When will democrats carry Cabarrus County, NC?

[wnwnwn]

Between 1988 and 2004, democrats got around 32% of the vote there. They got around 39% of the vote in the next three elections (2008-12-16). In 2020, they got 44% of the vote.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Maybe the next election where there's an unpopular GOP incumbent in the White House.

[mileslunn]

Probably next election there is a GOP incumbent so likely in next decade.  That being said not impossible that gap tightens even further from 2020 but doubt it flips

[DS0816]

Between 1988 and 2004, [Democrats] got around 32% of the vote there [Carrabus County, North Carolina]. They got around 39% of the vote in the next three elections (2008-12-16). In 2020, they got 44% of the vote.

…. The next election cycle in which U.S. President switches from Republican to Democratic. That North Carolina would follow suit.

Don’t just eye Carrabus County. Look to New Hanover County as well.

New Hanover County, North Carolina was a 2020 Democratic pickup (for Joe Biden, who did not flip the state). But it was not the case in 2008 (it was a Republican hold while Barack Obama flipped the state). 2022 U.S. Senate nominee Cheri Beasley won a Democratic pickup of New Hanover County. This North Carolina county may have a similar characteristic to Texas’s Tarrant County. (Not entirely certain.)

So, when the time comes—Democratic pickups for U.S. President and North Carolina—these two counties—Carrabus and New Hanover—will be instrumental.

[Schiff for Senate]

Between 1988 and 2004, [Democrats] got around 32% of the vote there [Carrabus County, North Carolina]. They got around 39% of the vote in the next three elections (2008-12-16). In 2020, they got 44% of the vote.

…. The next election cycle in which U.S. President switches from Republican to Democratic. That North Carolina would follow suit.

Don’t just eye Carrabus County. Look to New Hanover County as well.

New Hanover County, North Carolina was a 2020 Democratic pickup (for Joe Biden, who did not flip the state). But it was not the case in 2008 (it was a Republican hold while Barack Obama flipped the state). 2022 U.S. Senate nominee Cheri Bustos won a Democratic pickup of New Hanover County. This North Carolina county may have a similar characteristic to Texas’s Tarrant County. (Not entirely certain.)

So, when the time comes—Democratic pickups for U.S. President and North Carolina—these two counties—Carrabus and New Hanover—will be instrumental.

Cheri Bustos is a Quad Cities congresswoman. You're thinking of Cheri Beasley.

[DS0816]

Between 1988 and 2004, [Democrats] got around 32% of the vote there [Carrabus County, North Carolina]. They got around 39% of the vote in the next three elections (2008-12-16). In 2020, they got 44% of the vote.

…. The next election cycle in which U.S. President switches from Republican to Democratic. That North Carolina would follow suit.

Don’t just eye Carrabus County. Look to New Hanover County as well.

New Hanover County, North Carolina was a 2020 Democratic pickup (for Joe Biden, who did not flip the state). But it was not the case in 2008 (it was a Republican hold while Barack Obama flipped the state). 2022 U.S. Senate nominee Cheri Bustos won a Democratic pickup of New Hanover County. This North Carolina county may have a similar characteristic to Texas’s Tarrant County. (Not entirely certain.)

So, when the time comes—Democratic pickups for U.S. President and North Carolina—these two counties—Carrabus and New Hanover—will be instrumental.

Cheri Bustos is a Quad Cities congresswoman. You're thinking of Cheri Beasley.

I had the wrong last name when I did mean Beasley.

Thank you for letting me know.

I have corrected it.

[Vern]

It will flip when NC flips to Dem.

[Sol]

Don’t just eye Carrabus County. Look to New Hanover County as well.

New Hanover County, North Carolina was a 2020 Democratic pickup (for Joe Biden, who did not flip the state). But it was not the case in 2008 (it was a Republican hold while Barack Obama flipped the state). 2022 U.S. Senate nominee Cheri Beasley won a Democratic pickup of New Hanover County. This North Carolina county may have a similar characteristic to Texas’s Tarrant County. (Not entirely certain.)

So, when the time comes—Democratic pickups for U.S. President and North Carolina—these two counties—Carrabus and New Hanover—will be instrumental.

New Hanover is a bit different; it's a fairly affluent small city, with a lot of retirees. It's not particularly diverse and isn't undergoing major change; it usually votes Republican but Democrats can win it either in a landslide or by doing well with affluent, college-educated white voters, since there's a high Democratic floor in the urban bits of Wilmington.

Meanwhile, the shifts in Cabarrus are being propelled by rapid population growth and increasing diversity. So a different dynamic than New Hanover. In a scenario where North Carolina becomes a more Democratic state as a result of shifts in the major cities, it's possible to imagine New Hanover still going Republican.

[Spectator]

I bet there’s a decent chance that Josh Stein wins it this year. In a Trump midterm, I’d bet money that Cooper wins it in the 2026 Senate race. Then it flips presidentially in 2028.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

I wonder if the county would have flipped this year if Trump had been re-elected in 2020.