Religious denomination of Southern elites

[King of Kensington]

Among upper class Southern Protestants what would the religious split among Baptists, Methodists, Episcopalians, Presbyterians look like?

Episcopalians and Presbyterians are obviously overrepresented but Baptists may still be a plurality given their much larger numbers. 

[Skill and Chance]

In the present day?  If you just define "elite" by an income cutoff that isn't insanely high (something into the 6 figures but <$500K), they are almost surely plurality Baptist/non-denominational credobaptist.  If you start looking only at 7 figure incomes or families that have stayed "elite" since the 19th century, probably Episcopalian.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I kind of suspect that Southern Episcopalians are one of the groups most likely to be white Democrats in the South.

Remember that despite what Atlas likes to believe, religious affiliation is not static amongst generations. Plenty of conservatives brought up Episcopalian there have likely gone Southern Baptist/Pentecostal/etc. People who are still Episcopalian can't be that socially conservative.

[RINO Tom]

I kind of suspect that Southern Episcopalians are one of the groups most likely to be white Democrats in the South.

Remember that despite what Atlas likes to believe, religious affiliation is not static amongst generations. Plenty of conservatives brought up Episcopalian there have likely gone Southern Baptist/Pentecostal/etc. People who are still Episcopalian can't be that socially conservative.

Eh, they’d be more likely to be liberal but Mainline Protestant church members certainly are not as liberal as the positions their relatively out of touch church leaders take on social issues.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I kind of suspect that Southern Episcopalians are one of the groups most likely to be white Democrats in the South.

Remember that despite what Atlas likes to believe, religious affiliation is not static amongst generations. Plenty of conservatives brought up Episcopalian there have likely gone Southern Baptist/Pentecostal/etc. People who are still Episcopalian can't be that socially conservative.

Eh, they’d be more likely to be liberal but Mainline Protestant church members certainly are not as liberal as the positions their relatively out of touch church leaders take on social issues.

Supporting same sex marriage today is not "out of touch".

[Del Tachi]

I kind of suspect that Southern Episcopalians are one of the groups most likely to be white Democrats in the South.

Remember that despite what Atlas likes to believe, religious affiliation is not static amongst generations. Plenty of conservatives brought up Episcopalian there have likely gone Southern Baptist/Pentecostal/etc. People who are still Episcopalian can't be that socially conservative.

I beg to differ.  A major reason why the "Main Line" continues to shrink is because their pews are still full of, if not conservative, then at least traditional Christians.  Their exodus will continue as long as mainline clergy and seminaries claim it is their right to instruct the faithful in more "progressive" spiritual and political views.

But to answer OP's question, where I grew up in Mississippi seemed defined mostly by a Baptist/Methodist split with the Methodists having slightly more social capital than everyone else. 

[Sol]

I kind of suspect that Southern Episcopalians are one of the groups most likely to be white Democrats in the South.

Remember that despite what Atlas likes to believe, religious affiliation is not static amongst generations. Plenty of conservatives brought up Episcopalian there have likely gone Southern Baptist/Pentecostal/etc. People who are still Episcopalian can't be that socially conservative.

There's a certain stratum of upper-class southern life which is still pretty mainline Protestant; the divide between them and Baptists/Pentecostals/etc. is as much a class divide as a theological divide. People of this stratum remain fairly conservative. Anecdotally, a close friend is from this kind of background, and the environment he was raised in was very socially conservative in an almost a 1950s way. Exactly what percentage of Episcopalians in the South are of that stratum is much less clear ofc.

[Skill and Chance]

I kind of suspect that Southern Episcopalians are one of the groups most likely to be white Democrats in the South.

Remember that despite what Atlas likes to believe, religious affiliation is not static amongst generations. Plenty of conservatives brought up Episcopalian there have likely gone Southern Baptist/Pentecostal/etc. People who are still Episcopalian can't be that socially conservative.

There's a certain stratum of upper-class southern life which is still pretty mainline Protestant; the divide between them and Baptists/Pentecostals/etc. is as much a class divide as a theological divide. People of this stratum remain fairly conservative. Anecdotally, a close friend is from this kind of background, and the environment he was raised in was very socially conservative in an almost a 1950s way. Exactly what percentage of Episcopalians in the South are of that stratum is much less clear ofc.

Conservative Episcopalians are definitely a thing in the South.  In my experience, it's much more of an Upper South thing than Deep South (you would generally expect someone whose family has stayed in VA/NC since colonial times to be Episcopalian and not politically liberal).  However, the previous comment is definitely true.  We very much have a free market system of religion in the US with lots of conversions in each generation, to an extent unseen in the Old World where state churches are/were common ("my family has been Catholic or Orthodox for 1000 years or Anglican for 500 years...").  And we live in an era when the Baptists/non-denominationals (who usually have Baptist-adjacent theology) are winning and dramatically increasing their "market share" of Christianity. 

However, having been to all, I can say an Episcopalian service and a Southern Baptist/credobaptist non-denominational service feel about as different as you can get within Christianity.  It's like 10X the difference in feel between a mainline Protestant service and a Catholic mass.  Reasonable to think that they don't get a lot of people switching between them.  I would generally expect disaffected conservative Episcopalians to go Catholic.

[RI]

I realize income isn't a perfect proxy for "elites" but in the old Confederacy, VOTER data has religious affiliation overall as:

19 Catholic
18 No Religion
17 Baptist
  7 Non-Denominational
  6 Agnostic
  5 Methodist
  4 Atheist
  3 Presbyterian
  2 Church of Christ
  2 Jewish
  2 Lutheran
  2 Pentecostal
  1 Buddhist
  1 Episcopalian
  1 Holiness
  1 LDS
  1 Muslim

Among Southerners making >$150k:

29 Catholic
11 No Religion
  9 Baptist
  9 Methodist
  8 Jewish
  5 Agnostic
  5 Atheist
  5 Presbyterian
  4 Non-Denom
  3 Episcopalian
  2 LDS
  2 Lutheran
  2 Pentecostal
  1 Church of Christ

If you want only Protestants, you get:

Denom	Overall	>$150k
Baptist	41.1	24.7
Non-Denom	18.1	9.7
Methodist	12.5	25.7
Presbyterian	6.0	12.5
Pentecostal	4.1	4.1
Lutheran	3.9	5.0
Episcopalian	2.7	9.2

And although it's a pretty small sample, Trump won >$150k Southerners of all Protestant denominations except Episcopalians who were overwhelmingly (>90%) Democrats.

[King of Kensington]

That seems reasonable except for the Southern Episcopalians voting 90% D!

[Skill and Chance]

I realize income isn't a perfect proxy for "elites" but in the old Confederacy, VOTER data has religious affiliation overall as:

19 Catholic
18 No Religion
17 Baptist
  7 Non-Denominational
  6 Agnostic
  5 Methodist
  4 Atheist
  3 Presbyterian
  2 Church of Christ
  2 Jewish
  2 Lutheran
  2 Pentecostal
  1 Buddhist
  1 Episcopalian
  1 Holiness
  1 LDS
  1 Muslim

Among Southerners making >$150k:

29 Catholic
11 No Religion
  9 Baptist
  9 Methodist
  8 Jewish
  5 Agnostic
  5 Atheist
  5 Presbyterian
  4 Non-Denom
  3 Episcopalian
  2 LDS
  2 Lutheran
  2 Pentecostal
  1 Church of Christ

If you want only Protestants, you get:

Denom	Overall	>$150k
Baptist	41.1	24.7
Non-Denom	18.1	9.7
Methodist	12.5	25.7
Presbyterian	6.0	12.5
Pentecostal	4.1	4.1
Lutheran	3.9	5.0
Episcopalian	2.7	9.2

And although it's a pretty small sample, Trump won >$150k Southerners of all Protestant denominations except Episcopalians who were overwhelmingly (>90%) Democrats.

So it's Methodists who overtake Baptists, not Episcopalians!  That makes more sense in terms of switching as they are culturally more of a halfway point between low church and high church.  Also VA/NC are relatively small compared to the South as a whole.

[King of Kensington]

Makes sense.  Methodists seem to be largely a solidly middle class group with sizeable numbers.  Episcopalians are too small a group to "dominate."

Some measures of relative elite status from the 2014 Pew Religious Landscape study (not just for the South):

College degree

Episcopalian  56%
United Methodist  37%
Southern Baptist  19%

$100,000+

Episcopalian  35%
United Methodist  26%
Southern Baptist  16%

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/11/04/the-most-and-least-educated-u-s-religious-groups/

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/10/11/how-income-varies-among-u-s-religious-groups/
 
Methodists have twice the college graduate share as Baptists.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

That seems reasonable except for the Southern Episcopalians voting 90% D!

There's also a non-trivial number of conservative "Anglican" churches that operate in a similar way relative to Episcopalianism as a LCMS or PCA church would relative to a ELCA or PCUSA one.  I'm not sure how they'd be classified in something like this.

But, a lot of well-off Southerners (maybe more upper-middle class than uber-wealthy) are super active in Southern Baptist and non-denominational churches too.  And, those are far more numerous than Episcopalian ones.

[Skill and Chance]

That seems reasonable except for the Southern Episcopalians voting 90% D!

There's also a non-trivial number of conservative "Anglican" churches that operate in a similar way relative to Episcopalianism as a LCMS or PCA church would relative to a ELCA or PCUSA one.  I'm not sure how they'd be classified in something like this.

But, a lot of well-off Southerners (maybe more upper-middle class than uber-wealthy) are super active in Southern Baptist and non-denominational churches too.  And, those are far more numerous than Episcopalian ones.

I think this is just a further reminder about the dynamic nature of religion, conversions, and "market share" in a free country.  TBH it wouldn't shock me if the plurality of American Christians in 2100 belong to an as-yet unknown denomination founded in a future Great Awakening style revival based in a currently very secular area!

[King of Kensington]

So quite an overrepresentation of Catholics.  I'm wonder if this is due to migrants from other parts of the country being overrepresented in the high income group.

[UWS]

There are also Cuban-Americans in Florida who represent an important of Catholic population in the South that overwhelmingly vote Republican

[RINO Tom]

I kind of suspect that Southern Episcopalians are one of the groups most likely to be white Democrats in the South.

Remember that despite what Atlas likes to believe, religious affiliation is not static amongst generations. Plenty of conservatives brought up Episcopalian there have likely gone Southern Baptist/Pentecostal/etc. People who are still Episcopalian can't be that socially conservative.

Eh, they’d be more likely to be liberal but Mainline Protestant church members certainly are not as liberal as the positions their relatively out of touch church leaders take on social issues.

Supporting same sex marriage today is not "out of touch".

Are you talking to yourself or just assuming that this is the only issue I could have been referencing…?

[RINO Tom]

FWIW, these are the political preferences for some specific Protestant denominations that have been mentioned in what Pew defines as the South in 2014.  I also included what percent of adherents were in the highest income bracket in Pew's study ($100k+).  Also for simplicity's sake, I am defining the SBC as Southern Baptist and the ABCUSA as Northern Baptist:

Southern Baptist: 67% GOP, 24% DEM ... 16% 100k or more.
Presbyterian (PCA): 62% GOP, 26% DEM ... 25% 100k or more.
Pentecostal (AoG): 59% GOP, 25% DEM ... 11% 100k or more.
Methodist (UMC): 58% GOP, 32% DEM ... 27% 100k or more.
Lutheran (ELCA): 54% GOP, 35% DEM ... 20% 100k or more.
Restorationist (CoC): 52% GOP, 35% DEM ... 18% 100k or more.
Northern Baptist: 43% GOP, 40% DEM ... 9% 100k or more.
Episcopalian: 49% DEM, 40% GOP ... 42% 100k or more.
Presbyterian (PCUSA): 50% DEM, 40% GOP ... 34% 100k or more.

It's also worth noting that some of these denominations are REALLY White, and some are not.  Presbyterians in the South are almost exclusively White, while Pentecostals listed above are only 62% White.  That is going to skew income AND political numbers.

[King of Kensington]

Are these partisan leans and income figures for only those living in the South?

[RINO Tom]

Are these partisan leans and income figures for only those living in the South?

Yeah, as defined by Pew.  On my phone now, but I think they use the Census (Confederacy, Oklahoma, Kentucky, West Virginia, Maryland and Delaware).

[Irenaeus of Smyrna]

I kind of suspect that Southern Episcopalians are one of the groups most likely to be white Democrats in the South.

Remember that despite what Atlas likes to believe, religious affiliation is not static amongst generations. Plenty of conservatives brought up Episcopalian there have likely gone Southern Baptist/Pentecostal/etc. People who are still Episcopalian can't be that socially conservative.

Why would someone that is convinced of Episcopal/anglican theology become a Baptist over just politics. When the ACNA exist. There are larger issues some people will not sacrafice like the liturgy. I'm not an anglican/episcopalian but i would find it hard to go from liturgical service to something else

Also you might find this data interesting this data from all anglican churches not just the Episcopal.  I can't post links yet but here. www pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/religious-denomination/anglican-church/

58% Republican/leanRep. 5% no lean, 37% Democrat/leanDem

[RINO Tom]

Also interesting to look at Mainline Protestants as a whole by region.  Again, please keep in mind that this is how Pew defines regions (I know a lot of people would consider Maryland Northeastern and not Southern) and how Pew defines Mainline Protestants (personally, I fundamentally reject categorizing classical Protestants who baptize infants, have liturgy and uphold the importance of sacraments like PCA Presbyterians and LCMS Lutherans as "Evangelical"), so take it for what it is:

South: 48% GOP, 38% DEM
Midwest: 43% GOP, 41% DEM
Northeast: 42% GOP, 42% DEM
West: 41% GOP, 41% DEM

And this is what I was trying to reference earlier with BRTD.  Especially in areas where Mainline Protestant churches are still the strongest (i.e., the Midwest and the Northeast), the population of church members is going to be far more mainstream (and thus less liberal) than the church leadership.  I would wager that the breakdown for Mainline Protestant pastors is closer to 75% DEM.

Anecdotally, I have been Lutheran my whole life and have gone to two ELCA churches - one in Iowa City and one in Chicago, so NOT exactly places you'd expect to find conservatives, haha (liberal churches in liberal areas).  My pastors (especially in the last 5+ years) have clearly been quite liberal when it comes to social justice and cultural issues, but the pews are significantly to the right of that.  They aren't rabidly right wing by any means (frankly, most of us just seem to roll our eyes and do not WANT to be pastored about contemporary political issues ... what a novel concept!), but they are not accurately represented by the type of stuff you'd see posted by the ELCA's social media accounts where there are eight posts in a day about Missing Indigenous Women's Awareness Month and one on Easter.

[King of Kensington]

In Canada, where there are obviously fewer Protestant denominations and a different religious landscape, the general rule is mainline Protestants = Anglicans, Lutherans, Presbyterians, United Church.

The "fundie Lutherans" vs. "mainline Lutherans" doesn't seem to be a thing here (albeit there's few Lutherans in Canada and I don't believe I know any).

[King of Kensington]

Not surprisingly, the most Episcopalian metro area is Washington DC.  It obviously has a lot of that elite WASP demographic (with roots in both the North and South).

What's the Episcopalian partisan lean for other regions?

[Skill and Chance]

I kind of suspect that Southern Episcopalians are one of the groups most likely to be white Democrats in the South.

Remember that despite what Atlas likes to believe, religious affiliation is not static amongst generations. Plenty of conservatives brought up Episcopalian there have likely gone Southern Baptist/Pentecostal/etc. People who are still Episcopalian can't be that socially conservative.

Why would someone that is convinced of Episcopal/anglican theology become a Baptist over just politics. When the ACNA exist. There are larger issues some people will not sacrafice like the liturgy. I'm not an anglican/episcopalian but i would find it hard to go from liturgical service to something else

Also you might find this data interesting this data from all anglican churches not just the Episcopal.  I can't post links yet but here. www pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/religious-denomination/anglican-church/

58% Republican/leanRep. 5% no lean, 37% Democrat/leanDem

The real question mark is where young credobaptists on the socially moderate/progressive side will end up over time?  The ABC USA has been in long term decline and is probably too small to revive at this point.  Perhaps this is the most fertile ground for a new denomination that eventually includes several % of the population?