Will Georgia Become a Red State Again?
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  Will Georgia Become a Red State Again?
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Author Topic: Will Georgia Become a Red State Again?  (Read 1504 times)
GAinDC
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« on: January 16, 2024, 12:00:45 PM »

A lot has been made of GA becoming blue, but what if the opposite is true?

If a realignment occurs where Republicans continue to do very well in rural areas while improving their performance among lower income urban voters, does that make GA a red state again?
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #1 on: January 16, 2024, 02:30:46 PM »

If it does it might be looked back on as the next Indiana 2008. I was going to say the difference is Indiana didn't have two Democratic senators, but then I remembered Evan Bayh and Joe Donnelly... Not at the same time, but close.
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Fancyarcher
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« Reply #2 on: January 16, 2024, 02:42:06 PM »
« Edited: January 16, 2024, 02:48:35 PM by Fancyarcher »

If it does it might be looked back on as the next Indiana 2008. I was going to say the difference is Indiana didn't have two Democratic senators, but then I remembered Evan Bayh and Joe Donnelly... Not at the same time, but close.


The Indiana 2008 comparisons makes zero sense, not just because there'll probably never be another Indiana 08 in our lifetimes, but also because Georgia swung left in 2016, and was in single digits. It was always there for the taking.

And Bayh got elected in a far less polarized time, he and Donnelly subsequently lost fairly badly. The fact that Georgia has two Democratic Senators in 2024 is very noteworthy.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #3 on: January 16, 2024, 10:22:46 PM »

The only way Georgia can become a red state after 2024 is if Trump carries it but fails to reach 270 EV and thus the Presidency. If Trump or Biden win Georgia and the presidency, it remains a swing state since it voted for the winner of the presidential election three times in a row. If Biden likewise wins Georgia without re-election then it's fair to call it a blue state. This is a pretty solid barometer that works since 2004.
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wnwnwn
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« Reply #4 on: January 16, 2024, 11:06:16 PM »

Democrats won the last Senate election and republicans won the last House election by 4,62%
There is little sign of a possibility of it becoming a safe republican state again.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #5 on: January 16, 2024, 11:14:24 PM »

If it does it might be looked back on as the next Indiana 2008. I was going to say the difference is Indiana didn't have two Democratic senators, but then I remembered Evan Bayh and Joe Donnelly... Not at the same time, but close.


The Indiana 2008 comparisons makes zero sense, not just because there'll probably never be another Indiana 08 in our lifetimes, but also because Georgia swung left in 2016, and was in single digits. It was always there for the taking.

And Bayh got elected in a far less polarized time, he and Donnelly subsequently lost fairly badly. The fact that Georgia has two Democratic Senators in 2024 is very noteworthy.

Never said it was a perfect analogy, but would probably be the closest one.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #6 on: January 16, 2024, 11:53:47 PM »

If Ossoff and Warnock are both defeated by 2028 then yes I’ll call it a red state again.
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GAinDC
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« Reply #7 on: January 17, 2024, 11:49:34 AM »

If Ossoff and Warnock are both defeated by 2028 then yes I’ll call it a red state again.

Well yeah, haha

But what would need to change in Georgia for that to happen?
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2024, 12:21:37 PM »

If Ossoff and Warnock are both defeated by 2028 then yes I’ll call it a red state again.

Well yeah, haha

But what would need to change in Georgia for that to happen?

Probably Biden getting reelected.  2026 and 2028 would likely be bad cycles for the Democrats, then.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #9 on: January 17, 2024, 12:58:17 PM »

Georgia went blue on the strength of Democratic gains in the suburbs, gains driven by the revulsion that well-to-do suburbanites have towards Trump. If the post-Trump Republican Party goes back to its roots, say in the wake of the former president being convicted of his felony charges, I could see these voters eventually coming home.

I guess the bigger question is whether the Republican Party will evolve past Trump, or if they will instead double down into some sort ultra-MAGA party that exists to pave the way for the occluded Trump to return, like Shi'ite radicals who see their political work as preparing the way for the return of the Mahdi.
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GAinDC
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« Reply #10 on: January 17, 2024, 01:30:40 PM »

If Ossoff and Warnock are both defeated by 2028 then yes I’ll call it a red state again.

Well yeah, haha

But what would need to change in Georgia for that to happen?

Probably Biden getting reelected.  2026 and 2028 would likely be bad cycles for the Democrats, then.

But in that case, GA may still be a swing state that is just swinging with the nation
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2024, 03:13:47 PM »

Too soon to know.  It does seem that Republicans are having a moment in the South, though.  Clear reversion to pre-Trump style results in most Southern states since Dobbs.
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Devils30
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« Reply #12 on: January 17, 2024, 04:37:31 PM »

Doubtful, the idea of GA trending red again is based on some funky polls far out from the election. The Atlanta area has had a massive swing to the left and its hard to say things will swing back.
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Person Man
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« Reply #13 on: January 18, 2024, 07:31:46 AM »

Georgia went blue on the strength of Democratic gains in the suburbs, gains driven by the revulsion that well-to-do suburbanites have towards Trump. If the post-Trump Republican Party goes back to its roots, say in the wake of the former president being convicted of his felony charges, I could see these voters eventually coming home.

I guess the bigger question is whether the Republican Party will evolve past Trump, or if they will instead double down into some sort ultra-MAGA party that exists to pave the way for the occluded Trump to return, like Shi'ite radicals who see their political work as preparing the way for the return of the Mahdi.

That's a great analogy and a good answer to this is to urge you to not ask questions we all know they answers to. I guess this year is the last off ramp if Trump is found guilty of a felony in time for him not to be above the law.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #14 on: January 18, 2024, 09:49:07 AM »

Georgia went blue on the strength of Democratic gains in the suburbs, gains driven by the revulsion that well-to-do suburbanites have towards Trump. If the post-Trump Republican Party goes back to its roots, say in the wake of the former president being convicted of his felony charges, I could see these voters eventually coming home.

I guess the bigger question is whether the Republican Party will evolve past Trump, or if they will instead double down into some sort ultra-MAGA party that exists to pave the way for the occluded Trump to return, like Shi'ite radicals who see their political work as preparing the way for the return of the Mahdi.

That's a great analogy and a good answer to this is to urge you to not ask questions we all know they answers to. I guess this year is the last off ramp if Trump is found guilty of a felony in time for him not to be above the law.

The religious metaphor is tempting, I admit. His base of support is grounded in conservative suburbanites who were swept up in the Evangelical boom of the 1990s and 2000s and have been floundering since 2008. I can certainly see how they could interpret him as a Christ-like figure. If he is convicted and imprisoned, his public career breaks down almost perfectly along those lines:

2016 - Beginning of ministry
2020 - Betrayal
2024 - Crucifixion

I do wonder how his movement would evolve after he ceased to be a political figure. It is tempting to continue the analogy and imagine the MAGA movement reinventing itself as a more explicitly religious tendency. At the same time, I could very easily see his base getting swept up in excitement for another demagogue and, after a decade or so, forgetting entirely about their martyr.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #15 on: January 18, 2024, 10:39:14 AM »

Georgia went blue on the strength of Democratic gains in the suburbs, gains driven by the revulsion that well-to-do suburbanites have towards Trump. If the post-Trump Republican Party goes back to its roots, say in the wake of the former president being convicted of his felony charges, I could see these voters eventually coming home.

I guess the bigger question is whether the Republican Party will evolve past Trump, or if they will instead double down into some sort ultra-MAGA party that exists to pave the way for the occluded Trump to return, like Shi'ite radicals who see their political work as preparing the way for the return of the Mahdi.

That's a great analogy and a good answer to this is to urge you to not ask questions we all know they answers to. I guess this year is the last off ramp if Trump is found guilty of a felony in time for him not to be above the law.

The religious metaphor is tempting, I admit. His base of support is grounded in conservative suburbanites who were swept up in the Evangelical boom of the 1990s and 2000s and have been floundering since 2008. I can certainly see how they could interpret him as a Christ-like figure. If he is convicted and imprisoned, his public career breaks down almost perfectly along those lines:

2016 - Beginning of ministry
2020 - Betrayal
2024 - Crucifixion

I do wonder how his movement would evolve after he ceased to be a political figure. It is tempting to continue the analogy and imagine the MAGA movement reinventing itself as a more explicitly religious tendency. At the same time, I could very easily see his base getting swept up in excitement for another demagogue and, after a decade or so, forgetting entirely about their martyr.

Christians who believe they are stuck in the political minority backing the strongest, scariest warlord possible against the "pagans" after said warlord undergoes a very doubtful public conversion is the historical norm.  I don't think there's anything shocking about it.  Honestly, it's rational if you fear your community is about to be discriminated against for generations.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #16 on: January 18, 2024, 02:17:09 PM »

In general, I think people here are too quick to label a state red OR blue.  To me (and I would argue this is also the view of your Average Joe), a red/blue state is more like an Wyoming or Illinois - a state where one party is powerless enough that it fundamentally affects the daily lives of everyone and even causes the minority party to adapt its platform to the left/right.

I would not even consider Virginia a "blue state" simply because Republicans have a very, very remote chance of winning it in a Presidential election anytime soon ... same for Ohio on the GOP side.  If you lived in these states (even in the relatively Democratic or Republican areas), I do not think you would really feel like you live in a super partisan state.  In summation, I am in favor of a broad categorization of states as "purple," including its local politics.

In regard to Georgia, I would say it has not really been a "red state" since at least 2016, and it certainly is not a blue state.  I think it will be purple for quite a while.
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Smash255
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« Reply #17 on: January 18, 2024, 03:11:37 PM »

Red State in the sense that it is possible to win?   Yes

Red state in the sense that it will go back to being a Republican leaning state?   No

Obviously, can never say never for long term.  With that said, unless the GOP can stem the tide with educated metro area voters (and nothing they are doing currently indicates that), Georgia is not going to go back to a Republican state anytime soon.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #18 on: January 18, 2024, 07:33:13 PM »

Only if GOP starts doing much better amongst African-Americans.  I guess if suburbs start going GOP again could swing back, but in that case GOP would probably win hands down nationally if that happens.  However, if GOP starts routinely getting over 20% or even 30% of African-American vote, then it would become a solid red state again unless suburban and urban whites start voting Democrat in similar to numbers to their northern counterparts.
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DS0816
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« Reply #19 on: February 12, 2024, 03:50:29 PM »

A lot has been made of GA becoming blue, but what if the opposite is true?

If a realignment occurs where Republicans continue to do very well in rural areas while improving their performance among lower income urban voters, does that make GA a red state again?


I sense Georgia—and a state which votes like it, Arizona—is on the way to becoming a bellwether state.

I may write more about this at a later date.
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GAinDC
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« Reply #20 on: February 12, 2024, 04:23:24 PM »

A lot has been made of GA becoming blue, but what if the opposite is true?

If a realignment occurs where Republicans continue to do very well in rural areas while improving their performance among lower income urban voters, does that make GA a red state again?


I sense Georgia—and a state which votes like it, Arizona—is on the way to becoming a bellwether state.

I may write more about this at a later date.

I'd love to hear more.

What are your top line thoughts?
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DS0816
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« Reply #21 on: February 12, 2024, 06:55:12 PM »

A lot has been made of GA becoming blue, but what if the opposite is true?

If a realignment occurs where Republicans continue to do very well in rural areas while improving their performance among lower income urban voters, does that make GA a red state again?


I sense Georgia—and a state which votes like it, Arizona—is on the way to becoming a bellwether state.

I may write more about this at a later date.

I'd love to hear more.

What are your top line thoughts?

Focusing on Georgia, more so than Arizona, because it is a Top 10 populous state … my sense of this is that U.S. presidential elections may be much influenced on the below map by states appearing in Purple.

Those in Purple, which I think may be getting carried reliability by a winning party, include two from the Rust Belt and two from the Old Confederacy.

Those in Blue have a Democratic alignment.

Those in Red have a Republican alignment. (Lean Republican Texas, in Light Red, can be won by a Democrat who prevails and carries 8 of the Top 10; which, post-1980s, was the maximum number as experience by winning Democrats 1996 Bill Clinton and 2008 Barack Obama.)

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GAinDC
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« Reply #22 on: February 13, 2024, 10:41:11 AM »

A lot has been made of GA becoming blue, but what if the opposite is true?

If a realignment occurs where Republicans continue to do very well in rural areas while improving their performance among lower income urban voters, does that make GA a red state again?


I sense Georgia—and a state which votes like it, Arizona—is on the way to becoming a bellwether state.

I may write more about this at a later date.

I'd love to hear more.

What are your top line thoughts?

Focusing on Georgia, more so than Arizona, because it is a Top 10 populous state … my sense of this is that U.S. presidential elections may be much influenced on the below map by states appearing in Purple.

Those in Purple, which I think may be getting carried reliability by a winning party, include two from the Rust Belt and two from the Old Confederacy.

Those in Blue have a Democratic alignment.

Those in Red have a Republican alignment. (Lean Republican Texas, in Light Red, can be won by a Democrat who prevails and carries 8 of the Top 10; which, post-1980s, was the maximum number as experience by winning Democrats 1996 Bill Clinton and 2008 Barack Obama.)



Thanks for the details, but this doesn't really explain why and how you think Georgia will remain a swing state -- as opposed to red or blue.

What about Georgia's political geography keeps it competitive?
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Kabam
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« Reply #23 on: February 14, 2024, 09:14:12 AM »

Not that I have a particular knowledge about Georgia, but I just can't see it becoming a red state again. Republicans might win it again, because of the unpopularity of the Biden administration.

However, for it to become a red state again, the Republicans would need to bring people together in their coalition, who just do not fit together, from my perspective. Bringing a growing metro like Atlanta (with high black %) together with southern conservative white rural areas would need such a complete change of coalition that I cannot see it happening in today's society. 

It might not become a solid blue state as fast as some think, if Republicans manage do a bit better in Atlanta than expected, and vote Republican again in some elections, but I can't see it becoming a red state again, unless Atlanta starts shrinking again for some reason.
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GAinDC
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« Reply #24 on: February 20, 2024, 03:13:21 PM »

Not that I have a particular knowledge about Georgia, but I just can't see it becoming a red state again. Republicans might win it again, because of the unpopularity of the Biden administration.

However, for it to become a red state again, the Republicans would need to bring people together in their coalition, who just do not fit together, from my perspective. Bringing a growing metro like Atlanta (with high black %) together with southern conservative white rural areas would need such a complete change of coalition that I cannot see it happening in today's society. 

It might not become a solid blue state as fast as some think, if Republicans manage do a bit better in Atlanta than expected, and vote Republican again in some elections, but I can't see it becoming a red state again, unless Atlanta starts shrinking again for some reason.

But that's actually how Dems stayed in power in GA for so long - building a coalition of rural white and black voters in south Georgia that was bolstered by traditionally Dem constituencies in ATL.

Then the Republicans took over by creating a new coalition of rural and suburban white voters.

Both of those coalitions pieced together seemingly divergent groups, but it worked -- at least for a while.

So, I guess my point is never say never. There have been stranger bedfellows
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