Republican suburbs

[Roll Roons]

Gloucester County, New Jersey - Unlike other Philadelphia suburbs it has swung towards Trump as won it in 2016 although flipped back to Biden, but still much more competitive than other Philly area suburbs.

South Jersey suburbs are more Italian and more WWC than the Philadelphia suburbs in PA.

But how about Burlington and Camden Counties as Biden won those by pretty solid margins.  Camden has large Black and Hispanic but Burlington county is mostly white but some minorities but almost same as Gloucester county, although perhaps more white collar types like Philly suburbs in PA.

Andy Kim is from Burlington and Steve Sweeney is from Gloucester. I feel like that should say it all about the Democratic bases in those two counties.

[UWS]

St. Petersburg area are Republican suburbs

[Smash255]

Anyone know what is happening with Anoka County which seems stuck in neutral unlike Dakota and Washington counties which have swung Democrat or Scott and Carver where GOP margins cut and Biden won most suburban municipalities but lost bad in rural parts?  If white working class, it hasn't swung away from Democrats like Macomb County, just been static.

Lake County, Ohio I am guessing is white working class like Macomb County as was a bellwether pre Trump, now fairly solidly GOP.

Eastern suburbs of Baltimore County also no answer on and that I find puzzling as large African-American population so must mean whites there go massively GOP which is not typical for suburbs even in South unless a smaller city like say Birmingham, Alabama, so any reason for that.

For the above bolded section, education probably is likely a key factor.   Macomb is the least college educated of the above mentioned counties (26.7% have a Bachelor's), followed by Anoka, (31.5%).   All the others you mentioned are over 40% having at least a Bachelor's with Carver just under 50%.   The median income in Macomb is also significantly lower than the others

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Anyone know what is happening with Anoka County which seems stuck in neutral unlike Dakota and Washington counties which have swung Democrat or Scott and Carver where GOP margins cut and Biden won most suburban municipalities but lost bad in rural parts?  If white working class, it hasn't swung away from Democrats like Macomb County, just been static.

Anoka County is kind of a Frankenstein of a combination of various types of areas that despite being close in geographic proximity don't really have a lot in common. The panhandle that reaches down to Minneapolis is pretty Democratic, Columbia Heights is pretty much indistinguishable from Northeast Minneapolis and Fridley and Spring Lake Park look like the inner suburbs in the same area like Mounds View. Anoka proper, Coon Rapids, and Blaine and the area around that layer is much more typical middle class suburbs, but also not very educated, but it's not very Trumpy either, this is a swing area and pretty much always has been for a very long time, the state legislative seats in this area are known for swinging back and forth every time there's a wave. But anywhere north of that is still pretty rural/exurban and votes exactly like that. All these factors kind of cancel each other out and make it close to 50/50, but because the exurban areas are more populated than the panhandle with a slight R-tilt. It does seem to be slowly shifting into a Tilt-D county, but not there yet. If Coon Rapids and Blaine swung as hard against the Republicans as suburbs on the southern end did, it would be there, but as I said, these isn't an area that's either particularly prone to MAGA or repulsed by it.

Dakota and Washington are different because they're much more educated in the suburban areas and thus under Trump the Rs absolutely collapsed there outside of the exurban areas which are pretty outvoted. Washington can't develop a lot just because of geography and while the southern half of Dakota County is still pretty rural, it's pretty minor in terms of the population of the entire county. Also the southwest corner is actually more of the Northfield area instead of Twin Cities exurbs, it includes a sliver of Northfield which is very D and the townships around it are Republican but not as Republican as you'd expect because Northfield still clearly has some influence. So the Republicans just don't have anywhere they can drive up vote totals from. Even Lakeville is trending D now.

[mileslunn]

St. Petersburg area are Republican suburbs

That is true but trend pretty static.  Pinellas County is usually pretty close to split down middle with St. Petersburg going Democrat as well as Gulfport but most of the rest of the county Republican but not by a large margin and GOP levels of support pretty flat.  Northern Tampa suburbs much more dramatic swing to right.

[mileslunn]

Wondering what reason is for Jefferson county, Missouri going from a bellwether to 2/3 GOP.  Not surprised has swung GOP but swing seems more typical of a rural county not suburban/exurban one.  Kenosha and Racine also Obama-Trump but are those considered suburbs or small urban ones of their own right?  Finally what is reason for suburbs in eastern part of Baltimore county seeing racial polarization you see in Deep South not Mid Atlantic?

[kwabbit]

Wondering what reason is for Jefferson county, Missouri going from a bellwether to 2/3 GOP.  Not surprised has swung GOP but swing seems more typical of a rural county not suburban/exurban one.  Kenosha and Racine also Obama-Trump but are those considered suburbs or small urban ones of their own right?  Finally what is reason for suburbs in eastern part of Baltimore county seeing racial polarization you see in Deep South not Mid Atlantic?

The answer for basically every one of these is educational attainment. Maybe there’s a sprinkling of ancestry or religion as to why some areas swung more than others given an equal college ed%, but the R^2 would be like .85. If you have redistricter, that will give you answers about ancestry and education. If not I recommend going to the census bureau and searching the ACS data for a county.

[King of Kensington]

What's the tipping point for a generally R-leaning to a generally D-leaning county in terms of college graduate share? 

[mileslunn]

Eastern Baltimore county still hasn't been answered so curious on that.  I am guessing Kenosha & Racine counties probably white working class.  Jefferson County, Missouri probably same but size of swing is massive there so is it more rural as I would think would see a swing more like Macomb County, Michigan, not as dramatic as did and GOP ahead but not 2/3.  But if more rural like say Beaver County, Pennsylvania than makes sense as it includes some suburbs but has large rural aspect.

[kwabbit]

Eastern Baltimore county still hasn't been answered so curious on that.  I am guessing Kenosha & Racine counties probably white working class.  Jefferson County, Missouri probably same but size of swing is massive there so is it more rural as I would think would see a swing more like Macomb County, Michigan, not as dramatic as did and GOP ahead but not 2/3.  But if more rural like say Beaver County, Pennsylvania than makes sense as it includes some suburbs but has large rural aspect.

This eastern segment of Baltimore County that you were referring to was 50-47 Obama then 56-41 Trump. Bachelor attainment is 16%. Again, it's just education rate. This part of Baltimore County is probably the most downtrodden suburb of ACELA. Also of note for this area is that German, American, and Polish ancestry predominates. This is reflective of immigration from the Midwest/Appalachia which is part of the area's character. Not that the ancestry itself is causing the swings, but it's another peculiarity.

Jefferson County, Missouri is 22% Bachelor Attainment. Again very low. Democrats also had some ancestral strength here; the evaporation of that only magnified the swing. As you said, it is more exurban so the lack of density is also a factor.

Racine is just a WWC suburb of Milwaukee/separate small city. 27% Bachelor Attainment. 2012 to 2020 swing is typical in light of that.

Kenosha is slightly different. Also kind of a suburb but of its own thing. 29% Bachelor Attainment, so not super low. Definitely the erosion of ancestral strength combined with some effects of the riots there pushed it in Trump's direction.

[mileslunn]

Since low numbers of college degrees seems to be common threat for suburbs swinging GOP, does that mean most suburbs above national average as I am pretty sure there are some other suburbs voting Democrat that still have low college attainment.  Some are ones with large minority populations where Democrats still do well even amongst those without a college degree.  This is especially true with African-Americans although amongst Asians and Latinos Democrats may be winning those without college degree, but that cohort swung towards Trump in 2020.  So wondering how many majority white (over 70% white) where college attainment below national average but Democrats still winning there out there?