Geography of Blacks who vote GOP
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  Geography of Blacks who vote GOP
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Author Topic: Geography of Blacks who vote GOP  (Read 201 times)
mileslunn
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« on: February 01, 2024, 05:56:28 PM »

With Whites, Hispanics, Asians, and even Native Americans we can see where GOP does best amongst them and worst.

For whites - GOP strongest in Deep South while Democrats strongest in New England and Pacific Northwest

For Hispanics - Florida is best for GOP, while Northeast and California and perhaps Pacific Northwest where Democrats strongest.

For Asians - While less obvious at county and municipal level differences, i.e. GOP does much better amongst Asians in Orange County than San Francisco Bay Area.

Native Americans - GOP does best in Oklahoma and Alaska although Democrats still win while Democrats strongest in Mountain West and Plain states.

But for Blacks geography seems less clear.  Obviously Democrats get over 80% amongst Blacks everywhere in US but do wonder if certain areas GOP does better.  I have often thought West was where GOP does best with Blacks but still unclear.  Exit poll showed Trump getting 19% of Black vote in Nevada, but that could have been simple margin of error in normal polling so not sure if accurate.  I do know on precinct level, over 80% Black precincts tend to have Democrats over 95% so I assuming Blacks living in predominately white areas more likely to vote GOP (less social pressure to vote Democrat and more friends and colleagues who do) but not sure if anyway to confirm this.
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« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2024, 06:14:10 PM »

It’s hard to tell; blacks in 90%+ black precincts all vote nearly the same; there is some evidence to suggest blacks who live in heavily non-black neighborhoods may be more GOP favorable but it’s harder to analyze with election results to verify this to be the case and to what extent.

One place to start may be trying to analyze Afro-Hispanic communities in places like Miami and the Bronx which seem less D-favorable than normal just black communities.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2024, 07:15:48 PM »

It’s hard to tell; blacks in 90%+ black precincts all vote nearly the same; there is some evidence to suggest blacks who live in heavily non-black neighborhoods may be more GOP favorable but it’s harder to analyze with election results to verify this to be the case and to what extent.

One place to start may be trying to analyze Afro-Hispanic communities in places like Miami and the Bronx which seem less D-favorable than normal just black communities.

That was my thinking as in 90%+ Black precincts, almost all show Democrats doing better than exit polls so my thinking is those living in more white areas would be more likely to vote GOP.  In 90%+ Black precincts, usually GOP gets in low single digits, generally less than 3% and obviously look at total votes is very unlikely they did that badly with Blacks overall so that would suggest do better in more white areas.  And has some logic as I believe in Black community there is a lot of social pressure to vote Democrat.

Bronx and same with south central Los Angeles, Inglewood, and Compton still go massively Democrat and I suspect GOP getting in low teens is due to probably 20-25% support amongst Hispanics while single digits amongst Blacks.  In Miami-Dade and Broward County, most heavily Black precincts show Democrats in high 80s but not sure there are any 90%+ ones.  Most of those are only 80% Black so GOP support being around 10% is probably mostly from the white and Hispanic community. 

Suburbs though do kind of suggest better GOP support as in Philadelphia, Detroit, New York City, Chicago area I have noticed that comparing white vote in heavily white precincts so ones where 10-20% Black and assuming Blacks vote over 90% Democrat doesn't add up unless turnout much lower for Blacks or Whites vote more heavily GOP in those than whiter ones, it must mean do better with Blacks.  So while not sure I do have a hunch that in suburbs GOP probably gets into double digits although still massively Democrat, but just a hunch no hard proof.

I know back in 2004, Washington state and Oklahoma were Bush's best states for Black vote and he got 25% and 28% respectively according to exit polls.  In former probably margin of error although because Black community is more recent in most of the West outside California, perhaps less racial polarization.  Since 2008 exit polls haven't given Black vote in Washington state as too small a sample.  Oklahoma was probably a carry over from when JC Watts was representative and maybe due to social issues as Oklahoma is very socially conservative so Bush's pro-life and opposition to gay marriage probably helped him there.  For 2020, Nevada stood out as was 19% but of Western states only California was other one that surveyed Blacks (I Presume in other states, too small a sample to to be accurate) and there Biden got over 90% but then again Blacks in California more akin to ones Midwest and Northeast as came during Great migration and many faced discrimination and settled heavily in certain neighborhoods unlike rest of West where most have come post civil rights and don't tend to congregate heavily in any one particular place. 

In states with few like Montana, Dakotas, northern New England almost impossible to find out.  On one hand due to few Blacks, most probably are socially and culturally largely part of white community as most friends would be white so that might have an impact.  But then again numbers so small impossible to tell by precincts or polling.
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2024, 07:32:52 PM »

I presume that the answer is that they live in swingy to light red, majority white suburban areas.  Many probably feel like there is little difference between them and their white neighbors.  But, something like that is impossible to poll or prove via precinct results.
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