Republican suburbs

[mileslunn]

Big story in 2020 was suburbs swinging towards Democrats however below are a few that have bucked the trend.  Note I excluded ones GOP won but trending Democrat as 20 or 30 point swings rarely happen in one election, especially nowadays.  So Forsyth, Hall, and Cherokee counties in Georgia may have gone solidly for Trump, but GOP margins much lower than a decade ago even if strong.  WOW counties in Wisconsin or collar counties of Indianapolis other examples that go GOP still but margins have tightened.  Below are list of ones that are swinging GOP or stuck in neutral

Rockwall County, Texas - Unlike other Dallas suburbs this still went over 2/3 for Trump so any reason for that?

Anoka County, Minnesota - Since 2000 it has gone GOP by low single digits.  True Biden won most of the suburban portions and only lost the northern suburbs and lost badly in rural parts.

Clay & Platte Counties, Missouri - They too have been stuck with GOP winning by single digits since 2000 whereas Johnson County on Kansas side was over 60% GOP under Bush, but Biden won it in 2020.

St. Charles County, Missouri - Even though hasn't swung right, it hasn't swung to degree St. Louis County has.

Jefferson County, Missouri - Yes its more exurban than suburban but prior to 2012 it was a bellwether county, now GOP gets around 2/3

Kenosha & Racine counties - Not sure if they are considered suburbs or Milwaukee or Chicago or their own metro areas but voted for Obama both times then Trump both times.

Madison County, Illinois - Used to be swing, now fairly solidly GOP although not quite to extent Jefferson County, Missouri

Macomb County, Michigan - Notwithstanding famous Reagan Democrats here it went for Obama both times but then Trump both times.  And with growing African-American population, Trump likely got around 60% of white vote there whereas in Oakland County next door swung in opposite direction and Biden likely won white vote there.  Southern suburbs of Wayne County also followed similar trend as Trump got about 10 points higher than Romney in those win or lose.  Even more interesting is Macomb county voted for Whitmer both times so is it just a good fit for Trump or reason swinging right?

Lake County, Illinois & southern suburbs of Cuyahoga County - Former was swing until Trump while latter went for Obama both times and Sherrod Brown in 2018 midterms but Trump both times.

Cincinnati Collar counties and western suburbs in Hamilton County - Former have stayed around 60% GOP despite Hamilton County swinging heavily Democrat while western suburbs of Hamilton County, Trump got over 70% which is more in line with rural areas.  Only reason Hamilton County swinging is northern suburbs have swung strongly towards Democrats.

Long Island - Last time Democrats did well there was 2000.  Since 2004 its been Nassau County Democrat by single digits while Suffolk County almost evenly split whichever way it went.

Staten Island - Unlike neighboring counties in New Jersey it is still GOP and last time Democrats won it easily was Gore in 2000.  Obama won it in 2012 but that was probably due to Hurricane Sandy leading to suppressed turnout in southern half where GOP strongest.  In fact in South shore, GOP gets over 70% which is reddest part of New York state, even more so than rural upstate counties.

Ocean County, New Jersey - It is a ways out but it has trended right and now solidly GOP

Gloucester County, New Jersey - It usually went Democrat but then Trump won it in 2016 but narrowly swung back to Biden so a swing county but trended right unlike most other Philadelphia suburbs

Eastern suburbs of Baltimore county - While county as whole has become more Democrat, eastern parts still seem very racially polarized, more like Deep South.  Northern part has swung left even in heavily white areas while western part is predominately African-American.

Charlotte suburbs: While Cabarrus county and suburban parts of Mecklenburg county have swung towards Democrats, Union & Gaston county are stuck at low 60s for GOP.

Northern suburbs of Tampa: Pasco and Hernando county were swingy in early 2000s, now GOP wins by over 20 points.

Miami-Dade county I left off as it seems to bounce back and forth and looking at precincts there it is clearly due to big swing amongst Cuban community.

So be interested in answers and if cannot answer all, just answer ones you know, especially if from your neck of the woods.

[Bismarck]

Lake County Indiana (Gary, Hammond, Merrilville, Crown Point, Saint John etc) has trended GOP.

[mileslunn]

Lake County Indiana (Gary, Hammond, Merrilville, Crown Point, Saint John etc) has trended GOP.

True enough although Democrats still winning by double digits and ironically GOP support there is actually fairly close to what Democrats getting in other collar counties on Illinois side whereas historically it was unusually blue for a suburban county.  Mind you also very working class and it seems working class suburbs have trended right while more middle class and especially affluent have trended left.  Also I believe African-American population there has fallen and that would hurt Democrats whereas in most suburban counties they have grown.

[Sol]

Most of these areas are kind of similar sorts of places -- much less college educated areas, and sometimes  more lower middle class or working class (unlike the UMC and upper class suburbs which have swung more strongly). With increasing education polarization in the Trump era these are the kind of places where you'd expect Republicans to do better comparatively.

The ones that don't quite fit that characterization are more interesting:

-Rockwall County is pretty interesting; though it has swung quite a bit to the Democrats in the past few elections it hasn't swung as hard as other parts of the Metroplex. IMO this is likely because it's a bit more exurban than a place like Collin or Denton counties. Growth in the Dallas area seems to be more heavily concentrated 1) to the North, the traditional favored corridor with a lot of edge cities, and 2) to the west because it gets growth from suburbanization in Fort Worth too. I wonder if being largely on the east side of Lake Ray Hubbard matters too. Would be interested to hear Dallas people's takes!
-St. Charles is similarly more exurban; the low hanging fruit in the past few years for Democrats has been traditionally Republican inner suburbs in St. Louis county.
-Cincinnati's suburbs are super conservative, for reasons that are always a little confusing to me -- something to do with German Catholics and racial polarization, amplified by having more Southern cultural influence than most Midwestern cities.
-Charlotte isn't that large, so all of its suburban counties are outer suburban at least and all have a large exurban element. Gastonia is also its own separate center to some extent, and it used to be fairly industrial. Cabarrus is probably the least exurban of these, and has also seen a lot more diversification than any of the others, so its swing makes sense.

[ProgressiveModerate]

For LI, SI, and Ocean County, it's basically been political self-sorting combined with the unique politics of Italian and Jewish voters that make these places so Conservative with weird shifts.

Northern Tampa suburbs drift right is mostly a factor of retirees - many of these suburbs have ballooned in population too so the electorate 20 years ago is very very unrepresentative of the electorate today.

Macomb and Oakland Counties are interesting neighbors because they're sort of opposites of eachother. While it is true Macomb is getting more diverse, it's the more WWC suburbs with a lot of history in blue collar industries and relatively low college attainment. Oakland on the other hand is also becoming more diverse, has much higher college attainment, and is mostly white-collar.

The southern suburbs of Cuyahoga County are sort of simillar to Macomb County - traditionally White Working Class suburbs with low educational that Trump has good appeal for.

[King of Kensington]

Ocean County has rather unique demographics and it's an example of a solid income/not particularly educated county.  There's the rapidly growing ultra-Orthodox Jewish community in Lakewood.  Plus it's got a large trades/small business demographic and heavily Italian American and has a lot of cheaper sprawl housing.  Not surprisingly it's the most GOP county in the NYC metro (even more than Staten Island).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ocean County has rather unique demographics and it's an example of a solid income/not particularly educated county.  There's the rapidly growing ultra-Orthodox Jewish community in Lakewood.  Plus it's got a large trades/small business demographic and heavily Italian American and has a lot of cheaper sprawl housing.  Not surprisingly it's the most GOP county in the NYC metro (even more than Staten Island).

It's also very white. Staten Island's southern half is redder than basically all of Ocean County (outside Lakewood), but the more non-white Northern half helps keep the County closer.

[kwabbit]

For LI, SI, and Ocean County, it's basically been political self-sorting combined with the unique politics of Italian and Jewish voters that make these places so Conservative with weird shifts.

Northern Tampa suburbs drift right is mostly a factor of retirees - many of these suburbs have ballooned in population too so the electorate 20 years ago is very very unrepresentative of the electorate today.

Macomb and Oakland Counties are interesting neighbors because they're sort of opposites of eachother. While it is true Macomb is getting more diverse, it's the more WWC suburbs with a lot of history in blue collar industries and relatively low college attainment. Oakland on the other hand is also becoming more diverse, has much higher college attainment, and is mostly white-collar.

The southern suburbs of Cuyahoga County are sort of simillar to Macomb County - traditionally White Working Class suburbs with low educational that Trump has good appeal for.

Pasco and Hernando is partially retirees but not all retiree areas have trended right. They are not that retiree heavy, being the youngest populated counties on the gulf coast, excluding the beachless Hillsborough. They are both quite White and have very low education attainment (outside of Wesley Chapel/Land o' Lakes). The non-White population is mostly Hispanic. Regardless of retirees these types of areas have swung far right since in 2000. Gore doing so well was from a time when working class White areas were to the left of educated/affluent areas. Even in WWC FL counties known as not being retiree destinations Gore did a lot better.

[JGibson]

Madison County, IL is a union-heavy county, which led to Democratic successes until the 2010s in the Trump era. The IL 3 corridor area outside of Alton (eg. Granite City, Hartford, East Alton, and Wood River) used to be heavily Democratic; however, the last 10 or so years, the area has shifted hard to the right, which is what turned the once-solid Donkey Blue IL-HD111 to turn into a swing seat, and then a solid Elephant Red in the space of a few years. IL-HD112, on the other hand, has turned more and more Democratic in the past 10 years, as it features the majority of the perpetually growing cities of Edwardsville, Glen Carbon, Maryville, and stagnant growth town of Collinsville.


It's sad that the Madison County Democratic Party has declined in recent years. (I am a precinct committeeperson for the MCDP).

State Reps during the last 10 years:
IL-HD111: Beiser (D), Bristow (D), Elik (R)
IL-HD112: Kay (R), Stuart (D)


State Senate during the last 10 years:
IL-SD56 (nested in are IL-HD111 and IL-HD112): B. Haine (D), Aud Crowe (D), Tharp (D), Conway Harriss (R)

Twitter Thread from 2020 explaining the trends: https://twitter.com/JGibsonDem/status/1344124134306050048

[mileslunn]

For Macomb County, educational attainment makes some sense, but still wondering how Whitmer won it both times.  Also Trump likely got about 60% of white vote and it seems that far north you don't see that very much in suburban counties unless unique like Staten Island or have large exurban component like Waukesha County (Trump won all parts, but suburban parts were much closer than more rural western parts were).

For Ocean County and Staten Island, interesting how strongly GOP Italian community is yet that is not the case in every state.  Massachusetts has a large Italian community yet it seems they vote just as heavily Democrat as other whites so reason for difference?  Even in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Illinois, and California, Italians probably go GOP in first three but their margins aren't that much different than whites in general unlike New York and New Jersey where they are significantly more Republican than other white groups.

For Jewish, I assume in case of Ocean County large Hasidic as Jews in general are quite strongly Democrat, but the Hasidic and Haredi minority vote massively GOP.  I heard also Ocean County has huge retiree so probably like Florida plays a role.

For Cincinnati suburbs, German Catholics is interesting as I would assume in most places its mid to high 50s GOP, low 40s Democrats as Wisconsin has very large German Catholic population yet it seems pretty evenly split or maybe slight GOP edge but not like Cincinnati suburbs.  Numbers in Western Hamilton county are more typical of White Evangelicals which you do have a fair number as on northern edge of Bible Belt, but don't dominate to same extent as do further South.

[ProgressiveModerate]

For Macomb County, educational attainment makes some sense, but still wondering how Whitmer won it both times.  Also Trump likely got about 60% of white vote and it seems that far north you don't see that very much in suburban counties unless unique like Staten Island or have large exurban component like Waukesha County (Trump won all parts, but suburban parts were much closer than more rural western parts were).

For Ocean County and Staten Island, interesting how strongly GOP Italian community is yet that is not the case in every state.  Massachusetts has a large Italian community yet it seems they vote just as heavily Democrat as other whites so reason for difference?  Even in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Illinois, and California, Italians probably go GOP in first three but their margins aren't that much different than whites in general unlike New York and New Jersey where they are significantly more Republican than other white groups.

For Jewish, I assume in case of Ocean County large Hasidic as Jews in general are quite strongly Democrat, but the Hasidic and Haredi minority vote massively GOP.  I heard also Ocean County has huge retiree so probably like Florida plays a role.

For Cincinnati suburbs, German Catholics is interesting as I would assume in most places its mid to high 50s GOP, low 40s Democrats as Wisconsin has very large German Catholic population yet it seems pretty evenly split or maybe slight GOP edge but not like Cincinnati suburbs.  Numbers in Western Hamilton county are more typical of White Evangelicals which you do have a fair number as on northern edge of Bible Belt, but don't dominate to same extent as do further South.

I think Macomb and Oakland county are unique because the cultural sorting between them is more extreme than most other suburban counties in northern cities. You see college educated white collar types heavily favoring Oakland while non-college blue collar types heavily favor Macomb - there's historical reasons for this, and also why the drop-off in black population crossing the Wayne County border north into Macomb and Oakland is so stark as well.

Also Whitmer won in landslides both times; the County didn't really trend much harder left than the state when you compare 2018 and 2022 Gov to 2016 and 2020 Pres. The only reason it swung left harder than the rest of the state is because re-alignment tends to lag down ballot. Whitmer would be expected to win Macomb by the amount she did in both her runs based on the amount she won by statewide.

Furthermore, you do see suburbs in the region where Trump got above 60%+ of the (white) vote that are demographically simillar - see the the suburbs South of Cleveland, or the suburbs on the south side of Indianapolis.

[Roll Roons]

For Ocean County and Staten Island, interesting how strongly GOP Italian community is yet that is not the case in every state.  Massachusetts has a large Italian community yet it seems they vote just as heavily Democrat as other whites so reason for difference?  Even in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Illinois, and California, Italians probably go GOP in first three but their margins aren't that much different than whites in general unlike New York and New Jersey where they are significantly more Republican than other white groups.

I'm not sure about MA, but I feel like Italians have definitely replaced WASPs as the Republican base in CT and RI.

[mileslunn]

Thanks for responses, still looking for responses on following for those familiar with areas:

Anoka County, Minnesota which has been static since 2000 and narrowly GOP, not swung left like rest of Twin Cities metro area.

Clay and Platte Counties, Missouri which also stuck as narrow GOP win since 2000 whereas Johnson County, Kansas was over 60% GOP in early 2000s but went for Biden in 2000 so are those two more blue collar and if so then should be swinging GOP yet static.  Johnson County I am guessing must have more college educated types than those two?

Jefferson County, Missouri - While not surprised GOP won it, margins some rather unusually high as it does include a fair bit of exurban and rural, but still suburban so if GOP got in 50s that would make sense, but 2/3 is quite high so reason for that?

Kenosha and Racine Counties - I am guessing these are like Macomb County with high number of whites without college degree thus why went Obama both times but then Trump both.

Lake County, Ohio - Long time bellwether, but went for Trump by double digits.

Gloucester County, New Jersey - Unlike other Philadelphia suburbs it has swung towards Trump as won it in 2016 although flipped back to Biden, but still much more competitive than other Philly area suburbs.

Eastern suburbs of Baltimore county - Noticed GOP not only won those but despite sizeable African-American population, GOP support not far behind percentage white thus voting patterns more resembling what is typical in Deep South than Mid Atlantic or other suburbs in Acela corridor.

Off course if anyone can add more on others answered that would be great too.

[King of Kensington]

Gloucester County, New Jersey - Unlike other Philadelphia suburbs it has swung towards Trump as won it in 2016 although flipped back to Biden, but still much more competitive than other Philly area suburbs.

South Jersey suburbs are more Italian and more WWC than the Philadelphia suburbs in PA.

[mileslunn]

Gloucester County, New Jersey - Unlike other Philadelphia suburbs it has swung towards Trump as won it in 2016 although flipped back to Biden, but still much more competitive than other Philly area suburbs.

South Jersey suburbs are more Italian and more WWC than the Philadelphia suburbs in PA.

But how about Burlington and Camden Counties as Biden won those by pretty solid margins.  Camden has large Black and Hispanic but Burlington county is mostly white but some minorities but almost same as Gloucester county, although perhaps more white collar types like Philly suburbs in PA.

[Smash255]

Thanks for responses, still looking for responses on following for those familiar with areas:

Anoka County, Minnesota which has been static since 2000 and narrowly GOP, not swung left like rest of Twin Cities metro area.

Clay and Platte Counties, Missouri which also stuck as narrow GOP win since 2000 whereas Johnson County, Kansas was over 60% GOP in early 2000s but went for Biden in 2000 so are those two more blue collar and if so then should be swinging GOP yet static.  Johnson County I am guessing must have more college educated types than those two?

Jefferson County, Missouri - While not surprised GOP won it, margins some rather unusually high as it does include a fair bit of exurban and rural, but still suburban so if GOP got in 50s that would make sense, but 2/3 is quite high so reason for that?

Kenosha and Racine Counties - I am guessing these are like Macomb County with high number of whites without college degree thus why went Obama both times but then Trump both.

Lake County, Ohio - Long time bellwether, but went for Trump by double digits.

Gloucester County, New Jersey - Unlike other Philadelphia suburbs it has swung towards Trump as won it in 2016 although flipped back to Biden, but still much more competitive than other Philly area suburbs.

Eastern suburbs of Baltimore county - Noticed GOP not only won those but despite sizeable African-American population, GOP support not far behind percentage white thus voting patterns more resembling what is typical in Deep South than Mid Atlantic or other suburbs in Acela corridor.

Off course if anyone can add more on others answered that would be great too.

With the KC suburbs, Johnson County is certainly the most white collar and college educated (56.7% of those 25 & over have a Bachelor's) .  Platte is fairly college educated as well, though not quite at the level of Johnson (around 44%) and has swung a bit.   Clay is certainly the most working class and least educated of the three, though its not overwhelmingly so (pretty much on par with the national average), so you probably have a few different trends within the county that cancel each other out.   The racial demogrpahics within the three counties are quite close to one another.

[kwabbit]

Gloucester County, New Jersey - Unlike other Philadelphia suburbs it has swung towards Trump as won it in 2016 although flipped back to Biden, but still much more competitive than other Philly area suburbs.

South Jersey suburbs are more Italian and more WWC than the Philadelphia suburbs in PA.

But how about Burlington and Camden Counties as Biden won those by pretty solid margins.  Camden has large Black and Hispanic but Burlington county is mostly white but some minorities but almost same as Gloucester county, although perhaps more white collar types like Philly suburbs in PA.

Burlington is more educated than Gloucester and Camden. Burlington is 40% college educated, Gloucester and Camden are closer to 30%.

There are two main components of 12-20 shifts. One is demographic factors, i.e. what a regression model would predict the shift would be. Second is the 'error' factor of that regression model changing. Essentially this is overperformance due to historical or local factors, the gap between what demographics predict and the actual result. The trend from 12-20 is for that gap to shrink. In South Jersey that gap used to be substantial for Democrats, as a result of a local Democratic machine, particularly in Camden/Gloucester/Cumberland/Atlantic. Based on purely demographics, you'd expect a swing right of a few points in Gloucester and Camden and a swing left of a few points in Burlington. However, the GOP has exceeded that in each as the advantage of local Democratic strength has eroded.

This factor is big in ancestrally GOP areas as well. Based purely on demographics, very uneducated counties with huge Hispanic populations like San Bernardino and Riverside should have swung right in 2020. However erosion of historical GOP strength continued to push them left. The same is true in big TX counties like Bexar and Dallas. Neither are very college educated but still are shifting left as traditional GOP dominance of White suburbanites is eroding.

[mileslunn]

Thanks for responses, still looking for responses on following for those familiar with areas:

Anoka County, Minnesota which has been static since 2000 and narrowly GOP, not swung left like rest of Twin Cities metro area.

Clay and Platte Counties, Missouri which also stuck as narrow GOP win since 2000 whereas Johnson County, Kansas was over 60% GOP in early 2000s but went for Biden in 2000 so are those two more blue collar and if so then should be swinging GOP yet static.  Johnson County I am guessing must have more college educated types than those two?

Jefferson County, Missouri - While not surprised GOP won it, margins some rather unusually high as it does include a fair bit of exurban and rural, but still suburban so if GOP got in 50s that would make sense, but 2/3 is quite high so reason for that?

Kenosha and Racine Counties - I am guessing these are like Macomb County with high number of whites without college degree thus why went Obama both times but then Trump both.

Lake County, Ohio - Long time bellwether, but went for Trump by double digits.

Gloucester County, New Jersey - Unlike other Philadelphia suburbs it has swung towards Trump as won it in 2016 although flipped back to Biden, but still much more competitive than other Philly area suburbs.

Eastern suburbs of Baltimore county - Noticed GOP not only won those but despite sizeable African-American population, GOP support not far behind percentage white thus voting patterns more resembling what is typical in Deep South than Mid Atlantic or other suburbs in Acela corridor.

Off course if anyone can add more on others answered that would be great too.

With the KC suburbs, Johnson County is certainly the most white collar and college educated (56.7% of those 25 & over have a Bachelor's) .  Platte is fairly college educated as well, though not quite at the level of Johnson (around 44%) and has swung a bit.   Clay is certainly the most working class and least educated of the three, though its not overwhelmingly so (pretty much on par with the national average), so you probably have a few different trends within the county that cancel each other out.   The racial demogrpahics within the three counties are quite close to one another.

Other is perhaps Clay and Platte have a larger rural component than Johnson as noticed looking at precincts, Trump won big in rural parts so possible since 2000 rural areas like rest of country have swung right, but suburban left and two in those cancelled each other out but not in Johnson? 

[King of Kensington]

For Ocean County and Staten Island, interesting how strongly GOP Italian community is yet that is not the case in every state.  Massachusetts has a large Italian community yet it seems they vote just as heavily Democrat as other whites so reason for difference?  Even in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Illinois, and California, Italians probably go GOP in first three but their margins aren't that much different than whites in general unlike New York and New Jersey where they are significantly more Republican than other white groups.

It's easier to isolate the Italian American vote in the New York metro area.  Italian is the most common white ancestry group in the region (while Italian ranks third in Boston and Philadelphia and fifth in Chicago).  They're also more likely than elsewhere to report only Italian ancestry as opposed to Italian and something else.  66% in Staten Island, 60% in Queens, 56% in Westchester, 52% in Nassau for example are "Italian alone."  I don't think there's any county outside the NYC metro area where there Italian alone outnumbers Italian in combination with something else. 

[Smash255]

Thanks for responses, still looking for responses on following for those familiar with areas:

Anoka County, Minnesota which has been static since 2000 and narrowly GOP, not swung left like rest of Twin Cities metro area.

Clay and Platte Counties, Missouri which also stuck as narrow GOP win since 2000 whereas Johnson County, Kansas was over 60% GOP in early 2000s but went for Biden in 2000 so are those two more blue collar and if so then should be swinging GOP yet static.  Johnson County I am guessing must have more college educated types than those two?

Jefferson County, Missouri - While not surprised GOP won it, margins some rather unusually high as it does include a fair bit of exurban and rural, but still suburban so if GOP got in 50s that would make sense, but 2/3 is quite high so reason for that?

Kenosha and Racine Counties - I am guessing these are like Macomb County with high number of whites without college degree thus why went Obama both times but then Trump both.

Lake County, Ohio - Long time bellwether, but went for Trump by double digits.

Gloucester County, New Jersey - Unlike other Philadelphia suburbs it has swung towards Trump as won it in 2016 although flipped back to Biden, but still much more competitive than other Philly area suburbs.

Eastern suburbs of Baltimore county - Noticed GOP not only won those but despite sizeable African-American population, GOP support not far behind percentage white thus voting patterns more resembling what is typical in Deep South than Mid Atlantic or other suburbs in Acela corridor.

Off course if anyone can add more on others answered that would be great too.

With the KC suburbs, Johnson County is certainly the most white collar and college educated (56.7% of those 25 & over have a Bachelor's) .  Platte is fairly college educated as well, though not quite at the level of Johnson (around 44%) and has swung a bit.   Clay is certainly the most working class and least educated of the three, though its not overwhelmingly so (pretty much on par with the national average), so you probably have a few different trends within the county that cancel each other out.   The racial demogrpahics within the three counties are quite close to one another.

Other is perhaps Clay and Platte have a larger rural component than Johnson as noticed looking at precincts, Trump won big in rural parts so possible since 2000 rural areas like rest of country have swung right, but suburban left and two in those cancelled each other out but not in Johnson? 

That is true to a point, and though perhaps getting a bit technical, none of them have much of a rural population to speak of, though Platte & Clay are certainly more exurban than Johnson.
 Johnson's population density is considerably higher (about double Clay and more than triple Platte's)

[King of Kensington]

Italian Americans, 2020 census, % of state population

Massachusetts  818,681  11.6%
Rhode Island  167,637  15.3%
Connecticut  568,994  15.8%
New York  2,298,495  11.4%
New Jersey  1,373,357  14.8%
Pennsylvania  1,417,501  10.9%
Illinois  755,826  5.9%
California  1,548,900  3.9%

US total  16,813,235  5.1%

Italian alone, % of state population

Massachusetts  297,240  4.2%
Rhode Island  73,326  6.7%
Connecticut  240,286  6.7%
New York  1,104,185  5.5%
New Jersey  608,791  6.6%
Pennsylvania  521,524  4%
Illinois  254,991  2%
California  577,112  1.5%

US total  6,629,993  2%

Italian alone as % of Italian Americans

Massachusetts  36.3%
Rhode Island  43.7%
Connecticut  42.2%
New York  48%
New Jersey  44.3%
Pennsylvania  36.8%
Illinois  33.7%
California  37.3%

US total  39.4%

[mileslunn]

For Ocean County and Staten Island, interesting how strongly GOP Italian community is yet that is not the case in every state.  Massachusetts has a large Italian community yet it seems they vote just as heavily Democrat as other whites so reason for difference?  Even in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Illinois, and California, Italians probably go GOP in first three but their margins aren't that much different than whites in general unlike New York and New Jersey where they are significantly more Republican than other white groups.

It's easier to isolate the Italian American vote in the New York metro area.  Italian is the most common white ancestry group in the region (while Italian ranks third in Boston and Philadelphia and fifth in Chicago).  They're also more likely than elsewhere to report only Italian ancestry as opposed to Italian and something else.  66% in Staten Island, 60% in Queens, 56% in Westchester, 52% in Nassau for example are "Italian alone."  I don't think there's any county outside the NYC metro area where there Italian alone outnumbers Italian in combination with something else. 

So otherwise areas where Italian alone more Republican as opposed to Italian and other.  It seems in Northeast heavily Irish areas are where Democrats do best amongst whites while heavily English areas seem to have biggest shifts from GOP to Democrats since 2012.  While more in New England, it seems French and Portuguese shifted either way with Obama clearly winning them, but Trump doing quite well with them.

And in case of Massachusetts perhaps many Italians are mix of Irish and Italian thus why Democrats do well.  Interesting that in Canada until very recently, Italians were quite reliably Liberal and seems shift took much longer and even then Conservatives and Liberals are about even, not GOP advantage like in US.  Although Conservatives maybe do a bit better as do Liberals as NDP very weak.  Using GTA, it was probably in 40s for both Liberals and Conservatives amongst Italians.  Montreal whole different ballgame.  Be interesting how they vote in Australia whether go L/NP or Labor.  But back on topic that does make sense.

[King of Kensington]

It makes sense that Italian alone are more likely to have a distinctive voting pattern from the "mainstream white" vote than those who are mixed with other white groups as they're more likely to be culturally distinctive.

Italian is the top ancestry group in most suburban NYC counties:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=578528.0

[King of Kensington]

Mass. is one of the few states where Biden won the White Catholic vote outright (California is another):

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=412714.0

[mileslunn]

Anyone know what is happening with Anoka County which seems stuck in neutral unlike Dakota and Washington counties which have swung Democrat or Scott and Carver where GOP margins cut and Biden won most suburban municipalities but lost bad in rural parts?  If white working class, it hasn't swung away from Democrats like Macomb County, just been static.

Lake County, Ohio I am guessing is white working class like Macomb County as was a bellwether pre Trump, now fairly solidly GOP.

Eastern suburbs of Baltimore County also no answer on and that I find puzzling as large African-American population so must mean whites there go massively GOP which is not typical for suburbs even in South unless a smaller city like say Birmingham, Alabama, so any reason for that.