Communities along Canadian/US border

[mileslunn]

While different countries, sharing same language asides Quebec and in some areas even many having family on both side interesting to compare how similar patterns are.  Seems a lot are but a few are different.

Alaska - Sparsely populated so bad comparison although Hyder and Stewart somewhat similar as Hyder usually goes around 60% Republican while Stewart, BC around 60% Conservative despite being in an NDP riding. 

Washington - Point Roberts is quite heavily Democrat, even more so than Tsswwassen which is more a typical middle class suburb.  Blaine leans Democrat but GOP and Conservative vote share on either side similar.  As heading further east, both get into Bible Belt with large Dutch Reformed population however GOP runs up bigger margins in Lynden and Sumas than Conservatives get in Abbotsford, Langley or Chilliwack but 20 years ago was similar but due to high prices in Vancouver, more middle class families have moved out which you haven't seen on US side.  Interior is largely Conservative on Canadian side and GOP on US side but some NDP pockets like Grand Forks, Castlegar, and Trail on Canadian side and recreational areas on US side but none of those have an actual border crossing.  Communities with border crossings are mostly Conservative/GOP

Idaho - Staunchly GOP in Boundary County while Canadian side goes Conservative but not as heavily.

Montana - Staunchly Conservative all areas on Canadian side asides from Waterton Parks where somewhat more competitive.  US side solidly GOP outside areas where Native Americans are majority, but Democrats ahead or competitive in areas with large Native American populations

North Dakota - Also solidly Conservative on Canadian side while solidly GOP on American side except in areas with large Native American population

Minnesota - Solidly conservative in areas in Manitoba, but Liberal/NDP once cross over in Ontario although Conservatives are making gains there but still haven't flipped yet.  Areas that border Manitoba mostly GOP, Northwest Angle one area north of 49th parallel not in Alaska solidly GOP however Kittson County was an Obama-Trump one.  Koochiching County and International Falls also an Obama-Trump but counties further east still Democrat.  St. Louis County though Trump would have narrowly won if you removed Duluth as Duluth has not swung like other parts of Iron Range.  Lake County narrowly Democrat but swinging GOP.  Cook County however being more based on tourism and less mining and forestry has become more solidly Democrat, it voted for Bush in 2000 while Biden got over 2/3 of vote in 2020.

Michigan: Sault Ste. Marie on Canadian side is mixed as NDP, Conservatives, and Liberals have all won it at various times.  Conservative vote can be as low as 20% in bad elections, but as high as 40% in good ones.  Chippewa County last went Democrat in 1996 but Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan did go for Obama both times before going for Trump both times despite McCain and Romney winning county.  St. Clair County, Michigan and Sarnia-Lambton on Canadian side used to be bellwethers but both being white working class have swung rightward and now solidly Conservative/GOP.  Biden barely won Port Huron but lost badly rest of county.  Windsor mostly NDP, sometimes Liberal, but never Conservative federally although Doug Ford won Windsor-Tecumseh and that riding is being targeted by federal Conservatives.  Wayne County sees GOP do somewhat worse than Conservatives do in Essex County on Canadian side, but Essex County has lots of rural areas while Wayne County is urban/suburban very little rural.  Also Detroit goes 95% Democrat due to being over 80% African-American while nowhere in Canada sees that.

New York - Erie County is fairly Democrat but GOP usually gets over 40%.  Buffalo solidly Democrat but Grand Island leans GOP.  Fort Erie on Canadian side usually Conservative but only plurality not majority.  Niagara County used to go Democrat but swung GOP although Biden did win Niagara Falls but Lewiston is GOP.  Riding of Niagara Falls on Canadian side has gone Conservative in every race since 2004 but only in 2011 did they get over 50% of popular vote.  Further east, Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands & Rideau Lakes as well as Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry are some of the safest Conservative ridings in Ontario where usually get north of 50% even in bad elections.  Jefferson County GOP, but St. Lawrence County an Obama-Trump one.  In fact both St. Lawrence County and Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry once liberal now conservative but Canadian side swung right in early 2000s while US one was only under Trump so more recent.  Quebec side by contrast is BQ/Liberal but Tories very weak while US side ancestral Democrat as Obama got over 60% but under Trump evenly split was Franklin County narrowly GOP and Clinton County narrowly Democrat

Vermont - Despite Vermont being one of the bluest states and many people living in border communities of French-Canadian ancestry and many even have dual citizenship as some mothers go across border to give birth due to closest hospital is most Republican part of state.  Trump won all but one border town whereas on Canadian side all Liberal/BQ.  Yes different language, but a lot living on border I believe are bilingual as large Anglophone population on Canadian side and many as mentioned on border French-Canadian descent.

New Hampshire - Coos County another Obama-Trump county but on Canadian side it is Appalaches-Chaudiere region which is one part of Quebec that votes Conservative and like New Hampshire in past has a very strong libertarian bent

Maine - Most of border communities were Obama-Trump ones.  Even Madawaska which is 80% French speaking barely went for Biden while Obama got over 70%.  On Canadian side, western part still in Chaudiere-Appalaches but in Bas-Saint Laurent Conservative support falls off and mostly BQ although border area heavily forested and sparsely populated on both sides.  Madawaska-Restigouche mostly Liberal due to French language but sometimes goes Conservative.  Funnily enough since 2010 has moved in opposite direction as when Conservatives won riding in 2011, Obama won big in border areas in 2012.  In 2015 swung massively Liberal and stayed there whereas since 2016 areas on American side swung towards Trump.  The English speaking parts much like Maine side are solidly Conservative.

So doing comparisons seems lots of similarities.  Does seem Canadian areas near border are more Conservative on balance than country as whole.  On other hand areas along US border mostly GOP except in more urban areas but East/West split as West always solidly GOP, but many East of Lake of the Woods went for Obama both times and then Trump both times.

Any thoughts if coincidence or is some influence as would probably listen to same radio stations and areas on American side may get Canadian news channels.  In Quebec and New Brunswick many families have members on both sides.

[It’s so Joever]

Why is Kootenay West so NDP anyways?

[mileslunn]

Why is Kootenay West so NDP anyways?

Its a combination of five communities

1.  Grand Forks - Large Dhuokobor community which are a communal pacifist group that immigrated from Imperial Russia in late 1800s but their communal pacifist lifestyle makes them left wing.

2.  Castlegar - A mix of Dhuokobors but also strong union movement

3.  Rossland - Like popular tourist areas and ski resorts in US which vote heavily Democrat

4.  Trail - White working class but had a strong militant union and union still quite strong so hasn't swung right like many other working class areas.  It is kind of like Butte, Montana which still goes Democrat. 

5.  Nelson & Slocan Valley - popular place for Draft Dodgers in 60s to settle so has strong counterculture vibe and full of many ex hippies.  It is kind of like Arcadia, California only inland instead of coastal.  Many people in Nelson & Slocan Valley are born in US or have American born parents.  Around 50,000 Draft Dodgers during Vietnam war moved to Canada to avoid going to Vietnam and this was a popular place for many to settle.

Once you get west of Grand Forks and east of Nelson it goes Conservative again.