Ancestry and party identification ca. 2014

[King of Kensington]

The GSS goes up to 2014, I combined 2010-2014 to get a larger sample.  There were more people who identified as Democrats then (48-31!), so ordered by percentage who say they are Democrats:

% Democrats

Portuguese  68*
Greek  52*
French/French Canadian  46
Irish  46
Polish  44
Italian  43
Swedish  38
English  37
German  37
Norwegian  36
Scottish  35
Dutch  29

* Small sample size

[mileslunn]

The GSS goes up to 2014, I combined 2010-2014 to get a larger sample.  There were more people who identified as Democrats then (48-31!), so ordered by percentage who say they are Democrats:

% Democrats

Portuguese  68*
Greek  52*
French/French Canadian  46
Irish  46
Polish  44
Italian  43
Swedish  38
English  37
German  37
Norwegian  36
Scottish  35
Dutch  29

* Small sample size

Sounds about right.  I suspect top three, Polish and Italian are more GOP than were then while English more Democrat.  Swedish and Norwegian interesting as I thought Democrats used to do well with them.  Dutch no surprise at, deeply conservative although I believe Dutch Reformed were like Mormons, voted for Trump but by much smaller margins than usual as many found his lifestyle immoral whereas Evangelicals largely overlooked it.

[King of Kensington]

I remember Obama-era Atlas posts contrasting "German fundie Lutherans" and "Scandinavian progressives" but there doesn't seem to be any meaningful difference between them and there hasn't been for a long time.  Scandinavian Americans are probably one of the most rural demographics, likely more so than German Americans.

[mileslunn]

I remember Obama-era Atlas posts contrasting "German fundie Lutherans" and "Scandinavian progressives" but there doesn't seem to be any meaningful difference between them and there hasn't been for a long time.  Scandinavian Americans are probably one of the most rural demographics, likely more so than German Americans.

True although I believe Minnesota is one of the states with largest numbers and lots live in Twin Cities metro area and Democrats usually narrowly win white vote in Minnesota or at worse barely lose it.  Also lots in Iron Range which while more competitive than past, still votes Democrat.  Washington state has a large Norwegian population and most live west of the Cascades.  Now true Dakotas are very GOP although eastern part where most Scandinavians live was quite competitive for Obama but swung hard towards Trump.  I am pretty sure Trump won both Norwegians and Swedish, but I am guessing Biden did better amongst them than he did with whites as a whole.  Danish are probably only Scandinavian group that voted more GOP than whites as a whole and they tend to live further south too.

[King of Kensington]

Yes 18% of Norwegian Americans live in Minnesota according to the 2020 census.  Minnesota also has the largest Swedish American population of any state, with 11% living there so they're not as dispersed.  Which makes sense as there are several Norwegian-plurality counties (in Minnesota/North Dakota) but no Swedish-plurality counties.

[King of Kensington]

For the Northeast:

% Democratic:

English  58
French/French Canadian  53
German  42
Irish  53
Italian  43
Polish  42

[King of Kensington]

English and German come out even because English is more common in the South.  But in the Northeast English are a lot more liberal because they're more concentrated in New England, while German is concentrated in Pennsylvania and there are few in New England.  Outside the Northeast, there's little difference.

[mileslunn]

English and German come out even because English is more common in the South.  But in the Northeast English are a lot more liberal because they're more concentrated in New England, while German is concentrated in Pennsylvania and there are few in New England.  Outside the Northeast, there's little difference.

I would think in Pacific Northwest, English would be more Liberal as I believe somewhat larger there while German are more rural and more likely to live east of Cascades where GOP does well.  One state where Democrats likely did well with Germans was Colorado as it has a lot of German ancestry and its one of the strongest for Democrats amongst whites outside Pacific Northwest and New England.  In fact I think Biden did as well amongst whites in Colorado as California and better than in New York and Maryland.  Although in case of Colorado that is largely related to education as percentage with college degree is well above national average and big reason why it used to be solidly red, now solidly blue. 

[King of Kensington]

Perhaps, but this minutiae may not show up in national surveys.

[King of Kensington]

Midwest (% D)

English  32
German  36
Irish  51
Italian  48
Polish  38

[King of Kensington]

Interestingly Italian Americans in the Midwest seem to be relatively liberal.  If accurate, I'm guessing it's because there's relatively few of them in the very conservative smaller cities and rural areas.  While in the Northeast, they retain more of a distinctive profile and are not as educated as WASPs and Irish.

[mileslunn]

Interestingly Italian Americans in the Midwest seem to be relatively liberal.  If accurate, I'm guessing it's because there's relatively few of them in the very conservative smaller cities and rural areas.  While in the Northeast, they retain more of a distinctive profile and are not as educated as WASPs and Irish.

Most come from Northeast but don't have any areas like Staten Island they dominate thus why vote same way those living in cities and suburbs do.  Even in Northeast, its more Mid-Atlantic Italians have strong GOP tilt not so much in New England where lean Democrat although less so than Irish.  And even then many might register as Democrat but vote Republican as registration often lags voting patterns.  For example in Staten Island, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans despite fact it votes Republican most of the time.

[King of Kensington]

There was sizeable Italian immigration to Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, the Youngstown area and to some extent the Upper Peninsula.  Most Italians in the Midwest immigrated there directly.  But of course the numbers don't compare to the Northeast.