NH (St. Anselm): Trump +14
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  NH (St. Anselm): Trump +14		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: NH (St. Anselm): Trump +14  (Read 447 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: January 17, 2024, 05:11:12 PM »
Trump 52% (+7)
Haley 38% (+7)
DeSantis 6% (=)

Republicans: Trump +40 (65-25)
Independents/Undeclared: Haley +15 (52-37)

https://www.anselm.edu/about/anselmian-hub/news/new-poll-saint-anselm-college-survey-center-finds-trump-now-enjoys-majority-support-within-likely-nh-republican-presidential-primary-voters
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2024, 05:11:39 PM »
The general consensus outside of ARG has been about Trump +15 which sounds about right.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2024, 05:12:29 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on January 17, 2024, 05:11:39 PM
The general consensus outside of ARG has been about Trump +15 which sounds about right.

If that's the case, I suspect Haley will drop out rather than face an embarassing defeat in SC.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2024, 05:22:27 PM »
A Haley upset would have been fun to see, but it was probably never in the cards.
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bilaps
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« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2024, 05:33:36 PM »
Safe to say ARG polls are garbage

This one has 53% R 47% I composition of electorate.

I mean, I could see Haley getting into high single digits deficit even though polls don't show that, but still it would end her campaign.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2024, 05:54:38 PM »
Lmao Rob at 6%
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2024, 07:21:32 PM »
« Edited: January 17, 2024, 07:26:10 PM by AncestralDemocrat. »
Even in her most favorable NH poll (ARG), Haley isn't breaking past 40%.
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oldtimer
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« Reply #7 on: January 18, 2024, 02:22:38 AM »
Quote from: AncestralDemocrat. on January 17, 2024, 07:21:32 PM
Even in her most favorable NH poll (ARG), Haley isn't breaking past 40%.

Take the polling average before the dropouts, which was basically Trump 45 , Haley 30 , Christie 10 , D.S. 5 , Vivek 5 , and all these the polls make sense.

If you add a slice of Christie and all of Vivek to Trump he gets just over 50, give most of Christie to Haley and she is just under 40.
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