Why did Hillsborough and Rockingham counties, New Hampshire swing towards Bush?

[darklordoftech]

Gore won Manchester in 2000, but Bush won it in 2004. Does anyone know why?

[DPKdebator]

Southern New Hampshire is an extension of southern New England culturally.  It comprises the northern reaches of Greater Boston, and it has a lot of white ethnics (Irish and French Canadian are more dispersed throughout NH, but most of the Italians live in the southeastern part) and MA transplants. A lot of people there commute to Boston and its environs for work, and it's part of the Boston media market. In the other 21st century presidential elections, towns in Hillsborough and Rockingham Counties have followed similar trendlines as demographically similar places in eastern MA (of course from a more GOP-friendly baseline). Meanwhile, western NH has followed a similar trajectory to Vermont and central/northern NH has similarities with Maine beyond the Portland area.

[Joe McCarthy Was Right]

The 2004 election was a continuation of Yankees trending Democrat but white ethnics trending Republican. That has been going on since 1964.

[Tintrlvr]

Hillsborough and Rockingham Counties are the Staten Island of Boston: Defined entirely by antipathy to Massachusetts. Having an anti-Kerry swing is not surprising at all in that context.

[Smash255]

What was mentioned above makes sense to a point, and can help explain some of the changes within N.H. but don't forget the national PV as a whole swung about 3 points (2.98) to Bush from 2000 to 2004.  While both counties swung towards Bush, they only swung about 1 point each, and when compared to the national average actually trended almost 2 points Democratic.