Why did NV swing back to a swing state after Obama but not NM?

[David Hume]

NV and NM were relatively close in Bush years, although NM slightly to the left. In 2008 and 2012, Dems won both comfortably. Afterwards NV went back to a swing state, but NM was solid on D with about 10 points. Both states have large Latino population. NM is more rural and poorer, which at face value should benefit R. Yet the result is the opposite. Why?

At state level, in NM R never had trifecta after 1930, while D had trifacta almost half the time, even though R did more better at Federal races before the Clinton years. In NV R and D were about even at state level.

[mileslunn]

New Mexico has much larger Hispanic and the Hispanos are more reliably Democrat than Mexicans who vote Democrat but more variable.  But biggest reason is education as New Mexico has higher percentage with college degree than Nevada does.  Its a big reason why Colorado is now voting more Democrat than New Mexico which was not the case under either Bush or Obama.

[wnwnwn]

NM has more hispanics and more natives. Also, it has been historically it has been one of the poorest states. Maybe for the last reason, old stock hispanics in NM haven't trended republican as the ones in Colorado and Texas have.

[It’s so Joever]

NM has more hispanics and more natives. Also, it has been historically it has been one of the poorest states. Maybe for the last reason, old stock hispanics in NM haven't trended republican as the ones in Colorado and Texas have.

People don’t understand just how strong the Native influence is in North New Mexico and among the Neomexicano population. I’ve already explained the historic reasons for this so I’m not gonna put in the effort here but anytime I see a comparison between Neomexicanos and other Hispanic groups in the US without mentioning this critical detail, I honestly just don’t take the rest of the post seriously.

To best highlight this, self identifying Mexican-Americans in New Mexico broke for Biden with 54%. Self-identified Spanish Americans (what Neonexicanos usually identify as) broke for Biden by 70%.

[ottermax]

Migration also plays a significant role. NV has a much larger transient population and a workforce employed in fields that are working class but generally somewhat opportunity generating. Also with the tax laws of NV next to California it attracts a certain type of economic migrant who leans right.

NM has far less migration, and it is centered in Albuquerque which is a bit of an oddity in the state with a more college-educated "tech" like economy.

Finally I think it is worth mentioning that Santa Fe has some similarities to the Tahoe area, but is far more liberal with a particularly high-participation type of resident whereas Northern Nevada has a pretty mixed politics.

Also, Trump is just a very strong fit for Nevada. New Mexico is a bit more mixed with some areas that have Trump appeal and other areas that behave more like Colorado and despise him.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

NM has more hispanics and more natives. Also, it has been historically it has been one of the poorest states. Maybe for the last reason, old stock hispanics in NM haven't trended republican as the ones in Colorado and Texas have.

People don’t understand just how strong the Native influence is in North New Mexico and among the Neomexicano population. I’ve already explained the historic reasons for this so I’m not gonna put in the effort here but anytime I see a comparison between Neomexicanos and other Hispanic groups in the US without mentioning this critical detail, I honestly just don’t take the rest of the post seriously.

To best highlight this, self identifying Mexican-Americans in New Mexico broke for Biden with 54%. Self-identified Spanish Americans (what Neonexicanos usually identify as) broke for Biden by 70%.

Found the post

There is also a much stronger Native American influence on Nuevomexicanos due to interactions with the sedentary Pueblo people who lived in the area and still do today.

[GregTheGreat657]

Before Obama, Nevada was a red state, while NM was already purple. After Obama, Nevada became a swing state, while NM became a blue state.

[Pres Mike]

Before Obama, Nevada was a red state, while NM was already purple. After Obama, Nevada became a swing state, while NM became a blue state.

Nevada was a swing state in 2000 and 2004, it was heavily contested by Kerry. Clinton won it twice

[mileslunn]

Before Obama, Nevada was a red state, while NM was already purple. After Obama, Nevada became a swing state, while NM became a blue state.

Nevada was a swing state in 2000 and 2004, it was heavily contested by Kerry. Clinton won it twice

Both were swing states since gaining statehood.  Nevada has only voted for losing candidate twice (Ford 76 and Clinton 16) while New Mexico 3x (Ford 76, Gore 00, and Clinton 16).  In fact since gaining statehood New Mexico has voted for popular vote winner in all but one election.  1976 was a lot different than today as strong East vs. West divide as GOP really dominated West then whereas nowadays only does in more rural and religious Western states, not so much in more urban.  At same time Carter was last Democrat to dominate South.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Before Obama, Nevada was a red state, while NM was already purple. After Obama, Nevada became a swing state, while NM became a blue state.

Nevada was a swing state in 2000 and 2004, it was heavily contested by Kerry. Clinton won it twice

Both were swing states since gaining statehood.  Nevada has only voted for losing candidate twice (Ford 76 and Clinton 16) while New Mexico 3x (Ford 76, Gore 00, and Clinton 16).  In fact since gaining statehood New Mexico has voted for popular vote winner in all but one election.  1976 was a lot different than today as strong East vs. West divide as GOP really dominated West then whereas nowadays only does in more rural and religious Western states, not so much in more urban.  At same time Carter was last Democrat to dominate South.

I’m surprised Ford won NM after the tamale incident

[mileslunn]

Before Obama, Nevada was a red state, while NM was already purple. After Obama, Nevada became a swing state, while NM became a blue state.

Nevada was a swing state in 2000 and 2004, it was heavily contested by Kerry. Clinton won it twice

Both were swing states since gaining statehood.  Nevada has only voted for losing candidate twice (Ford 76 and Clinton 16) while New Mexico 3x (Ford 76, Gore 00, and Clinton 16).  In fact since gaining statehood New Mexico has voted for popular vote winner in all but one election.  1976 was a lot different than today as strong East vs. West divide as GOP really dominated West then whereas nowadays only does in more rural and religious Western states, not so much in more urban.  At same time Carter was last Democrat to dominate South.

I’m surprised Ford won NM after the tamale incident

He won every Western state except Hawaii.  Texas was the most westerly mainland US state to vote for Carter

[Oryxslayer]

It was noted at the time that Nevada in 2008 was especially poised to swing against the incumbent GOP. This was cause Las Vegas was one of the Housing Crisis hotspots, and the Vegas metro decides Nevada elections. There is a argument then that even with the 2008 landslide, Obama was outperforming expected outcome.

[TDAS04]

Bill Clinton's wins in Nevada were actually quite narrow both times, with margins considerably narrower than his NPV margins. From 1964 through 2004, the state voted to the right of the nation every time. But yeah, by 2004, Nevada had clearly become a swing state (W may not have been the best fit for the state).

[mileslunn]

It was noted at the time that Nevada in 2008 was especially poised to swing against the incumbent GOP. This was cause Las Vegas was one of the Housing Crisis hotspots, and the Vegas metro decides Nevada elections. There is a argument then that even with the 2008 landslide, Obama was outperforming expected outcome.

While not as important, 2008 was when Washoe County flipped as GOP win it every election from 1968-2004 but since 2008 has gone Democrat every time.  Reno being a smaller city likely reflects trend of those becoming somewhat more Democrat throughout country.  Obama in 2008 also won Carson City, but has voted GOP in last three elections.  I believe Washoe County has more college educated whites than Clark County so maybe partly why it flipped while Clark County only goes Democrat due to large non-white population and even then GOP does quite well considering its size and non-white population despite falling short.

[Roll Roons]

It was noted at the time that Nevada in 2008 was especially poised to swing against the incumbent GOP. This was cause Las Vegas was one of the Housing Crisis hotspots, and the Vegas metro decides Nevada elections. There is a argument then that even with the 2008 landslide, Obama was outperforming expected outcome.

While not as important, 2008 was when Washoe County flipped as GOP win it every election from 1968-2004 but since 2008 has gone Democrat every time.  Reno being a smaller city likely reflects trend of those becoming somewhat more Democrat throughout country.  Obama in 2008 also won Carson City, but has voted GOP in last three elections.  I believe Washoe County has more college educated whites than Clark County so maybe partly why it flipped while Clark County only goes Democrat due to large non-white population and even then GOP does quite well considering its size and non-white population despite falling short.

Yeah, Washoe is 32% college educated and Clark is 26%. Apparently the former is attracting a not-insignificant number of remote working tech types.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

It was noted at the time that Nevada in 2008 was especially poised to swing against the incumbent GOP. This was cause Las Vegas was one of the Housing Crisis hotspots, and the Vegas metro decides Nevada elections. There is a argument then that even with the 2008 landslide, Obama was outperforming expected outcome.

And the flip side of that (though I’d probably could apply to the rest of the state, just less so) is the COVID closures of 2020. I’d imagine those helped the GOP in 2020 and 2022. Remains to be seen how NV votes this year, of course.