issues like Cuba or Venezuela and they saw free enterprise as system that can guarantee freedom.

[mileslunn]

1 Parts of Florida has southern style electoral dynamics. Southern Florida has an unusual number of urban latino republicans.
2 Missouri is a semi southern state, with some great plains parts.
3 Ohio electorally nowadays is Indiana with more cities.

And a lot of those Latino Republicans and Latino Independents are composed of Cuban-Americans and Venezuelan Americans who overwhelmingly went to the Republicans because they see Democrats as too soft on issues like Cuba or Venezuela and they saw free enterprise as system that can guarantee freedom.

Absolutely and while not a huge part of state, places like Hialeah vote unusually Republican for a suburb, especially one as close and as densely populated as it is.  At same time seems much of the growth in Florida is in secondary cities like Daytona Beach, Melbourne, Fort Myers, Sarasota and GOP dominates those as very sprawled.  Northern part of state is a lot like other parts of Deep South and more racially polarized in voting patterns.  Amongst non-Hispanic whites, Biden did much better in Florida than Georgia.  Big reason won Georgia is much larger African-American population who are reliably Democrat and also better ground game so higher turnout too amongst them.

[2016]

1 Parts of Florida has southern style electoral dynamics. Southern Florida has an unusual number of urban latino republicans.
2 Missouri is a semi southern state, with some great plains parts.
3 Ohio electorally nowadays is Indiana with more cities.

And a lot of those Latino Republicans and Latino Independents are composed of Cuban-Americans and Venezuelan Americans who overwhelmingly went to the Republicans because they see Democrats as too soft on issues like Cuba or Venezuela and they saw free enterprise as system that can guarantee freedom.

Absolutely and while not a huge part of state, places like Hialeah vote unusually Republican for a suburb, especially one as close and as densely populated as it is.  At same time seems much of the growth in Florida is in secondary cities like Daytona Beach, Melbourne, Fort Myers, Sarasota and GOP dominates those as very sprawled.  Northern part of state is a lot like other parts of Deep South and more racially polarized in voting patterns.  Amongst non-Hispanic whites, Biden did much better in Florida than Georgia.  Big reason won Georgia is much larger African-American population who are reliably Democrat and also better ground game so higher turnout too amongst them.

Keep in mind that Venezuelan, Colombian & Nicaraguan Hispanics in South FL were more open voting Democratic during the Obama Presidency but they got really ticked off when the FL & Democratic National Party moved too far to the left in recent years.

[wnwnwn]

1 Parts of Florida has southern style electoral dynamics. Southern Florida has an unusual number of urban latino republicans.
2 Missouri is a semi southern state, with some great plains parts.
3 Ohio electorally nowadays is Indiana with more cities.

And a lot of those Latino Republicans and Latino Independents are composed of Cuban-Americans and Venezuelan Americans who overwhelmingly went to the Republicans because they see Democrats as too soft on issues like Cuba or Venezuela and they saw free enterprise as system that can guarantee freedom.

Absolutely and while not a huge part of state, places like Hialeah vote unusually Republican for a suburb, especially one as close and as densely populated as it is.  At same time seems much of the growth in Florida is in secondary cities like Daytona Beach, Melbourne, Fort Myers, Sarasota and GOP dominates those as very sprawled.  Northern part of state is a lot like other parts of Deep South and more racially polarized in voting patterns.  Amongst non-Hispanic whites, Biden did much better in Florida than Georgia.  Big reason won Georgia is much larger African-American population who are reliably Democrat and also better ground game so higher turnout too amongst them.

Keep in mind that Venezuelan, Colombian & Nicaraguan Hispanics in South FL were more open voting Democratic during the Obama Presidency but they got really ticked off when the FL & Democratic National Party moved too far to the left in recent years.

They are just scared by the Squad and the anti-West discourses by them and other leftists. Those voters usually value the 'american dream' and republicans try to appeal to those feelings. On the issues Biden (well, a younger Biden) could appeal for those type of voters, but we and they know that the party direction doesn't go that way.

[2016]

1 Parts of Florida has southern style electoral dynamics. Southern Florida has an unusual number of urban latino republicans.
2 Missouri is a semi southern state, with some great plains parts.
3 Ohio electorally nowadays is Indiana with more cities.

And a lot of those Latino Republicans and Latino Independents are composed of Cuban-Americans and Venezuelan Americans who overwhelmingly went to the Republicans because they see Democrats as too soft on issues like Cuba or Venezuela and they saw free enterprise as system that can guarantee freedom.

Absolutely and while not a huge part of state, places like Hialeah vote unusually Republican for a suburb, especially one as close and as densely populated as it is.  At same time seems much of the growth in Florida is in secondary cities like Daytona Beach, Melbourne, Fort Myers, Sarasota and GOP dominates those as very sprawled.  Northern part of state is a lot like other parts of Deep South and more racially polarized in voting patterns.  Amongst non-Hispanic whites, Biden did much better in Florida than Georgia.  Big reason won Georgia is much larger African-American population who are reliably Democrat and also better ground game so higher turnout too amongst them.

Keep in mind that Venezuelan, Colombian & Nicaraguan Hispanics in South FL were more open voting Democratic during the Obama Presidency but they got really ticked off when the FL & Democratic National Party moved too far to the left in recent years.

They are just scared by the Squad and the anti-West discourses by them and other leftists. Those voters usually value the 'american dream' and republicans try to appeal to those feelings. On the issues Biden (well, a younger Biden) could appeal for those type of voters, but we and they know that the party direction doesn't go that way.

Part of the reason why Trump cut down the 30-Point margin in Miami-Dade County in 2016 to 8 Points in 2020 is because he won Non-Cubans as well which offset his losses with Puerto Ricans in Orange & Osceola Counties.

Also the African-American Turnout in Miami-Dade has cratered since Obama left Office. Simple thing: If there is a exciting Candidate like Gillum they come out and vote, if they have a boring Candidate like Crist they stay home.

I think the big reasons DeSantis won Florida in 2018 when Democrats had their best ever National Political Environment was he picked a Latina from Dade County as Running Mate and then in the Final Week of the Campaign he released a devastating Ad tying Gillum to socialist Dictators like Maduro and Chavez hence Voters couldn't stomach to vote for Gillum.

[King of Kensington]

There's a bit of an upper/lower Midwest split too due to settlement patterns.  Upper Midwest was more Yankee, while the Lower Midwest was more settled by Pennsylvanians and people from the Upper South. That likely contributes to Ohio being more conservative than Michigan and Wisconsin.

[King of Kensington]

Evangelical share in the Midwest (excluding the Great Plains states).

Evangelical Protestants

Missouri  36%
Indiana  31%
Ohio  29%
Iowa  28%
Michigan  25%
Wisconsin  22%
Illinois  20%
Minnesota  19%

[UWS]

And with the 2019 political crisis in Venezula the Republicans took on the occasion to tell Venezuelan Americans that the Democratic Party was taken over by the left wing that adopted similar socialist positions as Maduro

[2016]

And with the 2019 political crisis in Venezula the Republicans took on the occasion to tell Venezuelan Americans that the Democratic Party was taken over by the left wing that adopted similar socialist positions as Maduro

Yeah, that Ad by DeSantis was pretty devastating. Trump got 34 % in Miami-Dade in 2016, DeSantis got 39 % in Miami-Dade in 2018 and in a race where DeSantis won only by some semi 33,000 Votes that does make a difference.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ohio isn't swing R, Brown is gonna win and Vance is up in a Prez Eday in 2028 either Landsman or Ryan will refile and run against Vance

[DS0816]

Ohio isn't swing R, Brown is gonna win and Vance is up in a Prez Eday in 2028 either Landsman or Ryan will refile and run against Vance

In an election in which there will be a Republican pickup for U.S. President; a U.S. Popular Vote of R+3; carriage of 31 states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, and 312 electoral votes; and Ohio carries by a minimum of R+12 while I am, ahead of time, guessing R+14 or R+15 means a Republican raw-vote margin of +840k maybe +900k (after 2020 unseated Donald Trump carried the state by +475k). 

(In 2020, and what it may become here in 2024, nearly every +60k in raw-vote margin was/is carriage of Ohio by +1 percentage point.)

Democratic incumbent U.S. senator Sherrod Brown would have to be personally loved by Ohio’s voters that they would deliver a spread of around +900k-plus votes to split their 2024 U.S. President [Republican] and U.S. Senate [Democratic] votes. And they would do so while the top issue, for many, is Inflation … and that the president of the United States, also affiliated with the same party as Brown, is getting denied a second term.