How did Black immigrants to US vote?

[mileslunn]

We know African-Americans go massively Democrat, usually over 90%, but wondering if Black immigrants be it Jamaicans, Haitians or those from Sub-Saharan Africa vote as massively Democrat as African-Americans or does GOP do slightly better.  I know Democrats win this cohort, but wondering if vote like Black Americans where GOP struggles to get even 10% or more like Black British where Conservatives usually get around 20% but still go heavily Labour?

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Afro-Caribbean neighborhoods in NYC vote at effectively comparable margins to Black voters as a whole. African immigrant neighborhoods are rarer as African immigrants are typically highly educated and high income and thus more likely to live in racially mixed or heavily white areas, but as an example Little Ethiopia in LA voted approximately 90/10 for Biden and swung toward Trump by less than surrounding areas. Le petit Sénégal in Manhattan was about 95/5 for Biden and saw barely any movement toward Trump, unlike Afro-Caribbean areas further north. The Cedar-Riverside area in Minneapolis, which is home to a lot of Somali immigrants, voted around 90/10 for Biden and saw a swing toward the Democrats from 2016.

In general the voting patterns between ADOS, Afro-Caribbean, and African immigrants voters are fairly similar but there’s countervailing trends, partially caused by different education and income levels.

African immigrants and their children are almost certainly more R than ADOS or Afro-Caribbeans. If I had to guess, I’d say they vote similarly to their Asian counterparts (SEA or Nepali/Bhutanese refugees for Somalis, H-1B wave Chinese and Indians for Nigerians).

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Slightly more republican than hispanics, although this demographic is trending red pretty fast. A lot of their kids are really succesful, because they tend to be very wealthy and benefit from affirmative action as a tailwind boost. Most of these voters live in south Florida if we are talking about their populations within competitve states.

[mileslunn]

Slightly more republican than hispanics, although this demographic is trending red pretty fast. A lot of their kids are really succesful, because they tend to be very wealthy and benefit from affirmative action as a tailwind boost. Most of these voters live in south Florida if we are talking about their populations within competitve states.

Interesting as I know South Florida has large Haitian community but thought a lot were in northern parts of Miami-Dade County and central parts of Broward County which went heavily Democrat.  But would make sense GOP would do better amongst them than African-Americans in general.  I kind of thought would vote more like Black British or Black Canadians where Conservatives do poorly, but not as bad as GOP does.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Slightly more republican than hispanics, although this demographic is trending red pretty fast. A lot of their kids are really succesful, because they tend to be very wealthy and benefit from affirmative action as a tailwind boost. Most of these voters live in south Florida if we are talking about their populations within competitve states.

^ this would also make them more R than Asians as a whole, and definitely more R than I would’ve guessed. My completely unsubstantiated guess would’ve been 70-30 or maybe even 65-35. Sociologically non-ADOS Black Americans are similar to Asian Americans, and I would expect that to be reflected in how they vote.

[ottermax]

Black immigrants are quite widespread throughout the USA, and I actually believe the largest concentrations are in NYC, DC, Houston, and South Florida.

Many black immigrants are more educated and higher income, which is actually a group trending towards the Democratic party. It also doesn't hurt Democrats that the most prominent black figures in the party are actually children of black immigrants.

Arguably black immigrants vote as Democratic as their American-born counterparts, but I'm sure there are some Republicans who are of the evangelical or pro-business side, but they are as rare as they would be in non-immigrant voters.

Finally, it's almost impossible to get hard evidence on this because most black immigrants move to areas with existing black communities, so we cannot get precinct level data to see any trends. Even in a place like South Florida it is quite difficult to know if the swings towards Republicans are actually persuasion or simply drops in turnout - black voting areas were the most resilient to the red wave in 2022 though!

[David Hume]

Slightly more republican than hispanics, although this demographic is trending red pretty fast. A lot of their kids are really succesful, because they tend to be very wealthy and benefit from affirmative action as a tailwind boost. Most of these voters live in south Florida if we are talking about their populations within competitve states.

^ this would also make them more R than Asians as a whole, and definitely more R than I would’ve guessed. My completely unsubstantiated guess would’ve been 70-30 or maybe even 65-35. Sociologically non-ADOS Black Americans are similar to Asian Americans, and I would expect that to be reflected in how they vote.

I think they vote to the left of Asians, since they are the main beneficiaries of Affirmative Action, while Asians are the main victims.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Slightly more republican than hispanics, although this demographic is trending red pretty fast. A lot of their kids are really succesful, because they tend to be very wealthy and benefit from affirmative action as a tailwind boost. Most of these voters live in south Florida if we are talking about their populations within competitve states.

^ this would also make them more R than Asians as a whole, and definitely more R than I would’ve guessed. My completely unsubstantiated guess would’ve been 70-30 or maybe even 65-35. Sociologically non-ADOS Black Americans are similar to Asian Americans, and I would expect that to be reflected in how they vote.

I think they vote to the left of Asians, since they are the main beneficiaries of Affirmative Action, while Asians are the main victims.

I agree but I don’t think it has much to do with affirmative action. It’s virtually impossible to say how Black immigrants vote, since it’s basically impossible to separate Black immigrants from non-ADOS Black voters in general, and as ottermax said we can’t easily determine how non-ADOS Black groups vote using precinct-level data outside of a limited number of ethnic enclaves.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I would say about the same margin, give or take.

For example, in NYC, neighborhoods with a majority Black Caribbean population (both immigrants and children/grandchildren of immigrants) vote Democratic by usually the exact same margin as neighborhoods with a majority "ADOS" Black population.

The Black African population seems to be slightly more Republican but still overwhelmingly D.

I think that these trends hold true for the rest of the country, though outside of big cities (and some surrounding suburbs), the non-ADOS Black population is very small.

[King of Kensington]

It's not even that easy to distinguish the Southern-descended and West Indian-descended Black community in NYC.  There was actually a pretty sizeable West Indian community early on.   Harlem a century ago was a mix of both.  A lot of famous Black New Yorkers - Harry Belafonte and Colin Powell for example - were of Caribbean parentage.  Plus it seems only the first generation tells the Census Bureau they're West Indian.

[wnwnwn]

More republican than 'old-stock-african-americans'/'ADOAS', at least including afrolatinos (which includes afrocubanos).

[King of Kensington]

You can get birthplaces for Black populations for several (but not all) states here:

https://depts.washington.edu/moving1/NewYork.shtml

https://depts.washington.edu/moving1/Massachusetts.shtml

https://depts.washington.edu/moving1/Florida.shtml

https://depts.washington.edu/moving1/California.shtml

[King of Kensington]

New York

Jamaica 226,898
Haiti 126,572
Trinidad and Tobago 73,294
Guyana 60,896
Ghana 35,838
Nigeria 34,671
Barbados 25,836
Grenada 24,732
Africa, ns/nec 14,325
Western Africa, ns 11,875
St. Vincent 13,274
St. Lucia 9,612
West Indies, ns 8,919
Antigua-Barbuda 7,648
Senegal 7,104
Ethiopia 7,008
Caribbean, ns 5,239

[Progressive Pessimist]

I anecdotally know one, she is a hardcore Democrat and dating my uncle who is a stubborn Republican. I don't know how it works.