Will Georgia Become a Red State Again?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Unless the suburbs start to magically swing back towards the Republicans, then no. Trump may very well end up winning there in November, but the state's long term prospects are heavily in favor of the Democrats.

[Pres Mike]

Its still a red state at the state level. Its currently a purple state at the federal level and I dont see either changing in the near future

[GAinDC]

Its still a red state at the state level. Its currently a purple state at the federal level and I dont see either changing in the near future

It’s still red at the state level because Republicans control the redistricting and they had a good cycle in 2022, besides the Senate race.

2026 in a Trump midterm could be brutal for Republicans there. In a Biden midterm, they have a better chance to hold on to the governorship and row office and maybe flip the Senate seat.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Best case for GA GOP to worst:
Trump wins GA, loses election  - Ossoff close to DOA in 2026, Governorship likely/safe R
Trump wins GA (large margin), wins election - Senate race tossup, Governorship leans R
Biden wins GA, wins election - Senate race tossup, Governorship leans R
Trump wins GA (narrowly), wins election - Senate race likely D, Governorship tossup
Trump loses GA, wins election - Senate race is a lock for Ossoff, Governorship leans/likely Dem

[Kabam]

Not that I have a particular knowledge about Georgia, but I just can't see it becoming a red state again. Republicans might win it again, because of the unpopularity of the Biden administration.

However, for it to become a red state again, the Republicans would need to bring people together in their coalition, who just do not fit together, from my perspective. Bringing a growing metro like Atlanta (with high black %) together with southern conservative white rural areas would need such a complete change of coalition that I cannot see it happening in today's society. 

It might not become a solid blue state as fast as some think, if Republicans manage do a bit better in Atlanta than expected, and vote Republican again in some elections, but I can't see it becoming a red state again, unless Atlanta starts shrinking again for some reason.

But that's actually how Dems stayed in power in GA for so long - building a coalition of rural white and black voters in south Georgia that was bolstered by traditionally Dem constituencies in ATL.

Then the Republicans took over by creating a new coalition of rural and suburban white voters.

Both of those coalitions pieced together seemingly divergent groups, but it worked -- at least for a while.

So, I guess my point is never say never. There have been stranger bedfellows

It's not completely impossible to happen at some point in the (far) future, of course.
But the way politics is polarised today, the topics of public discourse and the societal climate don't seem to point in any way towards those groups getting together in a coalition again.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Georgia is becoming more black and less whie.  It is down to 51% white, up to 31% black, and 6% bi-racial. 

By 2030, Georgia will be as Democratic as Virginia was in 2008, and in much the same way.  By 2040, Georgia will be as reliably Democratic as Virginia, barring a significant realignment nationwide amongst blacks and their political realigning.  My prediction is based on the black vote remaining at something like 90% and up for Democrats going forward.

[GAinDC]

Best case for GA GOP to worst:
Trump wins GA, loses election  - Ossoff close to DOA in 2026, Governorship likely/safe R
Trump wins GA (large margin), wins election - Senate race tossup, Governorship leans R
Biden wins GA, wins election - Senate race tossup, Governorship leans R
Trump wins GA (narrowly), wins election - Senate race likely D, Governorship tossup
Trump loses GA, wins election - Senate race is a lock for Ossoff, Governorship leans/likely Dem

What do you consider large vs narrow margins?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Best case for GA GOP to worst:
Trump wins GA, loses election  - Ossoff close to DOA in 2026, Governorship likely/safe R
Trump wins GA (large margin), wins election - Senate race tossup, Governorship leans R
Biden wins GA, wins election - Senate race tossup, Governorship leans R
Trump wins GA (narrowly), wins election - Senate race likely D, Governorship tossup
Trump loses GA, wins election - Senate race is a lock for Ossoff, Governorship leans/likely Dem

What do you consider large vs narrow margins?

Maybe 3 points I suppose? It's not large in a conventional manner, but it would still be nearly 100k votes and a pretty comfortable buffer.