Does the northeast swing left again?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think an underdiscussed aspect of the 2020 election was how almost all of the northeast swung decently left, the main exceptions being some heavily non-white parts of certain cities. The swing seemed to come from the fact the northeast generally has good college attainment and is secular.

The 2020 swing was particularly notable because many of these communities were places Turmp made big gains in in 2016.

Does Biden get another favorable swing out of the region? Will Trump claw back? Will it be a mixed bag or stagnant?

For the sake of this question, I'm defining the "northeast" as pretty generously as everything from Maine to metro DC including upstate NY and the eastern half of PA.

[dw93]

I think it'll stagnate on balance. Trump was an unknown quantity when it trended to him in 2016, once people saw him in action, ME 2nd aside, it trended hard left. While Biden hasn't done anything to cause it to trend left, Trump isn't the unknown quantity he was in 2016 and on the whole hasn't done himself any favors.

[mjba257]

NH tends to swing against incumbents, so you may see it swing rightward. Also an important factor is RFK and third parties. ME is very favorable to third parties and with RCV, that could be a state RFK does really well in. Left wing third parties also tend to do decently in VT, MA, and RI, so that could cut into Biden's margin there. I'd also watch NY and NJ, two states that have seen some *light* rightward shifts recently.

Now, if Nikki Haley ends up the nominee due to Trump being made ineligible, and lets say she picks Sununu as her running mate, absolutely, the Northeast swings heavily rightward. She likely flips NH, possibly ME, and could even put NJ into play if everything goes perfect for her.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think it does with the exceptions of New Jersey and New York, whose swings right are much smaller than some seem to anticipate, if you ask me.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Maine will probably swing R and NH probably could swing either direction. Massachusetts,Vermont, and Rhode Island will stagnate. Connecticut swings towards Biden.

[Mr. Smith]

yes.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Probably not due to third parties, but it could if the election were head to head.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Definitely- VT, NH, MA
Not sure- ME, CT, RI
No way- NJ, NY
I will say the Not sure states should at least Trend Democratic, even if they don't swing that way

[ProgressiveModerate]

Definitely- VT, NH, MA
Not sure- ME, CT, RI
No way- NJ, NY
I will say the Not sure states should at least Trend Democratic, even if they don't swing that way

Interesting.

I largely agree, though I would have CT in the probably swings to Biden category; full of college educated northeastern suburbs which is like the stereotype of his base.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

I think an underdiscussed aspect of the 2020 election was how almost all of the northeast swung decently left, the main exceptions being some heavily non-white parts of certain cities. The swing seemed to come from the fact the northeast generally has good college attainment and is secular.

The 2020 swing was particularly notable because many of these communities were places Turmp made big gains in in 2016.

Does Biden get another favorable swing out of the region? Will Trump claw back? Will it be a mixed bag or stagnant?

For the sake of this question, I'm defining the "northeast" as pretty generously as everything from Maine to metro DC including upstate NY and the eastern half of PA.

PA and NH might but the rest no.

[Schiff for Senate]

NH tends to swing against incumbents, so you may see it swing rightward. Also an important factor is RFK and third parties. ME is very favorable to third parties and with RCV, that could be a state RFK does really well in. Left wing third parties also tend to do decently in VT, MA, and RI, so that could cut into Biden's margin there. I'd also watch NY and NJ, two states that have seen some *light* rightward shifts recently.

Now, if Nikki Haley ends up the nominee due to Trump being made ineligible, and lets say she picks Sununu as her running mate, absolutely, the Northeast swings heavily rightward. She likely flips NH, possibly ME, and could even put NJ into play if everything goes perfect for her.

I agree with this, especially the points on NH and NY made in the first paragraph. RFK Jr. is a bit of a wild card; it's true that independents fare well in New England but idk if he is really the right fit for the area (although then again, the Kennedy last name should be enough to earn him quite a bit in MA at least).

I do think you're overestimating the potency of a Haley ticket, even if her running mate's Sununu (which I don't think it would be; she'd probably choose someone more Trumpish instead of doubling down). It'd flip NH, sure, but ME flipping is too much of a stretch, and even with its rightward trends, NJ is far too blue to be competitive even under the best circumstances.

[Schiff for Senate]

Definitely- VT, NH, MA
Not sure- ME, CT, RI
No way- NJ, NY
I will say the Not sure states should at least Trend Democratic, even if they don't swing that way

Eh, idk. Sheerly by virtue of his last name RFK Jr. may do particularly well in MA, and that would probably cut into the Democratic share. At the very least asserting that MA will "definitely" swing left is definitely a huge stretch.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Right now I think Maine, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, New Jersey, and Delaware swing to the right. New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Maryland swing to the left. I wonder if Jan 6 will cause D.C to vote further to the left.

[S019]

PA, NY, and ME seem likely to swing right, the rest I think should mostly be stagnant, could swing left or right a bit. Not really sure why so many people expect NJ to swing right.

[NOVA Green]

Hmmm... interesting question.

Using your definition of the NE to include all of New England, NY including upstate, SE PA, plus the much of the rest of Mid-Atlantic States, I am not convinced (at this time) that there will be a significant leftward shift throughout these areas.

Much of the '16 > '20 DEM swing within the region had to do with 3rd Party voters who basically broke heavily Biden in 2020.

Maine--- Was only (48-45) Clinton in '16 and went (53-44) Biden in '20.

Although Trump actually improved in places in Northern Maine, within the SE Coastal areas Biden generally not only sucked up all of the 3rd Party voters, but additionally appears to have flipped a decent chunk of Trump '16 voters.

Biden might likely be able to make some smaller inroads into the SE Coastal areas, but I suspect he won't be able to make much of a dent in Trump '20 numbers in Northern Maine, esp with the very strong French / French-Canadian ancestral voting block, where Obama did quite well in both elections.

New Hampshire

Similar deal as Maine, where basically Biden vacuumed up all of the 3rd Party voters plus flipped some Trump '16 voters.

This trend was most apparent in the heavily populated areas in SE NH.

Difficult to see how Trump reclaims the '16 Trump > '20 Biden cohort in that region post the Jan 6th Insurrection.

Vermont--- OK perhaps just skip this one since almost all of the '16 > '20 DEM swing were people who wrote in Bernie.

Difficult to see how Trump's floor could fall any lower in '24.

I guess the real question is could he fall below 30%??

Massachussetts --- Again Biden nets almost all of the 3rd Party votes plus flips some Trump '16 votes.

I could easily envision Trump '24 falling to barely over 30% post Jan 6th.

Rhode Island--- See Massachusetts.

Hell, even Washington County swung Left in 2020.

Sure I could potentially see Trump making some gains among Catholic voters here post Dobbs, but suspect the WASPs will offset and more than compensate for some losses elsewhere.

Obviously AA and Puerto Rican turnout and swings in Providence will be a factor in '24.

Connecticut---  It's difficult to remember the days of Yankee Republicans in this state, let alone in King Arthur's Court.

Not tons of 3rd Party votes in '16.

Still look at the "breadbasket" of voters in CT and Fairfield County is still king, representing 25% of the entire state's vote share...

Still one could roam around the entirety of the Southern CT coastline and not see good news coming Trump's way.

Hell, what's left of the PUB strongholds in the state, Litchfield and Windham counties represent a combined <10% of the state vote share.

New York--- s**t this is too big and complicated a state!

Let's face it, you got a huge chunk of the vote share in places in Upstate New York which honestly resemble more of a traditional "Rust Belt" type scene, you got all of the craziness in the NYC 'Burbs, plus you got the internal dynamics of NYC itself.

My gut says that in a state traditionally known for it's machine politics, exemplified in the Political Science classic Tammany Hall, it's all going to come out to turnout (TO).

Obviously if we were to somehow combine all of the regions in the OPs question, New York State would well outweigh all of New England combined.

Now, although I recognize that "Up-Ballot" voting is generally not a thing, I would imagine that the New York DEM party will invest heavily in grassroots organizing and fundraising in order to flip potentially (4-5) PUB US-House seats, which could in theory help Biden in terms of TO, especially with his current struggles with key segments of the DEM base (AA, Latinos, Young voters).

Dobbs likely less of an issue here since I believe reproductive rights are now codified in New York.

New Jersey...  See New York.

Potential for Biden to slip slightly here...

Bergen County is a relatively small % of the NJ TV vote share.

I suspect Biden will continue to perform relatively well in places close to metro Philly, although Gloucester County might well flip back from being a Trump '16 > Biden '20 County.

SE Pennsylvania--- Difficult to see Biden slipping here vs '20.

The obvious caveat will be TO in overwhelmingly DEM Philadelphia County.

Still, we know Biden is going to be "camping" in PA throughout the election season, and hell showing up at one of my Igglies games in October '24 would definitely be a plus!

Maryland--- Post Jan 6th insurrection gotta wonder if Trump will even scrape 30%.

Montgomery & Prince George's counties alone contain roughly 30% of the entire MD vote share.

These are not places where GVT workers are amused after 1/6.

Baltimore City is a bit of a trip as one of the most DEM largest cities in the USA, so obviously a significant drop in TO could move things around the margins.

Still, Baltimore County with roughly 400k voters is much larger and not going anywhere.

Again, this is the type of place where suburban voters are not amused by Trump's antics, not happy with Dobbs, not happy with attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 Presidential election at all.

DC---  Haven't thought much about this one.

Still would imagine post 1/6 it might shift Left, even if there is lower voter TO.

[TDAS04]

Rhode Island should swing left. It’s a swingy state that loves incumbents, somewhat like Hawaii.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Hmmm... interesting question.

Using your definition of the NE to include all of New England, NY including upstate, SE PA, plus the much of the rest of Mid-Atlantic States, I am not convinced (at this time) that there will be a significant leftward shift throughout these areas.

Much of the '16 > '20 DEM swing within the region had to do with 3rd Party voters who basically broke heavily Biden in 2020.

Maine--- Was only (48-45) Clinton in '16 and went (53-44) Biden in '20.

Although Trump actually improved in places in Northern Maine, within the SE Coastal areas Biden generally not only sucked up all of the 3rd Party voters, but additionally appears to have flipped a decent chunk of Trump '16 voters.

Biden might likely be able to make some smaller inroads into the SE Coastal areas, but I suspect he won't be able to make much of a dent in Trump '20 numbers in Northern Maine, esp with the very strong French / French-Canadian ancestral voting block, where Obama did quite well in both elections.

New Hampshire

Similar deal as Maine, where basically Biden vacuumed up all of the 3rd Party voters plus flipped some Trump '16 voters.

This trend was most apparent in the heavily populated areas in SE NH.

Difficult to see how Trump reclaims the '16 Trump > '20 Biden cohort in that region post the Jan 6th Insurrection.

Vermont--- OK perhaps just skip this one since almost all of the '16 > '20 DEM swing were people who wrote in Bernie.

Difficult to see how Trump's floor could fall any lower in '24.

I guess the real question is could he fall below 30%??

Massachussetts --- Again Biden nets almost all of the 3rd Party votes plus flips some Trump '16 votes.

I could easily envision Trump '24 falling to barely over 30% post Jan 6th.

Rhode Island--- See Massachusetts.

Hell, even Washington County swung Left in 2020.

Sure I could potentially see Trump making some gains among Catholic voters here post Dobbs, but suspect the WASPs will offset and more than compensate for some losses elsewhere.

Obviously AA and Puerto Rican turnout and swings in Providence will be a factor in '24.

Connecticut---  It's difficult to remember the days of Yankee Republicans in this state, let alone in King Arthur's Court.

Not tons of 3rd Party votes in '16.

Still look at the "breadbasket" of voters in CT and Fairfield County is still king, representing 25% of the entire state's vote share...

Still one could roam around the entirety of the Southern CT coastline and not see good news coming Trump's way.

Hell, what's left of the PUB strongholds in the state, Litchfield and Windham counties represent a combined <10% of the state vote share.

New York--- s**t this is too big and complicated a state!

Let's face it, you got a huge chunk of the vote share in places in Upstate New York which honestly resemble more of a traditional "Rust Belt" type scene, you got all of the craziness in the NYC 'Burbs, plus you got the internal dynamics of NYC itself.

My gut says that in a state traditionally known for it's machine politics, exemplified in the Political Science classic Tammany Hall, it's all going to come out to turnout (TO).

Obviously if we were to somehow combine all of the regions in the OPs question, New York State would well outweigh all of New England combined.

Now, although I recognize that "Up-Ballot" voting is generally not a thing, I would imagine that the New York DEM party will invest heavily in grassroots organizing and fundraising in order to flip potentially (4-5) PUB US-House seats, which could in theory help Biden in terms of TO, especially with his current struggles with key segments of the DEM base (AA, Latinos, Young voters).

Dobbs likely less of an issue here since I believe reproductive rights are now codified in New York.

New Jersey...  See New York.

Potential for Biden to slip slightly here...

Bergen County is a relatively small % of the NJ TV vote share.

I suspect Biden will continue to perform relatively well in places close to metro Philly, although Gloucester County might well flip back from being a Trump '16 > Biden '20 County.

SE Pennsylvania--- Difficult to see Biden slipping here vs '20.

The obvious caveat will be TO in overwhelmingly DEM Philadelphia County.

Still, we know Biden is going to be "camping" in PA throughout the election season, and hell showing up at one of my Igglies games in October '24 would definitely be a plus!

Maryland--- Post Jan 6th insurrection gotta wonder if Trump will even scrape 30%.

Montgomery & Prince George's counties alone contain roughly 30% of the entire MD vote share.

These are not places where GVT workers are amused after 1/6.

Baltimore City is a bit of a trip as one of the most DEM largest cities in the USA, so obviously a significant drop in TO could move things around the margins.

Still, Baltimore County with roughly 400k voters is much larger and not going anywhere.

Again, this is the type of place where suburban voters are not amused by Trump's antics, not happy with Dobbs, not happy with attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 Presidential election at all.

DC---  Haven't thought much about this one.

Still would imagine post 1/6 it might shift Left, even if there is lower voter TO.

LMAO you think almost every state will shift left because "muh Jan 6"

[NOVA Green]

Hmmm... interesting question.

Using your definition of the NE to include all of New England, NY including upstate, SE PA, plus the much of the rest of Mid-Atlantic States, I am not convinced (at this time) that there will be a significant leftward shift throughout these areas.

Much of the '16 > '20 DEM swing within the region had to do with 3rd Party voters who basically broke heavily Biden in 2020.

Maine--- Was only (48-45) Clinton in '16 and went (53-44) Biden in '20.

Although Trump actually improved in places in Northern Maine, within the SE Coastal areas Biden generally not only sucked up all of the 3rd Party voters, but additionally appears to have flipped a decent chunk of Trump '16 voters.

Biden might likely be able to make some smaller inroads into the SE Coastal areas, but I suspect he won't be able to make much of a dent in Trump '20 numbers in Northern Maine, esp with the very strong French / French-Canadian ancestral voting block, where Obama did quite well in both elections.

New Hampshire

Similar deal as Maine, where basically Biden vacuumed up all of the 3rd Party voters plus flipped some Trump '16 voters.

This trend was most apparent in the heavily populated areas in SE NH.

Difficult to see how Trump reclaims the '16 Trump > '20 Biden cohort in that region post the Jan 6th Insurrection.

Vermont--- OK perhaps just skip this one since almost all of the '16 > '20 DEM swing were people who wrote in Bernie.

Difficult to see how Trump's floor could fall any lower in '24.

I guess the real question is could he fall below 30%??

Massachussetts --- Again Biden nets almost all of the 3rd Party votes plus flips some Trump '16 votes.

I could easily envision Trump '24 falling to barely over 30% post Jan 6th.

Rhode Island--- See Massachusetts.

Hell, even Washington County swung Left in 2020.

Sure I could potentially see Trump making some gains among Catholic voters here post Dobbs, but suspect the WASPs will offset and more than compensate for some losses elsewhere.

Obviously AA and Puerto Rican turnout and swings in Providence will be a factor in '24.

Connecticut---  It's difficult to remember the days of Yankee Republicans in this state, let alone in King Arthur's Court.

Not tons of 3rd Party votes in '16.

Still look at the "breadbasket" of voters in CT and Fairfield County is still king, representing 25% of the entire state's vote share...

Still one could roam around the entirety of the Southern CT coastline and not see good news coming Trump's way.

Hell, what's left of the PUB strongholds in the state, Litchfield and Windham counties represent a combined <10% of the state vote share.

New York--- s**t this is too big and complicated a state!

Let's face it, you got a huge chunk of the vote share in places in Upstate New York which honestly resemble more of a traditional "Rust Belt" type scene, you got all of the craziness in the NYC 'Burbs, plus you got the internal dynamics of NYC itself.

My gut says that in a state traditionally known for it's machine politics, exemplified in the Political Science classic Tammany Hall, it's all going to come out to turnout (TO).

Obviously if we were to somehow combine all of the regions in the OPs question, New York State would well outweigh all of New England combined.

Now, although I recognize that "Up-Ballot" voting is generally not a thing, I would imagine that the New York DEM party will invest heavily in grassroots organizing and fundraising in order to flip potentially (4-5) PUB US-House seats, which could in theory help Biden in terms of TO, especially with his current struggles with key segments of the DEM base (AA, Latinos, Young voters).

Dobbs likely less of an issue here since I believe reproductive rights are now codified in New York.

New Jersey...  See New York.

Potential for Biden to slip slightly here...

Bergen County is a relatively small % of the NJ TV vote share.

I suspect Biden will continue to perform relatively well in places close to metro Philly, although Gloucester County might well flip back from being a Trump '16 > Biden '20 County.

SE Pennsylvania--- Difficult to see Biden slipping here vs '20.

The obvious caveat will be TO in overwhelmingly DEM Philadelphia County.

Still, we know Biden is going to be "camping" in PA throughout the election season, and hell showing up at one of my Igglies games in October '24 would definitely be a plus!

Maryland--- Post Jan 6th insurrection gotta wonder if Trump will even scrape 30%.

Montgomery & Prince George's counties alone contain roughly 30% of the entire MD vote share.

These are not places where GVT workers are amused after 1/6.

Baltimore City is a bit of a trip as one of the most DEM largest cities in the USA, so obviously a significant drop in TO could move things around the margins.

Still, Baltimore County with roughly 400k voters is much larger and not going anywhere.

Again, this is the type of place where suburban voters are not amused by Trump's antics, not happy with Dobbs, not happy with attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 Presidential election at all.

DC---  Haven't thought much about this one.

Still would imagine post 1/6 it might shift Left, even if there is lower voter TO.

LMAO you think almost every state will shift left because "muh Jan 6"

Lazy response...

Believe I only mentioned NH and MD and the Jan 6th insurrection???

Sorry you are an Australian Trump loving fan, but please do NOT put words in my mouth to cover up your own opinions.

I am so tired of discussing politics with 20-30 year old kids on the internet, so please post something reasonable or get back under the bridge.

[Vice President Christian Man]

If any state swings left it's Hawaii. Trump's likely to win PA and may be the favorite to win ME come election day. NH might be close too given how it was in 2016.

[GregTheGreat657]

Not as a whole, no. Parts of it could, however, namely wealthy suburbs. However, areas with an anti-incumbent streak such as New Hampshire will likely swing against Biden.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not as a whole, no. Parts of it could, however, namely wealthy suburbs. However, areas with an anti-incumbent streak such as New Hampshire will likely swing against Biden.

Does NH really have an anti-incumbent streak. With Presidential elections, you’re dealing with such a small “n” it seems really hard to make that conclusion. Also it swing towards Clinton in 96 and it basically swung in line with the nation in 2012; Romney underperformed expectations in NH.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

snip.

LMAO you think almost every state will shift left because "muh Jan 6"

Lazy response...

Believe I only mentioned NH and MD and the Jan 6th insurrection???

Sorry you are an Australian Trump loving fan, but please do NOT put words in my mouth to cover up your own opinions.

I am so tired of discussing politics with 20-30 year old kids on the internet, so please post something reasonable or get back under the bridge.

LOL don't overestimate my age, I just turned 18 haha

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Definitely- VT, NH, MA
Not sure- ME, CT, RI
No way- NJ, NY
I will say the Not sure states should at least Trend Democratic, even if they don't swing that way

Eh, idk. Sheerly by virtue of his last name RFK Jr. may do particularly well in MA, and that would probably cut into the Democratic share. At the very least asserting that MA will "definitely" swing left is definitely a huge stretch.

MA is one of the most educated states in the nation and is extremely secular. Republicans are more evangelical nannys than they've ever been(and no, Trump is not immune to the fallout from that)

[DPKdebator]

Northern New England might swing left again due to abortion, but if RFK Jr. stays around he could sap some votes from Biden in southern New England and NY/NJ.

[NOVA Green]

snip.

LMAO you think almost every state will shift left because "muh Jan 6"

Lazy response...

Believe I only mentioned NH and MD and the Jan 6th insurrection???

Sorry you are an Australian Trump loving fan, but please do NOT put words in my mouth to cover up your own opinions.

I am so tired of discussing politics with 20-30 year old kids on the internet, so please post something reasonable or get back under the bridge.

LOL don't overestimate my age, I just turned 18 haha

My sincere and honest apologies....

For awhile Atlas had a ban against posters <18 y.o joining the Forum (A policy I disagreed with at the time, since after all many of us posters including myself came of age eating up election statistics, history, and international politics, etc...).

Twas a bit rude of me to put words in your mouth making assumptions about your age, opinions of Trump, etc...

I might add that for an Australian with so many posts at such a young precocious age it does appear you might had developed a very unusual talent for the intricacies of US Elections.

Also, been checking out some of your various random posts and sounds like you have a very interesting a complex background.

I still stand by the "lazy response" part, simply because you took an entire detailed response that I made involving a bit of time and thought and used a Jan 6th throwaway line, instead of making a thoughtful post of your own.

pls respond back to my detailed post with counterarguments, citing sources, tossing out maps, etc... and then we are cool my side regarding the "lazy post" comment.

Naturally like many of us we might enjoy a basic minimum 3 page double spaced intro to poly-sci paper involving a basic "compare and contrast" style narrative, integrating social demographics to help explain a particular story within a particular place which might be significant in context of the OPs original question.