How did the Tennessee GOP gerrymander Davidson County?

[Samof94]

How did they dilute Nashville's vote exactly so they would now be represented by two Republicans no matter how the people there voted?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

How did they dilute Nashville's vote exactly so they would now be represented by two Republicans no matter how the people there voted?

It is pretty simple. You just split up the Democratic voting areas so that they are split between multiple districts, each with a larger number of Republican voters in the nearby Republican-voting counties in central Tennessee which all voted ~65-80% for Trump.

[Smash255]

How did they dilute Nashville's vote exactly so they would now be represented by two Republicans no matter how the people there voted?

They actually split Davidson three ways.   Davidson really doesn't make up more than 40% of any of the three districts its split between and the other areas in those districts are Republican enough they are able to outvote Davidson.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

How did they dilute Nashville's vote exactly so they would now be represented by two Republicans no matter how the people there voted?

They actually split Davidson three ways.   Davidson really doesn't make up more than 40% of any of the three districts its split between and the other areas in those districts are Republican enough they are able to outvote Davidson.

And they could have easily split Davidson four ways, but I assume that DesJarlais balked at taking in any of it and/or someone was spooked about Rutherford County.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing that helps is that in TN, there are basically no Democratic communities outside Memphis and Nasheville, making packing/cracking pretty easy.

[seskoog]

I'm curious if Davidson County will still be split after 2030 when Tennessee gains a tenth district.

[Roll Roons]

I'm curious if Davidson County will still be split after 2030 when Tennessee gains a tenth district.

Depends on how big and blue it is at that point. We could have an Austin situation where the split would be a ticking time bomb for the GOP without a vote sink.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'm curious if Davidson County will still be split after 2030 when Tennessee gains a tenth district.

Depends on how big and blue it is at that point. We could have an Austin situation where the split would be a ticking time bomb for the GOP without a vote sink.

At the moment, drawing a 9-1 map with each one around Trump +20 in 2020 is feasible, but it all depends on how trends go in the 2020s.

[Schiff for Senate]

How did they dilute Nashville's vote exactly so they would now be represented by two Republicans no matter how the people there voted?

They actually split Davidson three ways.   Davidson really doesn't make up more than 40% of any of the three districts its split between and the other areas in those districts are Republican enough they are able to outvote Davidson.

And they could have easily split Davidson four ways, but I assume that DesJarlais balked at taking in any of it and/or someone was spooked about Rutherford County.

DesJarlais should've been successfully primaried a decade ago and the fact that he hasn't is an abomination even by Republican standards. If I were him, I certainly wouldn't be entitled enough to demand an ultra-safe seat. And if I was the TNGOP, I wouldn't be too sorry to throw him under the bus.

[Schiff for Senate]

One thing that helps is that in TN, there are basically no Democratic communities outside Memphis and Nasheville, making packing/cracking pretty easy.

Memphis definitely (the eastern part of Shelby County itself is incredibly conservative; if you removed it, Shelby would be like 70-75% Democratic), but it's not entirely true for Nashville. Murfreesboro and Rutherford County have their Democratic precincts. Additionally, Montgomery County (admittedly, it isn't particularly close to Nashville), home to Clarksville, is one of the least conservative Republican counties, and is only around ~R+10.

[Samof94]

One thing that helps is that in TN, there are basically no Democratic communities outside Memphis and Nasheville, making packing/cracking pretty easy.

Memphis definitely (the eastern part of Shelby County itself is incredibly conservative; if you removed it, Shelby would be like 70-75% Democratic), but it's not entirely true for Nashville. Murfreesboro and Rutherford County have their Democratic precincts. Additionally, Montgomery County (admittedly, it isn't particularly close to Nashville), home to Clarksville, is one of the least conservative Republican counties, and is only around ~R+10.

A lot of Black people in Memphis.

[Pres Mike]

One thing that helps is that in TN, there are basically no Democratic communities outside Memphis and Nasheville, making packing/cracking pretty easy.

Not true

Haywood County is a black rural county. Hardeman County is 40% African American and voted for Obama

Than you have cities like Knoxville, Chattanooga and Jackson that vote Democratic but have large suburbs around their them making Knox, Hamilton and Madison Counties vote Republican

[wnwnwn]

The GOP can't gerrymander Memphis for VRA, so they gerrymandered Nashville.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The GOP can't gerrymander Memphis for VRA, so they gerrymandered Nashville.

Even without the VRA, gerrymandering Memphis would be a much more difficult task.  TN-9 is way bluer than TN-5 would be if it took all of Nashville.  Plus, it's also geographically easier to crack a city in the middle of a state than one in a corner of it.  It's not totally impossible to draw a 9-0 TN map, but it's really ugly looking.

[Nyvin]

The GOP can't gerrymander Memphis for VRA, so they gerrymandered Nashville.

Even without the VRA, gerrymandering Memphis would be a much more difficult task.  TN-9 is way bluer than TN-5 would be if it took all of Nashville.  Plus, it's also geographically easier to crack a city in the middle of a state than one in a corner of it.  It's not totally impossible to draw a 9-0 TN map, but it's really ugly looking.

Doesn't Tennessee also have some weird constitutional provision where each third of the state (West, Middle, East) gets it's own proportion of districts in the State House, Senate, and Congressional?  Currently west gets two, middle gets four, and east gets three.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The GOP can't gerrymander Memphis for VRA, so they gerrymandered Nashville.

Even without the VRA, gerrymandering Memphis would be a much more difficult task.  TN-9 is way bluer than TN-5 would be if it took all of Nashville.  Plus, it's also geographically easier to crack a city in the middle of a state than one in a corner of it.  It's not totally impossible to draw a 9-0 TN map, but it's really ugly looking.

Doesn't Tennessee also have some weird constitutional provision where each third of the state (West, Middle, East) gets it's own proportion of districts in the State House, Senate, and Congressional?  Currently west gets two, middle gets four, and east gets three.

The only place I know of Grand Divisions officially mattering is the State Supreme Court, where each needs to have at least 1, and no more than 2, justices.  Maybe there's some provision for the state legislature too, but I'm not sure.  There definitely isn't for the US House, given that the 2000s TN-7 combined wealthy suburbs of Memphis and Nashville in a Republican vote sink (before rural areas started to heavily trend right).

[Schiff for Senate]

The GOP can't gerrymander Memphis for VRA, so they gerrymandered Nashville.

Also, the Memphis seat as currently drawn is a gigantic Democratic pack/vote-sink. Trying to split it into two Democratic districts might result in both seats flipping blue because of the number of Democratic votes in the area. For instance, in this map, the remaining area set aside for the Nashville-crack districts was Biden+0.5, meaning that at least one of the districts would vote for Biden, and probably that both would be open to Democrats.

[mileslunn]

Memphis I believe gerrymandering could run into court challenges as gerrymandering is allowed but under Civil Rights act you cannot gerrymander a minority-majority area to dilute minority voting power.  Since Nashville is majority white, there is no risk of constitutional challenge in gerrymandering whereas Memphis is majority Black so if gerrymandered courts would likely strike it down.