White immigrants to US voting patterns

[mileslunn]

GOP has won white vote every election since 1968 but wondering amongst whites born abroad how they vote?  That cohort obviously not that big but Australia, Canada, and Europe in every survey done on how they would vote in US elections shows by lopsided margin most favor Democrats so wonder if immigrants from those countries more like original or more like whites in US?

My guess is following:

Russians - Went heavily for Trump

Eastern Europeans - Polish leaned Trump, but Democrats ahead amongst Jewish and Muslims (mostly Bosnian)

Italians and other Mediterranean - Mixed maybe slight advantage Trump but close to 50/50

Mainland Northern Europeans - Dutch probably for Trump, Germans mixed but lean Trump amongst those who came as children, but lean Biden amongst those who came as adults.  French probably went Biden as did those from Scandinavian countries although latter quite tiny.

British & Irish - Irish likely Biden while British immigrants probably strongest for Democrats amongst those born in Europe as most are usually university educated so high skilled types unlike Eastern European or Mediterranean who are more likely to be working class.  If working class in Northern Europe, little incentive to move to US while if highly educated more job opportunities, higher pay, and yes lower taxes (but only matters for some).

Australian - Hard to say but likely strongly Democrat

Canadian - This cohort probably the most Democrat of white immigrants even more so than British.  Besides Canada being quite liberal, most Canadians who move to US do so for work with the intention of returning home and a lot probably never get citizenship, but those who do likely vote along similar lines to university educated Canadians, which are quite liberal. 

Any thoughts here?  My guess is overall Biden narrowly won foreign born whites but mixed as mentioned above.  But whites with a foreign born parent, pretty sure Trump won that group.

[King of Kensington]

I'm pretty sure FSU-born Jews are very R.

[mileslunn]

I'm pretty sure FSU-born Jews are very R.

I think it depends but probably more R than American born Jews.  Certainly Haredi ones would be.  Also just Russians in general probably are as Little Russia in Brooklyn went heavily for Trump.

[MarkD]

I hope you are referring to "immigrants" after they have naturalized and became US citizens. If that's the case, I don't believe we can have a pat answer, because there are too many variables -- where were they from, why did they immigrate, and numerous other factors will determine how they will vote.

[mileslunn]

I hope you are referring to "immigrants" after they have naturalized and became US citizens. If that's the case, I don't believe we can have a pat answer, because there are too many variables -- where were they from, why did they immigrate, and numerous other factors will determine how they will vote.

Absolutely and these are more educated guesses based on demographics they come from.  A few like Russians they have specific precincts you can look it, Little Russia in Brooklyn but others all guesses.  1.5% of Americans born in Europe and around 0.4% born in Canada who are probably mostly white.  Not all are citizens off course but some would be.

[Upper Canada Tory]

GOP has won white vote every election since 1968 but wondering amongst whites born abroad how they vote?  That cohort obviously not that big but Australia, Canada, and Europe in every survey done on how they would vote in US elections shows by lopsided margin most favor Democrats so wonder if immigrants from those countries more like original or more like whites in US?

My guess is following:

Russians - Went heavily for Trump

Eastern Europeans - Polish leaned Trump, but Democrats ahead amongst Jewish and Muslims (mostly Bosnian)

Italians and other Mediterranean - Mixed maybe slight advantage Trump but close to 50/50

Mainland Northern Europeans - Dutch probably for Trump, Germans mixed but lean Trump amongst those who came as children, but lean Biden amongst those who came as adults.  French probably went Biden as did those from Scandinavian countries although latter quite tiny.

British & Irish - Irish likely Biden while British immigrants probably strongest for Democrats amongst those born in Europe as most are usually university educated so high skilled types unlike Eastern European or Mediterranean who are more likely to be working class.  If working class in Northern Europe, little incentive to move to US while if highly educated more job opportunities, higher pay, and yes lower taxes (but only matters for some).

Australian - Hard to say but likely strongly Democrat

Canadian - This cohort probably the most Democrat of white immigrants even more so than British.  Besides Canada being quite liberal, most Canadians who move to US do so for work with the intention of returning home and a lot probably never get citizenship, but those who do likely vote along similar lines to university educated Canadians, which are quite liberal.  

Any thoughts here?  My guess is overall Biden narrowly won foreign born whites but mixed as mentioned above.  But whites with a foreign born parent, pretty sure Trump won that group.

How do you define 'Russians'? Anyone who immigrated from Russia, or from the former Soviet Union as a whole? Ethnic Russians only, or do Ukrainians, Jews, etc who speak Russian count? Either way it would probably be a mostly GOP-voting demographic, but the nuances matter.

Regarding Canadian immigrants to the US, I would dispute the argument that Canadians in the USA are overwhelmingly Democrat voters. I'm sure many are, but based on my personal experience from people I know, right-leaning Canadians (or at least culturally Americanized Canadians, who tend to be more right-leaning) tend to be more likely to move to the US and tend to vote Republican once they get there and become citizens.

Thirdly, 'white immigrants' is a bit of an incomplete term because countries like Canada and Australia have a significant percentage of non-white citizens. If a non-white Canadian immigrates to the US are they considered as part of the group for voting patterns?

[mileslunn]

GOP has won white vote every election since 1968 but wondering amongst whites born abroad how they vote?  That cohort obviously not that big but Australia, Canada, and Europe in every survey done on how they would vote in US elections shows by lopsided margin most favor Democrats so wonder if immigrants from those countries more like original or more like whites in US?

My guess is following:

Russians - Went heavily for Trump

Eastern Europeans - Polish leaned Trump, but Democrats ahead amongst Jewish and Muslims (mostly Bosnian)

Italians and other Mediterranean - Mixed maybe slight advantage Trump but close to 50/50

Mainland Northern Europeans - Dutch probably for Trump, Germans mixed but lean Trump amongst those who came as children, but lean Biden amongst those who came as adults.  French probably went Biden as did those from Scandinavian countries although latter quite tiny.

British & Irish - Irish likely Biden while British immigrants probably strongest for Democrats amongst those born in Europe as most are usually university educated so high skilled types unlike Eastern European or Mediterranean who are more likely to be working class.  If working class in Northern Europe, little incentive to move to US while if highly educated more job opportunities, higher pay, and yes lower taxes (but only matters for some).

Australian - Hard to say but likely strongly Democrat

Canadian - This cohort probably the most Democrat of white immigrants even more so than British.  Besides Canada being quite liberal, most Canadians who move to US do so for work with the intention of returning home and a lot probably never get citizenship, but those who do likely vote along similar lines to university educated Canadians, which are quite liberal.  

Any thoughts here?  My guess is overall Biden narrowly won foreign born whites but mixed as mentioned above.  But whites with a foreign born parent, pretty sure Trump won that group.

How do you define 'Russians'? Anyone who immigrated from Russia, or from the former Soviet Union as a whole? Ethnic Russians only, or do Ukrainians, Jews, etc who speak Russian count? Either way it would probably be a mostly GOP-voting demographic, but the nuances matter.

Regarding Canadian immigrants to the US, I would dispute the argument that Canadians in the USA are overwhelmingly Democrat voters. I'm sure many are, but based on my personal experience from people I know, right-leaning Canadians (or at least culturally Americanized Canadians, who tend to be more right-leaning) tend to be more likely to move to the US and tend to vote Republican once they get there and become citizens.

Thirdly, 'white immigrants' is a bit of an incomplete term because countries like Canada and Australia have a significant percentage of non-white citizens. If a non-white Canadian immigrates to the US are they considered as part of the group for voting patterns?

It means white immigrants although yes Canada and Australia have some non-whites, heck even some European such as British would be non-white so referring to white as on exit polls and statistics that is how they are grouped.  I suspect in case of British, non-white would vote differently than white although with Canada might be one of rare cases where little difference which is a reflection of how tolerant and integrated populations are in Canada.

As for Russians, good point, but I mean immigrants from Russia just in general.  It would be Russia as in current boundaries; if former USSR then whatever country now part of as I suspect someone from Estonia or Kazakhstan would vote differently than Russia even though number from those two is pretty minuscule. 

[Upper Canada Tory]

GOP has won white vote every election since 1968 but wondering amongst whites born abroad how they vote?  That cohort obviously not that big but Australia, Canada, and Europe in every survey done on how they would vote in US elections shows by lopsided margin most favor Democrats so wonder if immigrants from those countries more like original or more like whites in US?

My guess is following:

Russians - Went heavily for Trump

Eastern Europeans - Polish leaned Trump, but Democrats ahead amongst Jewish and Muslims (mostly Bosnian)

Italians and other Mediterranean - Mixed maybe slight advantage Trump but close to 50/50

Mainland Northern Europeans - Dutch probably for Trump, Germans mixed but lean Trump amongst those who came as children, but lean Biden amongst those who came as adults.  French probably went Biden as did those from Scandinavian countries although latter quite tiny.

British & Irish - Irish likely Biden while British immigrants probably strongest for Democrats amongst those born in Europe as most are usually university educated so high skilled types unlike Eastern European or Mediterranean who are more likely to be working class.  If working class in Northern Europe, little incentive to move to US while if highly educated more job opportunities, higher pay, and yes lower taxes (but only matters for some).

Australian - Hard to say but likely strongly Democrat

Canadian - This cohort probably the most Democrat of white immigrants even more so than British.  Besides Canada being quite liberal, most Canadians who move to US do so for work with the intention of returning home and a lot probably never get citizenship, but those who do likely vote along similar lines to university educated Canadians, which are quite liberal.  

Any thoughts here?  My guess is overall Biden narrowly won foreign born whites but mixed as mentioned above.  But whites with a foreign born parent, pretty sure Trump won that group.

How do you define 'Russians'? Anyone who immigrated from Russia, or from the former Soviet Union as a whole? Ethnic Russians only, or do Ukrainians, Jews, etc who speak Russian count? Either way it would probably be a mostly GOP-voting demographic, but the nuances matter.

Regarding Canadian immigrants to the US, I would dispute the argument that Canadians in the USA are overwhelmingly Democrat voters. I'm sure many are, but based on my personal experience from people I know, right-leaning Canadians (or at least culturally Americanized Canadians, who tend to be more right-leaning) tend to be more likely to move to the US and tend to vote Republican once they get there and become citizens.

Thirdly, 'white immigrants' is a bit of an incomplete term because countries like Canada and Australia have a significant percentage of non-white citizens. If a non-white Canadian immigrates to the US are they considered as part of the group for voting patterns?

It means white immigrants although yes Canada and Australia have some non-whites, heck even some European such as British would be non-white so referring to white as on exit polls and statistics that is how they are grouped.  I suspect in case of British, non-white would vote differently than white although with Canada might be one of rare cases where little difference which is a reflection of how tolerant and integrated populations are in Canada.

As for Russians, good point, but I mean immigrants from Russia just in general.  It would be Russia as in current boundaries; if former USSR then whatever country now part of as I suspect someone from Estonia or Kazakhstan would vote differently than Russia even though number from those two is pretty minuscule.  

But my point is, ethnic Russians from Estonia or Kazakhstan would then be excluded from this group? In the context of US politics, there is no meaningful difference between the political identity of an ethnic Russian immigrant from Estonia vs one from Moscow (the Estonian Russian would probably be more pro-Western in geopolitics, but still would be as inclined to vote for the GOP as a Russian from Moscow).

But as you said, the number of immigrants from other post-Soviet states is miniscule so it may not make much of a difference.

[Vosem]

I'm pretty sure FSU-born Jews are very R.

I think it depends but probably more R than American born Jews.  Certainly Haredi ones would be.  Also just Russians in general probably are as Little Russia in Brooklyn went heavily for Trump.

We have the opposite pattern of American-born Jews: among American-born Jews, those most assimilated tend to be the most Republican, while the least assimilated tend to be the most Democratic. (Or at least this was true before the mid-2010s; since then things have flipped a little bit). Among FSU-born Jews (or their children), the most assimilated tend to be the most Democratic, while the least assimilated tend to be the most Republican. Like, in my experience "do you still at least occasionally consume Russian-language media" is a perfect test: those who do virtually all support Republicans, while those who don't virtually all support Democrats. (Or at least this was true before the mid-2010s; I think there's actually been a sizable swing back to the GOP in the Trump era).

I love foreign languages and consume media in Russian all the time (...and for that matter also in Spanish, and I try with German and Hebrew though frankly they are quite poor), so in that sense it makes perfect sense that I would still support the Republican party. (Also, consuming Spanish-language media -- which I very much do -- has become associated with swinging rightwards after 2019 or so, and I've very much retrenched in my views after being somewhat more moderate around 2015-2018.)

[King of Kensington]

We have the opposite pattern of American-born Jews: among American-born Jews, those most assimilated tend to be the most Republican, while the least assimilated tend to be the most Democratic. (Or at least this was true before the mid-2010s; since then things have flipped a little bit).

Not sure if that's true anymore.  Democratic voting by non-Orthodox, American-born Jews used to be distinctive, now they're voting like the less religious/high education demographic more generally.

[Vosem]

We have the opposite pattern of American-born Jews: among American-born Jews, those most assimilated tend to be the most Republican, while the least assimilated tend to be the most Democratic. (Or at least this was true before the mid-2010s; since then things have flipped a little bit).

Not sure if that's true anymore.  Democratic voting by non-Orthodox, American-born Jews used to be distinctive, now they're voting like the less religious/high education demographic more generally.

Yeah, I agree. Jews also shifted towards the Republicans in 2020 while most college-educated Americans shifted Democratic; a lot of those observations are sort of out-of-date. (And my guess is that a lot of that shift was fueled by Jews with relatively recent migration backgrounds -- khuzifenq likes to distinguish post-1965 migration waves from pre-1965 migration waves, though I think for Jewish immigrants a much earlier event -- the establishment of the USSR -- might be the more relevant dividing line.)

[mileslunn]

Going on foreign born, below are following predominately white non-Hispanic countries that have more than 100,000 born in that country living in US.  I say non-Hispanic as most Cubans are usually white, but classified as Hispanic.

 I also left out Middle Eastern countries as even though US census defines them as white, this has been discussed on other forums.  Although Arabs usually favor Democrats although I believe Bush in 2000 was last time GOP won them.  Dearborn, Michigan best place to look.  For Iranians, I think they lean Democrat, but GOP does well as Beverly Hills has large Iranian community and Trump got over 40% there.

Canada - Probably Democrat and likely one of strongest   
United Kingdom   - Mostly high skilled like Canadians so also Democrat
Germany - Mixed, likely split along education lines   
Poland - Lean GOP, Democrat in past, Obama probably won here, but then went Trump   
Russia - GOP especially amongst non Jewish.  Jewish lean Democrat but less than American born   
Ukraine - Jewish Democrat, non-Jewish mixed but Trump's stance probably pushes many to Dems   
Italy   - Lean GOP, but historically leaned Democrat
France - Probably Democrat as most high skilled but vote centre-right in French elections.
Romania - Lean Democrat, live in large cities mostly   
Portugal - Democrat but trending GOP, most in Rhode Island & Massachusetts   
Israel - Mixed but more GOP than American born Jews, but less right wing than Israelis
Greece - Lean Democrat but trending GOP as more working class but in large cities   
Spain - Probably Democrat.  Quite distinct from other Hispanics or Spanish heritage in NM   
Ireland - Lean Democrat but more working class mixed, high skilled more heavily Democrat   
Bosnia and Herzegovina - May have gone GOP in past but due to Islamophobia, Democrat.   

So in summary, Canadians, British, Ukrainians and Bosnians probably most Democrat.  Greek and Portuguese lean Democrat but Trump likely got over 40% whereas Romney in McCain only in 30s.  French is hard to say as many high skilled so should be Democrat but in French elections, overseas voters in US vote heavily for parties on right.  It seems more left wing French immigrants to North America go mostly to Canada, US attracts more conservative ones.  Italy, Poland and Russia are ones I suspect GOP does best with.  Irish and Germans likely split on when they came.  Older ones who came as children likely vote GOP as more working class and in latter rural while those that came in last 20 years likely strongly Democrat as probably like Canadians & British, mostly high skilled educated workers.  

[mileslunn]

We have the opposite pattern of American-born Jews: among American-born Jews, those most assimilated tend to be the most Republican, while the least assimilated tend to be the most Democratic. (Or at least this was true before the mid-2010s; since then things have flipped a little bit).

Not sure if that's true anymore.  Democratic voting by non-Orthodox, American-born Jews used to be distinctive, now they're voting like the less religious/high education demographic more generally.

Yeah, I agree. Jews also shifted towards the Republicans in 2020 while most college-educated Americans shifted Democratic; a lot of those observations are sort of out-of-date. (And my guess is that a lot of that shift was fueled by Jews with relatively recent migration backgrounds -- khuzifenq likes to distinguish post-1965 migration waves from pre-1965 migration waves, though I think for Jewish immigrants a much earlier event -- the establishment of the USSR -- might be the more relevant dividing line.)

Also could more who are not Ashkenazi Jews as in Israel Sephardic and Mizrahi Jews tend to vote more heavily for parties on right than Ashkenazi do.  Also a lot of the more liberal ones I think came from Poland while more recent ones from Russia as mentioned more conservative.  Many from Eastern Europe during Cold War very anti-communist like Cubans and Vietnamese so probably much like those two favor GOP.

[Tintrlvr]

Eastern Europeans - Polish leaned Trump, but Democrats ahead amongst Jewish and Muslims (mostly Bosnian)

For what it's worth on the Muslim figures, the Albanian neighborhood in NYC around Morris Park is actually pretty evenly split with IIRC some Republican precincts, and clearly the white vote there is Republican. Bosnian Muslims probably outnumber Albanian/Kosovar Muslims in the U.S., together those should be the vast majority of white (for this purpose excluding Arabs, Turks, Persians, etc. from "white" as that seems to be implied, although the Census would call them white) Muslim immigrants, and I would think Bosnian Muslims are likely quite Democratic given the history, but white Muslim immigrants are probably not that Democratic overall given the Albanian vote.

I don't know of any predominantly Bosnian neighborhoods to test the Bosnian figures on.

[Vosem]

We have the opposite pattern of American-born Jews: among American-born Jews, those most assimilated tend to be the most Republican, while the least assimilated tend to be the most Democratic. (Or at least this was true before the mid-2010s; since then things have flipped a little bit).

Not sure if that's true anymore.  Democratic voting by non-Orthodox, American-born Jews used to be distinctive, now they're voting like the less religious/high education demographic more generally.

Yeah, I agree. Jews also shifted towards the Republicans in 2020 while most college-educated Americans shifted Democratic; a lot of those observations are sort of out-of-date. (And my guess is that a lot of that shift was fueled by Jews with relatively recent migration backgrounds -- khuzifenq likes to distinguish post-1965 migration waves from pre-1965 migration waves, though I think for Jewish immigrants a much earlier event -- the establishment of the USSR -- might be the more relevant dividing line.)

Also could more who are not Ashkenazi Jews as in Israel Sephardic and Mizrahi Jews tend to vote more heavily for parties on right than Ashkenazi do.  Also a lot of the more liberal ones I think came from Poland while more recent ones from Russia as mentioned more conservative.  Many from Eastern Europe during Cold War very anti-communist like Cubans and Vietnamese so probably much like those two favor GOP.

Sure; entirely anecdotally, I've noticed a pattern in both American and Israeli politics where Ashkenazi Jews from further east tend towards more right-wing opinions -- where Ukrainian Jews are right of the Poles, and then Russians are right of the Ukrainians, and so forth. My paternal grandparents lived in different parts of the USSR because of my grandfather's military career, but they mostly raised my father and his siblings in Krasnoyarsk -- very far east by Ashkenazi Jewish standards -- and prior to that they had spent a year stationed on Sakhalin Island. But I haven't seen any studies demonstrating this and I'm not sure what the causal mechanism would be.

[mileslunn]

Eastern Europeans - Polish leaned Trump, but Democrats ahead amongst Jewish and Muslims (mostly Bosnian)

For what it's worth on the Muslim figures, the Albanian neighborhood in NYC around Morris Park is actually pretty evenly split with IIRC some Republican precincts, and clearly the white vote there is Republican. Bosnian Muslims probably outnumber Albanian/Kosovar Muslims in the U.S., together those should be the vast majority of white (for this purpose excluding Arabs, Turks, Persians, etc. from "white" as that seems to be implied, although the Census would call them white) Muslim immigrants, and I would think Bosnian Muslims are likely quite Democratic given the history, but white Muslim immigrants are probably not that Democratic overall given the Albanian vote.

I don't know of any predominantly Bosnian neighborhoods to test the Bosnian figures on.

Albania is super secular as well as I believe in US a lot of the Albanians are Orthodox Christians not Muslim as while Albania is predominately Muslim, they have a large Christian minority.  Bosnia does too, but those who are Christian would identify as Serbian or Croatian not Bosnian.  While Bosnia-Herzegovina is not as religious as Middle East, it is more so than Albania.  Now true many might be Serb or Croats and I am guessing close to even, maybe slight Democrat tilt.  I know in Canada that cohort tends to lean Liberal (don't know about Australia) mind you most ethnic groups in Canada are more left leaning than in US (probably some self selection as Canada has reputation of being more left wing so attracts more left leaning types but off course politics is rarely deciding factor in where to move).  Slovenians I believe Trump won but unlike Bosnians most came to US in early 20th century and nowadays just vote like whites in Ohio do in general (most are in Ohio, particularly Cleveland and Youngstown areas).

[King of Kensington]

We have the opposite pattern of American-born Jews: among American-born Jews, those most assimilated tend to be the most Republican, while the least assimilated tend to be the most Democratic. (Or at least this was true before the mid-2010s; since then things have flipped a little bit).

Not sure if that's true anymore.  Democratic voting by non-Orthodox, American-born Jews used to be distinctive, now they're voting like the less religious/high education demographic more generally.

Yeah, I agree. Jews also shifted towards the Republicans in 2020 while most college-educated Americans shifted Democratic; a lot of those observations are sort of out-of-date. (And my guess is that a lot of that shift was fueled by Jews with relatively recent migration backgrounds -- khuzifenq likes to distinguish post-1965 migration waves from pre-1965 migration waves, though I think for Jewish immigrants a much earlier event -- the establishment of the USSR -- might be the more relevant dividing line.)

Post-1924 I can think of the following waves of Jewish immigration:

German and Austrian Jews in the 1930s and 1940s - included a lot of intellectuals and professionals, generally secular in orientation.  Probably mostly liberal Democrats but some might have been moderate Republican types

Displaced Persons after WWII - Included a lot of Hasidic and Orthodox Jews, as well as a lot of "Jewishly conscious" Jews

Hungarian Jews in 1956-1957 - Not sure how they aligned, but a more urbanized/secular group than the DPs since Jewish population in Hungary was more westernized/assimilated than in Poland

Soviet Jews since 1970 and especially after 1990 - Definitely more conservative, not sure if there's a political difference between pre- and post-Cold War immigrants.  Hawkish on foreign policy.

South African Jews in the 1970s/1980s - As many or more went to Australia and Canada I think.  More conservative as South African Jewry is nominal Orthodox

Persian Jews after 1979 - Definitely more conservative/traditional, hawkish on foreign policy

Israelis - A real mix.  Some are liberals disillusioned by Israel, but still more conservative/traditional than American-born Jews

[DavidB.]

Sure; entirely anecdotally, I've noticed a pattern in both American and Israeli politics where Ashkenazi Jews from further east tend towards more right-wing opinions -- where Ukrainian Jews are right of the Poles, and then Russians are right of the Ukrainians, and so forth. My paternal grandparents lived in different parts of the USSR because of my grandfather's military career, but they mostly raised my father and his siblings in Krasnoyarsk -- very far east by Ashkenazi Jewish standards -- and prior to that they had spent a year stationed on Sakhalin Island. But I haven't seen any studies demonstrating this and I'm not sure what the causal mechanism would be.

The sea is the place of dreams, of ideals, of change. The land is the place of nature, of reality, of eternal continuity. The sea is West. The land is East.

[Alcibiades]

We actually have an interesting data point for Irish immigrants: Woodlawn Heights, a predominantly Irish working-class neighbourhood in the Bronx, which is basically the last ethnic enclave in the US with a sizeable number of Irish-born residents. It narrowly voted for Biden and Clinton. Of course this represents a certain type of Irish immigration, which continued in some numbers until surprisingly recently, because Ireland was quite poor by Western European standards until the 1990s. I wouldn't be surprised if the character of Irish immigration has changed a fair bit in the last couple of decades though, with most now being indistinguishable from the standard highly-educated, professional, very Democratic Western European immigrant to the US.

[mileslunn]

We actually have an interesting data point for Irish immigrants: Woodlawn Heights, a predominantly Irish working-class neighbourhood in the Bronx, which is basically the last ethnic enclave in the US with a sizeable number of Irish-born residents. It narrowly voted for Biden and Clinton. Of course this represents a certain type of Irish immigration, which continued in some numbers until surprisingly recently, because Ireland was quite poor by Western European standards until the 1990s. I wouldn't be surprised if the character of Irish immigration has changed a fair bit in the last couple of decades though, with most now being indistinguishable from the standard highly-educated, professional, very Democratic Western European immigrant to the US.

I am guessing Irish and same with Germans probably a mix with those that came in 20th century being more working class thus more likely to vote GOP or at least fairly evenly split while those that came in 21st century more likely high skilled professionals much like Canadians and British thus heavily favor Democrats.  I generally put Canadians and British and maybe French (but less certain here) as mostly high skilled professionals thus favor Democrats.  Eastern European nationalities and Mediterranean more working class so GOP or if still voting Democrat like Portuguese at least becoming more GOP than in past.  Irish and Germans I see as mix of two with 20th century ones more like Polish and Italians but 21st century more like British and Canadians.

[King of Kensington]

Something like 800,000 immigrants came to the US from Germany after WWII.  They completely dispersed and showed no preference for "German American" areas.  Most of those still alive from that wave came as children.  I assume they vote very close to white Americans generally.

[Tintrlvr]

We actually have an interesting data point for Irish immigrants: Woodlawn Heights, a predominantly Irish working-class neighbourhood in the Bronx, which is basically the last ethnic enclave in the US with a sizeable number of Irish-born residents. It narrowly voted for Biden and Clinton. Of course this represents a certain type of Irish immigration, which continued in some numbers until surprisingly recently, because Ireland was quite poor by Western European standards until the 1990s. I wouldn't be surprised if the character of Irish immigration has changed a fair bit in the last couple of decades though, with most now being indistinguishable from the standard highly-educated, professional, very Democratic Western European immigrant to the US.

Even now you meet a surprising number of new (arrived within the last 5-10 years) Irish working class immigrants in New York City. I'm always a little bit baffled by this but perhaps trade jobs still don't pay as well in Ireland as the US.

Anyway Woodlawn Heights is definitely unrepresentative because, despite the above, most new Irish immigrants these days are workers in tech, pharmaceuticals and finance whose careers are capped out in Ireland, just like immigrants from other wealthy European countries. They live in neighborhoods integrated with other yuppies so can't be teased out easily but presumably also vote like them (i.e., solidly Democratic).

[mileslunn]

We actually have an interesting data point for Irish immigrants: Woodlawn Heights, a predominantly Irish working-class neighbourhood in the Bronx, which is basically the last ethnic enclave in the US with a sizeable number of Irish-born residents. It narrowly voted for Biden and Clinton. Of course this represents a certain type of Irish immigration, which continued in some numbers until surprisingly recently, because Ireland was quite poor by Western European standards until the 1990s. I wouldn't be surprised if the character of Irish immigration has changed a fair bit in the last couple of decades though, with most now being indistinguishable from the standard highly-educated, professional, very Democratic Western European immigrant to the US.

Even now you meet a surprising number of new (arrived within the last 5-10 years) Irish working class immigrants in New York City. I'm always a little bit baffled by this but perhaps trade jobs still don't pay as well in Ireland as the US.

Anyway Woodlawn Heights is definitely unrepresentative because, despite the above, most new Irish immigrants these days are workers in tech, pharmaceuticals and finance whose careers are capped out in Ireland, just like immigrants from other wealthy European countries. They live in neighborhoods integrated with other yuppies so can't be teased out easily but presumably also vote like them (i.e., solidly Democratic).

I know Canada and Australia have a lot of young Irish in service sector, but most are there on working holiday visas (which US doesn't have) and are not citizens so cannot vote.  But as for working class Irish, probably some but kind of surprised many.  After all as an EU member they can move to any of the 27 member states and despite Brexit can still move to UK as free mobility of labor between Ireland & UK comes from common travel area which predates either joining EU (UK ended free mobility with all other EU members except Ireland).  I would think with free mobility of labor in EU, that would dramatically cut number wanting to move to US as already multiple countries to choose from and don't need a visa or work permit.

As mentioned those coming from Europe to US nowadays probably mostly high income, high skilled looking for jobs with pay not available in Europe.  Now for Russians, Ukrainians, and Balkans different story as there are not EU members so I could see US being more attractive.

[King of Kensington]

I think the last wave of working class Irish was in the 1980s and 1990s.  They went mostly to NYC.  I'm not sure if even Boston has significant numbers of Irish immigrants, I don't think it has an equivalent to the Bronx-Yonkers enclave.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I don't think there's enough info to track this. There's not been a lot of European immigration to America in recent decades.

As far as (White) Canadian immigrants? Well, I don't know. Unless they speak with a really stereotypical accent, are French-Canadian, or mention that they're Canadian, most Americans would think that they're just another American. For example, there's a news anchor here in NYC on the channel NY1 that is Canadian (Pat Kiernan), and honestly, I wouldn't have known until stumbling on his Wikipedia page a few months ago. He's a naturalized American. He has also appeared in some movies and TV shows (usually as himself, lol).

Generally, though, the few White Canadians that do move to the US are usually right-wingers (Gavin McInnes types unfortunately) or retirees and snowbirds (to Florida and Arizona mainly), so I would imagine that they lean Republican. Most White Canadians who are left-wing don't move to the US unless it's for a job (and usually it's a temporary one).

White Canadian actors and celebrities that move to the US, though, do seem to be solidly left-wing overall. So people like Ryan Reynolds, Cobie Smulders, Will Arnett, Catherine O'Hara, etc. are all left-wing and also naturalized Americans.