Democrats weren't expected to win the Senate in 2020 either

[Pres Mike]

But they did anyway

They only won because

-John McCain died in 2018, so AZ had a special election in 2020
-Jonny Isakson retired in 2019, so GA had a special election in 2020

I remember the Democratic Primary debates in 2019. The candidates were asked how they were going to govern with Mitch McConnell most likely going to be the senate majority leader. Never mind pie in the sky ideas like Medicare for All or Green New Deal

Georgia wasn't expected to be a pickup. The only realistic pickups were Maine, Colorado and North Carolina. Of course, Democrats hadn't won a federal race in NC since 2008.

Democrats were expected to lose Alabama

My point? Democrats are in a better position now than 2019/early 2020. They already have a majority and tested popular incumbents in Montana and Ohio.

Hopefully they don't spend half a billion in races like Kentucky or South Carolina again

[Pericles]

Not really. Where would you rather have Senate control decided-states like North Carolina and Georgia (let alone that in 2020 Maine was supposed to be in the mix), or Ohio and Montana? The answer should be pretty obvious.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

You are forgetting how strong the vibes were as of November 2, 2020.

Dems absolutely were expected to win the Senate in 2020, with at least 51 seats in November (as in, not counting seats won in runoffs in GA).

Sara Gideon was supposed to beat Susan Collins
Cal Cunningham was supposed to beat Thom Tillis
Theresa Greenfield was supposed to beat Joni Ernst

Additionally, races in South Carolina, Kansas, and Montana were supposed to be heavily competitive, with both sides seen as having about equal chances of winning.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users don't understand that ME has a runoff like AK and it favs Collins because she can get to 50%, it doesn't favor Palin im AK, she will be fav again in 26 that's why Busse and Jeff Jackson if they lose in 24 should run against Daines and a Tillis

[Pres Mike]

You are forgetting how strong the vibes were as of November 2, 2020.

Dems absolutely were expected to win the Senate in 2020, with at least 51 seats in November (as in, not counting seats won in runoffs in GA).

Sara Gideon was supposed to beat Susan Collins
Cal Cunningham was supposed to beat Thom Tillis
Theresa Greenfield was supposed to beat Joni Ernst

Additionally, races in South Carolina, Kansas, and Montana were supposed to be heavily competitive, with both sides seen as having about equal chances of winning.

RCP, 270, 538 final predictions were Ernst winning in Iowa

And after the sexting scandal, many expected Cunningham to lose

No one with any real political knowledge expected Democrats to win in SC/KS/MT

[Tekken_Guy]

You are forgetting how strong the vibes were as of November 2, 2020.

Dems absolutely were expected to win the Senate in 2020, with at least 51 seats in November (as in, not counting seats won in runoffs in GA).

Sara Gideon was supposed to beat Susan Collins
Cal Cunningham was supposed to beat Thom Tillis
Theresa Greenfield was supposed to beat Joni Ernst

Additionally, races in South Carolina, Kansas, and Montana were supposed to be heavily competitive, with both sides seen as having about equal chances of winning.

RCP, 270, 538 final predictions were Ernst winning in Iowa

And after the sexting scandal, many expected Cunningham to lose

No one with any real political knowledge expected Democrats to win in SC/KS/MT

Even after the sexting scandal the consensus was that Cunningham would win.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What is this historical revisionism? There are threads on atlas that had Montana and Iowa flipping, Maine as a borderline lock, and NC with Cunningham as the heavy favorite. I got mocked on here in July 2020 for merely asking the question that Cornyn could win by double digits. (He won by 9.8% by the way)

[TML]

What is this historical revisionism? There are threads on atlas that had Montana and Iowa flipping, Maine as a borderline lock, and NC with Cunningham as the heavy favorite. I got mocked on here in July 2020 for merely asking the question that Cornyn could win by double digits. (He won by 9.8% by the way)

I'm not sure "historical revisionism" is entirely accurate here - from late 2018 until early 2020 Republicans were considered favored to keep the Senate (although some of us did see potential pathways for Democrats to take control), and it was not until the spring/summer of 2020 that Democrats started to be seen as favored to flip the Senate. Although the final consensus as of Election Day 2020 was that Democrats were favored to flip the Senate, most observers probably didn't expect that kind of consensus earlier in the year.

[Pres Mike]

What is this historical revisionism? There are threads on atlas that had Montana and Iowa flipping, Maine as a borderline lock, and NC with Cunningham as the heavy favorite. I got mocked on here in July 2020 for merely asking the question that Cornyn could win by double digits. (He won by 9.8% by the way)

I'm not sure "historical revisionism" is entirely accurate here - from late 2018 until early 2020 Republicans were considered favored to keep the Senate (although some of us did see potential pathways for Democrats to take control), and it was not until the spring/summer of 2020 that Democrats started to be seen as favored to flip the Senate. Although the final consensus as of Election Day 2020 was that Democrats were favored to flip the Senate, most observers probably didn't expect that kind of consensus earlier in the year.

Exactly. I explicity remember a question in one of the 2019 primary debates "How would you get anything past Senate Majority Leader McConnell"

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Georgia clutched up in 2020, a perfect storm for Dems there on every level.

The big problem with 2024 is WV is a done deal, and I can't see Tester winning in the hyperpolarized environment, even with Rosendale as the nominee.

So the only feasible path would be hope that there is a super blue national environment (D+7 or so) which is enough to drag Brown over the line, and then pray that either Tester or whoever they nominate in Texas is somehow able to pull it off.

So yeah, it's a tall order, especially considering the polling we have.

[ProgressiveModerate]

While I agree with those who argue that by election day, many saw the 2020 Senate as a tossup or better for Dems, at this point in the 2020 cycle most had Rs favored from what I recall.

I think overall though, the 2024 Senate map is more brutal. 2020 Senate map always had a good number of pickup opportunities in swingy states which 2024 Senate just doesn't have. In 2020, Democrats could've won the Senate just off of Biden states whereas in 2024, Democrats will likely need seats in Trump 2024 states.