Transgender vote

[mileslunn]

They are only 0.3% of population but be curious if anyone has any idea how they vote.  I know LGBT is around a 75/25 split amongst LGBTQ but transgender are a small portion of LGBTQ community.  I am guessing Democrats probably closer to 90% as I think gay rights becoming more widely accepted even amongst Republicans but transphobia still much more prevalent. 

[patzer]

At a guess I'd say the Republicans would struggle to get 5%

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

One party wants them dead

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Trump is more moderate on the trans issue so its likely he would do better with these voters than the generic Rs are.

[mileslunn]

Trump is more moderate on the trans issue so its likely he would do better with these voters than the generic Rs are.

Still would do really bad but agree he is more moderate than DeSantis for example is.

[Sol]

This data is not particularly accessible, but hyper-Democratic of course (probably 85+), with most non-Democrats voting for left-wing third parties.

Trump is more moderate on the trans issue so its likely he would do better with these voters than the generic Rs are.

It's hard to overstate how extremely terrified trans people are about politics right now; none of them are voting for Trump unless they are extremely delusional.

There might have been a non-negligible Republican vote from 2015-2020 or so (like 5% maybe) but I think all of those people are voting for Biden this year. A conservative party with softened attitudes on LGBT issues could maybe get something like 10% in a vacuum, but that's not the world we live in -- we're living in a world where a Trump administration plausibly could ban hormones, and where Republican-run states are bringing back crossdressing bans and reverting gender marker changes.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trans Republicans do apparently exist (there's one on this very site) but they are probably the smallest political minority imaginable.

[Continential]

How do they vote in other countries? That would be an interesting question.

[mileslunn]

How do they vote in other countries? That would be an interesting question.

Probably mostly to left although in Europe I bet a lot stay home or vote for more ideological left wing parties as even center-left parties not very trans friendly.  I do know of one here in Canada who is a UCP and Conservative supporter but she also works in oil and gas industry and owns an AR15 so kind of makes sense.  But not sure how many fit that profile.  Also Calgary is sort of a unique city and very much a live let live type place where no one really cares what identity you belong to, people just like low taxes and smaller government.  Alaska and Montana are sort of like that as they do have a strong libertarian streak of fine with people smoking marijuana, gays getting married, but want to keep their guns and hate paying taxes.  I do think though right pretty much everywhere hates the more activist types but split between social conservatives who dislike all and more libertarian types who are fine with trans, just hate the activist ones that are in your face about it.

[Dan the Roman]

The problem with the LGBT+ signifier if that it has fragmented so much as to make the definition useful.

Even if you look at the Transgender category you probably have some subgroups such as Transmedicalists who until recently might have been as Republican or arguably substantially more Republican than gay males, and then anyone who is "gender is a spectrum" where support for Republicans was likely 1-2% even before recent events.

All recent stuff has done is ensured the Conservative elements within the transgender community won't vote R, but that % is a distinctly tiny subset.

Conservatism is inherently unfriendly to relativism. This is not a religious influence per se, but it is generally why religious people are otherwise attracted to the Right. The thing is secular conservatives are intrinsically going to be hostile to anyone who wants to destroy social order itself(which is why it's wrong to see religion as the origins of hostility to homosexuality. Conservatives had to be persuaded SsM and homosexuality could be integrated into the social order) and therefore the entire existance of non-binary individuals is antithetical to the values which attract anyone, no matter how secular, to the Right.

So the only version Transgender identity that can be integrated into the Right is pretty much the transmedicalist one which accepts that men and women exist, are biologically distinct, and that laws/society should reflect that. I think conservatives can at that point accept that people who have fully medically transitioned can count as the gender they have transitioned into, but for the right

Transition /=/ identify as

At the same time that is half the problem. Fiscal conservatives are going to have a clash with the Transgender community in a way which they don't with gays and lesbians and that is the question of who should pay for transition. We are not talking school lunches but up to $100,000, and I don't expect fiscal conservatives to ever be happy with taxpayers footing the bill for any transition care for a long time.

In short, there are reasons why the relationship dosent work even absent DeSantis types. And even the most moderate Republicans going forward, those who will veto treatment bans and bathroom bills, are still going to uniformly oppose any form of self-id(absent transition) or efforts to get governmental support for transition.

[Sol]

The "new trans" type (people who transition not due to gender dysphoria but because they want to partake in tearing down gender norms) as well as anyone who identifies as non-binary or anything other than a man or a woman, may actually vote for Trump at a higher rate than Biden (although most will vote for far-left third party or not at all). This is because these people are so extremely far-left that they hate liberals with a passion, want Israel to be destroyed (and think Biden is responsible for genocide), and may prefer Trump because they are accelerationists who ultimately want to see a revolution resulting in the downfall of the Constitution, the West, and the neocolonial existence of the United States itself. A lot won't vote though because they view voting as useless and as taking part in colonialist white supremacy.

Trans folks who transition out of genuine gender dysphoria, especially those who transitioned before this explosion in trans identification among youth which is definitely a bit of a social contagion, will vote safely D because they understand Republicans want them dead.

Trans women who transitioned due to autogynephilia like Caitlyn Jenner or others that now identify as trans lesbians and were/are married to women are much more likely to be Republican / fiscally conservative, however.

jesus christ wtf is this

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

The "new trans" type (people who transition not due to gender dysphoria but because they want to partake in tearing down gender norms) as well as anyone who identifies as non-binary or anything other than a man or a woman, may actually vote for Trump at a higher rate than Biden (although most will vote for far-left third party or not at all). This is because these people are so extremely far-left that they hate liberals with a passion, want Israel to be destroyed (and think Biden is responsible for genocide), and may prefer Trump because they are accelerationists who ultimately want to see a revolution resulting in the downfall of the Constitution, the West, and the neocolonial existence of the United States itself. A lot won't vote though because they view voting as useless and as taking part in colonialist white supremacy.

Trans folks who transition out of genuine gender dysphoria, especially those who transitioned before this explosion in trans identification among youth which is definitely a bit of a social contagion, will vote safely D because they understand Republicans want them dead.

Trans women who transitioned due to autogynephilia like Caitlyn Jenner or others that now identify as trans lesbians and were/are married to women are much more likely to be Republican / fiscally conservative, however.

jesus christ wtf is this

A rational centrist take.

[It’s so Joever]

The "new trans" type (people who transition not due to gender dysphoria but because they want to partake in tearing down gender norms) as well as anyone who identifies as non-binary or anything other than a man or a woman, may actually vote for Trump at a higher rate than Biden (although most will vote for far-left third party or not at all). This is because these people are so extremely far-left that they hate liberals with a passion, want Israel to be destroyed (and think Biden is responsible for genocide), and may prefer Trump because they are accelerationists who ultimately want to see a revolution resulting in the downfall of the Constitution, the West, and the neocolonial existence of the United States itself. A lot won't vote though because they view voting as useless and as taking part in colonialist white supremacy.

Trans folks who transition out of genuine gender dysphoria, especially those who transitioned before this explosion in trans identification among youth which is definitely a bit of a social contagion, will vote safely D because they understand Republicans want them dead.

Trans women who transitioned due to autogynephilia like Caitlyn Jenner or others that now identify as trans lesbians and were/are married to women are much more likely to be Republican / fiscally conservative, however.

You know it is good parody when you can’t tell if it is parody or not.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The "new trans" type (people who transition not due to gender dysphoria but because they want to partake in tearing down gender norms) as well as anyone who identifies as non-binary or anything other than a man or a woman, may actually vote for Trump at a higher rate than Biden (although most will vote for far-left third party or not at all). This is because these people are so extremely far-left that they hate liberals with a passion, want Israel to be destroyed (and think Biden is responsible for genocide), and may prefer Trump because they are accelerationists who ultimately want to see a revolution resulting in the downfall of the Constitution, the West, and the neocolonial existence of the United States itself. A lot won't vote though because they view voting as useless and as taking part in colonialist white supremacy.

Trans folks who transition out of genuine gender dysphoria, especially those who transitioned before this explosion in trans identification among youth which is definitely a bit of a social contagion, will vote safely D because they understand Republicans want them dead.

Trans women who transitioned due to autogynephilia like Caitlyn Jenner or others that now identify as trans lesbians and were/are married to women are much more likely to be Republican / fiscally conservative, however.

jesus christ wtf is this

A rational centrist take.

> “centrist take” on human rights/identities

wat

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

If it's a legitimate trans, the body has ways of voting Democrat. These are not present in trenders or AGPs.

jesus christ wtf is this

This is your brain on cisgenderism.

[It’s so Joever]

If it's a legitimate trans, the body has ways of voting Democrat. These are not present in trenders or AGPs.

jesus christ wtf is this

This is your brain on cisgenderism.

Are you in denial about the fact that you have a chip in your brain that shocks you everytime you don’t vote Democrat?

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Are you in denial about the fact that you have a chip in your brain that shocks you everytime you don’t vote Democrat?

Yes, if only because I've never gotten shocked by it before.

[RINO Tom]

0.3% of the population is less than a million people ... that is akin to trying to figure out how Wake Forest football fans vote.  In other words, you will rely on your assumptions, and good luck finding a sample size.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

A more interesting question would be whether they turnout more or less than other demographics. I can see arguments both ways regarding this.

[It’s so Joever]

A more interesting question would be whether they turnout more or less than other demographics. I can see arguments both ways regarding this.

That’s an interesting one. On one hand those who identify as trans likely (although I’m not certain) are somewhat higher info and more educated, but they are also disproportionately younger. Because of the latter I’d lean towards slightly less but I have no data this is just speculation.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

A more interesting question would be whether they turnout more or less than other demographics. I can see arguments both ways regarding this.

That’s an interesting one. On one hand those who identify as trans likely (although I’m not certain) are somewhat higher info and more educated, but they are also disproportionately younger. Because of the latter I’d lean towards slightly less but I have no data this is just speculation.

Anecdotally most of the politically involved/inclined trans individuals I know are very left wing, Socialist, Communists, DSA organizers etc. I can imagine they only turnout when a candidate they support is running

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://www.kff.org/report-section/kff-the-washington-post-trans-survey-trans-in-america/

From the demographic factors we have associated factors of a low-turnout demographic given that trans Americans have low-incomes, low college attainment(surprised the hell out of me) and tend to live in uncompetitive areas. The survey also included explicit questions about politics suggesting a strong democratic lean.

Consistent with these findings, about half of trans adults (48%) use they/them pronouns, and about one-third say they use a combination of they/them, she/her or he/him pronouns. Seven in ten trans adults identify as lesbian, gay, queer, or bisexual. This survey finds trans adults and cisgender adults report similar household incomes, even when controlling for age, with four in ten trans adults reporting annual incomes of less than $40,000 (compared to 37% of cisgender adults). However, trans adults are much less likely than cisgender adults to have a college degree, even when accounting for the younger age of this population. About 15% of trans adults report having at least a college degree compared to 35% of cisgender adults. This includes 12% of trans adults under the age of 35 and one in five (19%) of trans adults over age 35 (compared to 31% of cis adults under 35 and 37% over age 35). Few trans adults say they are Republicans (10%) or Republican-leaning independents (4%), with most trans adults identifying as Democrats (42%) or Democratic-leaning independents (26%). Regarding political ideology, six in ten (58%) identify as political liberals, while three in ten (28%) say they are political moderates, and one in seven are conservatives (13%).

[GAinDC]

Trump is more moderate on the trans issue so its likely he would do better with these voters than the generic Rs are.

Moderate within the Republican spectrum is still extreme when it comes to LGBTQ equality

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Trump is more moderate on the trans issue so its likely he would do better with these voters than the generic Rs are.

Moderate within the Republican spectrum is still extreme when it comes to LGBTQ equality

“Trump is parading the streets with the head of trans people on a spike,,,, he’s so moderate why won’t the gays vote for him ”

[RINO Tom]

Trump is more moderate on the trans issue so its likely he would do better with these voters than the generic Rs are.

Moderate within the Republican spectrum is still extreme when it comes to LGBTQ equality

Extreme compared to the average American?  Or are you defining extremism in reference to your own personal views?