Early Cracks in Bush's Re-Election Armor

[HoopsCubs]

It's still February.  There is lots of time left for President Bush to right the ship.  

But Republican supporters cannot at all be pleased with the cracks in Bush's armor right now.   What seemed like a potential landslide victory in the making for Bush now seems like a real dog fight to the end a la 2000.

Several factors are making life uneasy for the President (in no special order):      

(1) Independent voters in states like Ohio, Neew Hampshire, West Virginia, Arizona and Pennsylvania actively questioning everyday why we went to war in Iraq in the first place?

(2) David Kay's testimony to the Senate and meeting with the President that there are no visible weapons of mass destruction, and that the intelligency was very faulty.

(3) Fiscally conservative Republicans appalled at the budget deficit and Bush's immigration plan.

(4) Those same Republicans and many voters upset with the President's initial error in estimating cost of health care reform (off by one-third) from the time it was passed in Congress vs. the time when the President sent his budget to Congress.

(5) Halliburton always in the news.

(6) No answer for the ~3M American jobs lost since the administration took over in 2001.  No idea on how to stop the losses from mounting.

(7) Dean's descent, and Kerry's ascent, and now the possibility that Hillary Clinton might be a viable VP candidate.

( Early polls showing Kerry leading the President.

(9) Kerry's ability to use his military career to ignite independent veterans.

(10) The perception that the economy is not much better since the administration cam einto power.


Let's face it folks.  John Kerry has lots and lots of flaws too.    Other than some voters in Florida, most people south of Mason-Dixon, and in the West find him very unappealing.  He has many things he needs to answer for to even core Democrats like myslef.   He would still be the under-dog against President Bush despite what early Gallup polls may say.   But, there are enough issues that are plaguing the President now that make the prospects of a landslide almost impossible.  And there are enough electoral vote scenarios floating around in Karl Rove's inner circles that are giving him some headaches.  

This is going to be a great and fascinating race!

HoopsCubs

[Gustaf]

I am not sure whether the prospect of  Hillary Clinton VP spot would really mean trouble for Bush, but otherwise I think this is a good analysis. I agree that the race will probably be interesting and that, depending on the definition, we most likely will not have a lanslide, but a fairly close election, at least in the PV. Some polls seem to indicate that Bush is losing some support in the south, but gaining in the crucial Mid-West states, and that could seal the election.

[12th Doctor]

It's still February.  There is lots of time left for President Bush to right the ship.  

But Republican supporters cannot at all be pleased with the cracks in Bush's armor right now.   What seemed like a potential landslide victory in the making for Bush now seems like a real dog fight to the end a la 2000.

Several factors are making life uneasy for the President (in no special order):      

(1) Independent voters in states like Ohio, Neew Hampshire, West Virginia, Arizona and Pennsylvania actively questioning everyday why we went to war in Iraq in the first place?

(2) David Kay's testimony to the Senate and meeting with the President that there are no visible weapons of mass destruction, and that the intelligency was very faulty.

(3) Fiscally conservative Republicans appalled at the budget deficit and Bush's immigration plan.

(4) Those same Republicans and many voters upset with the President's initial error in estimating cost of health care reform (off by one-third) from the time it was passed in Congress vs. the time when the President sent his budget to Congress.

(5) Halliburton always in the news.

(6) No answer for the ~3M American jobs lost since the administration took over in 2001.  No idea on how to stop the losses from mounting.

(7) Dean's descent, and Kerry's ascent, and now the possibility that Hillary Clinton might be a viable VP candidate.

( Early polls showing Kerry leading the President.

(9) Kerry's ability to use his military career to ignite independent veterans.

(10) The perception that the economy is not much better since the administration cam einto power.


Let's face it folks.  John Kerry has lots and lots of flaws too.    Other than some voters in Florida, most people south of Mason-Dixon, and in the West find him very unappealing.  He has many things he needs to answer for to even core Democrats like myslef.   He would still be the under-dog against President Bush despite what early Gallup polls may say.   But, there are enough issues that are plaguing the President now that make the prospects of a landslide almost impossible.  And there are enough electoral vote scenarios floating around in Karl Rove's inner circles that are giving him some headaches.  

This is going to be a great and fascinating race!

HoopsCubs

In reasponse to everything you said:

1)  The Republicans have out registered the Dems in all the battle ground states except New Hampshire.  Independant voters will get their answers on Bush and Iraq.  They will also be turned-off when they acctually get a good look at Kerry.

2)David Kay did NOT rule-out the possibility of WMD in Iraq.  He simply said that it clearly didn't exist in the numbers that we thought.  So what, every other nation in the world thought that he was stock piling the stuff too.  Also, did you hear Kay say that Iraq was MORE dangerous than we thought because terrorist elements were using it as a base of opperations?

3)Republicans aren't going to let Kerry win.  I think that that would be counter productive.

4)Refer to answer 3

5)Halliburton was cleared of any wrong doing in that one particular case, because the country they were exporting to (I think it was the UAE) artificially rose the price on the oil.  Also, if Cheney is gone, this won't be a problem.

6)The economic slow down that resulted in job lose started in the CLINTON ADMINISTRATION!  Also, predictions on jobs at this time next year show the unemployment rate at around 5%.

7)Why would this make anyone want to vote for the Democrats.  Not everyone is a leftist wacko nutjob.

8 )Early polls showed Mondale over Reagan.  Kerry has had more media exposer than Bush has.  BIG SUPRISE!!!!

9)Many Vietnam veterans are appaled by how Kerry acted when he came back from the war.  He basically called them all cold-blooded murderers and turned the whole country against them.  Veterans organization are already forming to stop Kerry.

10)The economy is growing fast.  I don't know what you are talking about.

[Gustaf]

Supersoulty, you're looking at this from a very partisan perspective, and of course you see no reasons to vote for Kerry. But other people will, Bush doesn't have en exclusive right to media spin, so the Dems will be able to claim that Kerry is a war vet, that the economy has been going down since 2000, ans so on.

[12th Doctor]

Supersoulty, you're looking at this from a very partisan perspective, and of course you see no reasons to vote for Kerry. But other people will, Bush doesn't have en exclusive right to media spin, so the Dems will be able to claim that Kerry is a war vet, that the economy has been going down since 2000, ans so on.

They are claiming that everyday.  If people believed them on mass, Bush's poll numbers would be way lower than they are.  Kerry prides himself on being MORE liberal than Ted Kennedy.  That won't sell well to a vast majority of voters.

[HoopsCubs]

Supersoulty,

Your obvious dislike for Hillary Clinton notwithstanding, there are a large number of independent female voters and minority groups who could be electrified to come to the polls and vote for Kerry by she being his running mate.  

I guess we'll find out in November if my reasons pan out, or yours do.  I am merely pointing out that there are a lot of things that could prevent Bush from winning.  

HoopsCubs

   

[Gustaf]

Supersoulty, you're looking at this from a very partisan perspective, and of course you see no reasons to vote for Kerry. But other people will, Bush doesn't have en exclusive right to media spin, so the Dems will be able to claim that Kerry is a war vet, that the economy has been going down since 2000, ans so on.

They are claiming that everyday.  If people believed them on mass, Bush's poll numbers would be way lower than they are.  Kerry prides himself on being MORE liberal than Ted Kennedy.  That won't sell well to a vast majority of voters.

Other things have been helping Bush, and I think you really know that. Just like we all know that Kerry won't run as a "proud liberal", b/c he isn't a complete idiot.

[12th Doctor]

Supersoulty, you're looking at this from a very partisan perspective, and of course you see no reasons to vote for Kerry. But other people will, Bush doesn't have en exclusive right to media spin, so the Dems will be able to claim that Kerry is a war vet, that the economy has been going down since 2000, ans so on.

They are claiming that everyday.  If people believed them on mass, Bush's poll numbers would be way lower than they are.  Kerry prides himself on being MORE liberal than Ted Kennedy.  That won't sell well to a vast majority of voters.

Other things have been helping Bush, and I think you really know that. Just like we all know that Kerry won't run as a "proud liberal", b/c he isn't a complete idiot.

He won't, your right.  It will be hard for him to shake that image after he has gone all out to present that image in the primary.  It will be hard for him to run away from his voting record as well.  Remember, Bush hasn'r even started campaigning.  When he does the full force of a $150+ million budget is going to come down on Kerry.

[12th Doctor]

Also, according to reports, the Bush team already has an election strategy for the presidency, House, Senate and governorships.

[Gustaf]

Also, according to reports, the Bush team already has an election strategy for the presidency, House, Senate and governorships.

Well, they should...I agree that Bush's campaign will make some difference, but it's hard to tell how much.

[mossy]

I think SuperSoulty's item #1 is the most interesting.

I've always envied the GOP to get out their vote, and with Rove as strategist, he would surely hit those swing states the hardest.


We know this is going to be the Mother Of All Campaigns, but it could be a raging battle of negative campaigning, i.e. how many black children one's opponent sired, break-ins, media blackouts..... of the like we've never seen before......

[opebo]

It seems to me the only thing that has happened in the last few weeks that voters would care about is the continuing lack of statistical reporting of job creation.  Iraq seems no better or worse than in the past, and I don't think people really care one way or theother about Mars and all that other nonsense BUsh has been up to.  The immigration policy is a total loser however.

Still I think the only thing that will determine the outcome of this election is the number of jobs that are created in the next 9 months or so.  It will need to be quite high for Bush to remain.  The average 'swing' voter apparently has no understanding of or interest in GDP growth, only jobs.

[Wakie]

Still I think the only thing that will determine the outcome of this election is the number of jobs that are created in the next 9 months or so.  It will need to be quite high for Bush to remain.  The average 'swing' voter apparently has no understanding of or interest in GDP growth, only jobs.

I think the average voter just says "am I better off than I was 4 years ago".  If the answer is yes they vote for the incumbant party.  If no, they go with the opposition.

[opebo]

Still I think the only thing that will determine the outcome of this election is the number of jobs that are created in the next 9 months or so.  It will need to be quite high for Bush to remain.  The average 'swing' voter apparently has no understanding of or interest in GDP growth, only jobs.

I think the average voter just says "am I better off than I was 4 years ago".  If the answer is yes they vote for the incumbant party.  If no, they go with the opposition.

Well, the great majority of people are in fact better off than they were four years ago.  The difference is a couple or three million more are unemployed, and more importantly this makes the rest anxious.  In material terms 95%+ of voters are actually better off, but it is all about perceptions.

[Wakie]

Still I think the only thing that will determine the outcome of this election is the number of jobs that are created in the next 9 months or so.  It will need to be quite high for Bush to remain.  The average 'swing' voter apparently has no understanding of or interest in GDP growth, only jobs.

I think the average voter just says "am I better off than I was 4 years ago".  If the answer is yes they vote for the incumbant party.  If no, they go with the opposition.

Well, the great majority of people are in fact better off than they were four years ago.  The difference is a couple or three million more are unemployed, and more importantly this makes the rest anxious.  In material terms 95%+ of voters are actually better off, but it is all about perceptions.

I'm not really sure how you can say that the majority of people are better off.  Clearly the job market isn't as good.  Unemployment is higher.  Salaries aren't growing as quickly as they were.  There's certainly a heightened level of anxiety about terrorism and safety.  The crime rate is up.  And the CDC is reporting higher rates of communicable diseases.

Now I'm not saying that the Bush administration is the cause of any of this.  But I certainly wouldn't say that most people are better off.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Come again? Has unemployment gone up by Three Million under Dubya?

[Gustaf]

It seems to me the only thing that has happened in the last few weeks that voters would care about is the continuing lack of statistical reporting of job creation.  Iraq seems no better or worse than in the past, and I don't think people really care one way or theother about Mars and all that other nonsense BUsh has been up to.  The immigration policy is a total loser however.

Still I think the only thing that will determine the outcome of this election is the number of jobs that are created in the next 9 months or so.  It will need to be quite high for Bush to remain.  The average 'swing' voter apparently has no understanding of or interest in GDP growth, only jobs.

If the GDP growth doesn't benefit them they have no reason to be happy about it. And growth does not produce jobs, that's nonsense. It gives higher real wages, but not necessarily more jobs.

[opebo]

It seems to me the only thing that has happened in the last few weeks that voters would care about is the continuing lack of statistical reporting of job creation.  Iraq seems no better or worse than in the past, and I don't think people really care one way or theother about Mars and all that other nonsense BUsh has been up to.  The immigration policy is a total loser however.

Still I think the only thing that will determine the outcome of this election is the number of jobs that are created in the next 9 months or so.  It will need to be quite high for Bush to remain.  The average 'swing' voter apparently has no understanding of or interest in GDP growth, only jobs.

If the GDP growth doesn't benefit them they have no reason to be happy about it. And growth does not produce jobs, that's nonsense. It gives higher real wages, but not necessarily more jobs.

Yes, thats the point - the majority of people, who are employed, are better off.  The small minority who are unemployed are quite a bit worse off.  So even though the average worker is making more now than three years ago, and is benefiting from lower interest rates and other deflationary phenoma, he is feeling anxious about his job due to the others being unemployed.  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mass Unemployment is a terrible thing.

[Gustaf]

It seems to me the only thing that has happened in the last few weeks that voters would care about is the continuing lack of statistical reporting of job creation.  Iraq seems no better or worse than in the past, and I don't think people really care one way or theother about Mars and all that other nonsense BUsh has been up to.  The immigration policy is a total loser however.

Still I think the only thing that will determine the outcome of this election is the number of jobs that are created in the next 9 months or so.  It will need to be quite high for Bush to remain.  The average 'swing' voter apparently has no understanding of or interest in GDP growth, only jobs.

If the GDP growth doesn't benefit them they have no reason to be happy about it. And growth does not produce jobs, that's nonsense. It gives higher real wages, but not necessarily more jobs.

Yes, thats the point - the majority of people, who are employed, are better off.  The small minority who are unemployed are quite a bit worse off.  So even though the average worker is making more now than three years ago, and is benefiting from lower interest rates and other deflationary phenoma, he is feeling anxious about his job due to the others being unemployed.  

Well, it's a matter of perception, but also of choice. Would you be willing to lower your wage to ensure that you get to keep your job? It's always a balance between safety and wage to be maintained.