CNN's poll shows that Kerry and Edwards lead Bush

[Huckleberry Finn]

Kerry leads Bush in new poll
Bush's approval numbers dip


Sen. John Kerry leads President Bush in a new poll.

(CNN) -- Sen. John Kerry, the front-runner among Democrats vying for their party's presidential nomination, leads President Bush in a head-to-head matchup, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Monday.

Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina and retired Gen. Wesley Clark also emerge as formidable opponents, according to hypothetical matchups in the poll, which found a decline in Bush's approval numbers.

The poll, based on interviews with 1,001 adult Americans, including 562 likely voters, was conducted in the days after the New Hampshire primary.

The poll underscores both Kerry's momentum after his wins in New Hampshire and Iowa, and increased favorability among Democrats in general as they dominate political news with their primaries and steady criticism of Bush.

When the 562 likely voters were asked for their choice from a Bush v. Kerry race, 53 percent of those picked Kerry, and 46 percent favored Bush.

When that same group was asked to pick between Edwards and Bush, the numbers were 49 percent for Edwards and 48 percent for Bush. With a Bush/Clark face-off, Bush was favored by 50 percent of those surveyed and Clark, 47 percent.

Howard Dean, the onetime front-runner in the Democratic field, had a poorer showing against Bush, 45 percent to 52 percent for the incumbent.

The question of choice for president among likely voters had a sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The margin or error was different for other questions, as some questions were posed to likely voters, others to just Democrats and others to all adults surveyed.

Kerry was the overwhelming choice of registered Democrats for the presidential nomination. Support for Kerry as the Democratic nominee stood at 49 percent, compared to 14 percent for Dean and 13 percent for Edwards. The other Democratic candidates were in the single digits.

The poll showed Bush's job approval rating at 49 percent among all the adults surveyed, the first time since he became president that his job approval has dipped below 50 percent. A month ago his rating was at 60 percent, as he enjoyed a spike in approval after the capture of Saddam Hussein.

A majority of those polled now say they disapprove of Bush's handing of the economy, foreign affairs, the situation in Iraq and health care. The poll also showed the nation evenly divided -- 49 percent to 49 percent -- on the question of whether it was worth going to war in Iraq, marking the first time approval of the war has dropped below 50 percent.

However, a majority of those polled -- 54 percent -- said they do not believe Bush deliberately misled the country on whether Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, while 43 percent said they believe there was deception.
Despite the apparent rising fortunes of Democrats, the poll showed Bush enjoyed advantages over his rivals in several areas.

For example Bush was seen as a stronger leader than Kerry -- 53 percent to 39 percent --and, despite Kerry's military service in Vietnam, more patriotic than the senator from Massachusetts, 49 percent to 34 percent.

And,on the question of Iraq, more Americans trusted Bush than Kerry, 50 percent to 44 percent.

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When that same group was asked to pick between Edwards and Bush, the numbers were 49 percent for Edwards and 48 percent for Bush.

It seems that Edwards has good chances too!

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

A majority of those polled now say they disapprove of Bush's handing of the economy, foreign affairs, the situation in Iraq and health care.

Sounds that Democrats are strong on domestic issues and Bush can't celebrate with foreign affairs.  

¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨
However, a majority of those polled -- 54 percent -- said they do not believe Bush deliberately misled the country on whether Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, while 43 percent said they believe there was deception.

43 percent sounds very high! Bush is nevertheless the President of the United States!

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But.

On the question of Iraq, more Americans trusted Bush than Kerry, 50 percent to 44 percent.

[opebo]

For now.  Its not encouraging, but I guess Bush still has time to pull it back up.  He needs to start campaigning though.  I think you see in these polls Bush's low point - 46-48%.  I think 48% is more realistic - what he got last time.  The funny thing is he could actually win with this figure.

[Huckleberry Finn]

It would be interesting to see how many states Kerry could win with such result. 53-46 is pretty landslide. I think that with this kind of result Kerry could win states like Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Colorado, Arizona and even North Caroline, if Edwards will be chosen as VP candidate.

But there is over half year to November and I think we will see very different numbers during to year.

[Gustaf]

If you look at trends, is obvious that Bush is losing support.

There are 2 major political events left: the Democratic primaries/convention/nomination and the campaigns. The former will benefit the Dem nominee (Kerry) and the latter will help Bush.

[Nym90]

Well, you forgot about a couple major events--the GOP convention, which will help Bush, and the debates, which are anyone's guess, though Kerry did an excellent job by all accounts debating Bill Weld in 1996. And I don't see any particular reason to believe that the campaign will necessarily help Bush, what is your reasoning for this?

[Gustaf]

Well, you forgot about a couple major events--the GOP convention, which will help Bush, and the debates, which are anyone's guess, though Kerry did an excellent job by all accounts debating Bill Weld in 1996. And I don't see any particular reason to believe that the campaign will necessarily help Bush, what is your reasoning for this?

Well, I didn't attach a lot of impact to the convention of the incumbent, but if you think it will make a difference, then OK. The debates, well I kind of included them in the general campaign, but I agree that they compose an individual factor.

I was basing it on Bush having more money and, I think, a better campaign machine, but I don't think his advantage has to be huge.

[opebo]

Well, you forgot about a couple major events--the GOP convention, which will help Bush, and the debates, which are anyone's guess, though Kerry did an excellent job by all accounts debating Bill Weld in 1996. And I don't see any particular reason to believe that the campaign will necessarily help Bush, what is your reasoning for this?

The debates will help Bush because he is likeable - Kerry is not as unlikeable as Gore but very nearly so.

[© tweed]

The debates will help Bush because he is likeable - Kerry is not as unlikeable as Gore but very nearly so.

I disagree.  I don't think Bush is dumb, but I do think Kerry is smarter and that will be evident in the debates.

[zachman]

      Remember this; Kerry is the comeback kid. He was  behind Bill Weld in Kerry's reelection campaign until about a week before the election. He then won by a strong margin. Can Kerry finish in the same way he always does?

[TheWildCard]

Well you have to remember this is the polls with the democrats trying to attack Bush every chance they get while the White House has yet to fire a shot so to speak.

In a debate with Kerry I'd expect Kerry to come off as a know it all bully like Gore did and that doesn't help him too much.

[Gustaf]

Well you have to remember this is the polls with the democrats trying to attack Bush every chance they get while the White House has yet to fire a shot so to speak.

In a debate with Kerry I'd expect Kerry to come off as a know it all bully like Gore did and that doesn't help him too much.

Being knowledgeable might not always be good, that's true.

[Beet]

The Democrats have spent $20 million or so to get the boost they have had. Bush is hoarding his $200 million war chest to be unleashed as we move into the year and he knows who his opponent will be.

[NHPolitico]

Kerry leads Bush in new poll
Bush's approval numbers dip


Sen. John Kerry leads President Bush in a new poll.

(CNN) -- Sen. John Kerry, the front-runner among Democrats vying for their party's presidential nomination, leads President Bush in a head-to-head matchup, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Monday.

Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina and retired Gen. Wesley Clark also emerge as formidable opponents, according to hypothetical matchups in the poll, which found a decline in Bush's approval numbers.

The poll, based on interviews with 1,001 adult Americans, including 562 likely voters, was conducted in the days after the New Hampshire primary.

The poll underscores both Kerry's momentum after his wins in New Hampshire and Iowa, and increased favorability among Democrats in general as they dominate political news with their primaries and steady criticism of Bush.

When the 562 likely voters were asked for their choice from a Bush v. Kerry race, 53 percent of those picked Kerry, and 46 percent favored Bush.

When that same group was asked to pick between Edwards and Bush, the numbers were 49 percent for Edwards and 48 percent for Bush. With a Bush/Clark face-off, Bush was favored by 50 percent of those surveyed and Clark, 47 percent.

Howard Dean, the onetime front-runner in the Democratic field, had a poorer showing against Bush, 45 percent to 52 percent for the incumbent.

The question of choice for president among likely voters had a sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The margin or error was different for other questions, as some questions were posed to likely voters, others to just Democrats and others to all adults surveyed.

Kerry was the overwhelming choice of registered Democrats for the presidential nomination. Support for Kerry as the Democratic nominee stood at 49 percent, compared to 14 percent for Dean and 13 percent for Edwards. The other Democratic candidates were in the single digits.

The poll showed Bush's job approval rating at 49 percent among all the adults surveyed, the first time since he became president that his job approval has dipped below 50 percent. A month ago his rating was at 60 percent, as he enjoyed a spike in approval after the capture of Saddam Hussein.

A majority of those polled now say they disapprove of Bush's handing of the economy, foreign affairs, the situation in Iraq and health care. The poll also showed the nation evenly divided -- 49 percent to 49 percent -- on the question of whether it was worth going to war in Iraq, marking the first time approval of the war has dropped below 50 percent.

However, a majority of those polled -- 54 percent -- said they do not believe Bush deliberately misled the country on whether Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, while 43 percent said they believe there was deception.
Despite the apparent rising fortunes of Democrats, the poll showed Bush enjoyed advantages over his rivals in several areas.

For example Bush was seen as a stronger leader than Kerry -- 53 percent to 39 percent --and, despite Kerry's military service in Vietnam, more patriotic than the senator from Massachusetts, 49 percent to 34 percent.

And,on the question of Iraq, more Americans trusted Bush than Kerry, 50 percent to 44 percent.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

When that same group was asked to pick between Edwards and Bush, the numbers were 49 percent for Edwards and 48 percent for Bush.

It seems that Edwards has good chances too!

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

A majority of those polled now say they disapprove of Bush's handing of the economy, foreign affairs, the situation in Iraq and health care.

Sounds that Democrats are strong on domestic issues and Bush can't celebrate with foreign affairs.  

¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨
However, a majority of those polled -- 54 percent -- said they do not believe Bush deliberately misled the country on whether Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, while 43 percent said they believe there was deception.

43 percent sounds very high! Bush is nevertheless the President of the United States!

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

But.

On the question of Iraq, more Americans trusted Bush than Kerry, 50 percent to 44 percent.

If Bush doesn't turn around his job approval ratings, Kerry will win.  Hell, if Jake Delhomme can pull a half-dozen Hail Mary's out of his ass like he did Sunday night, Kerry can beat Bush.

[jravnsbo]

good right before the dems vote again and so they'll think Kerry is most electable!

Bush has been getting bad news and attacks for weeks.

Plus when he starts to campaign then I might care about polls, plus Kerry or edwards  or whoever has to be nominee before I care too.

[Nym90]

It's not true that Bush hasn't been heard from lately. There was a little thing called the State of the Union address 2 weeks ago, and Bush got zero bounce out of that. That had the potential for a lot more impact nationally than Bush would have gotten by campaigning.

Gustaf--The convention of the incumbent party does usually provide a bounce, yes. Maybe not nearly as much as the convention of the party out of power since the challenger is not as well known beforehand and thus gets a boost in name ID as well, but the incumbents have historically gotten a decent boost from their conventions too.

[NHPolitico]

It's not true that Bush hasn't been heard from lately. There was a little thing called the State of the Union address 2 weeks ago, and Bush got zero bounce out of that. That had the potential for a lot more impact nationally than Bush would have gotten by campaigning.

Gustaf--The convention of the incumbent party does usually provide a bounce, yes. Maybe not nearly as much as the convention of the party out of power since the challenger is not as well known beforehand and thus gets a boost in name ID as well, but the incumbents have historically gotten a decent boost from their conventions too.

I think Bush gets a boost from NYC if they promote people like Arnold and Rudy.  Bush has to get some Democrat votes to win.  He has to have some Bush Democrats and he needs moderate faces to do that. He can't just get Republicans and Independents.

[opebo]

Speaking of Bush Democrats I hope they use Zell Miller to campaign for Bush in the general.  Bush needs no help in the South but I think Zell would go over well in Missouri and Ohio.

[Reaganfan]

Remember these polls on Bush losing mean nothing. Polls said in 1984 that Mondale was ahead of Reagan. Reagan won almost all 50 states. Also, in 1988 polls showed Dukakis well ahead of Bush in the polls. These polls mean nothing. I am sticking to a sweep for President George W. Bush.

[© tweed]

Remember these polls on Bush losing mean nothing. Polls said in 1984 that Mondale was ahead of Reagan. Reagan won almost all 50 states.

Mondale never lead Reagan in the calendar year of 1984 in Gallup polls.

[Gustaf]

It's not true that Bush hasn't been heard from lately. There was a little thing called the State of the Union address 2 weeks ago, and Bush got zero bounce out of that. That had the potential for a lot more impact nationally than Bush would have gotten by campaigning.

Gustaf--The convention of the incumbent party does usually provide a bounce, yes. Maybe not nearly as much as the convention of the party out of power since the challenger is not as well known beforehand and thus gets a boost in name ID as well, but the incumbents have historically gotten a decent boost from their conventions too.

OK, then, I accept that I am wrong.

[zachman]

Bush has no support, I think outside of the republican base. He has to motivate that base.

[© tweed]

Bush has no support, I think outside of the republican base. He has to motivate that base.

That's not true.

[Nym90]

Remember these polls on Bush losing mean nothing. Polls said in 1984 that Mondale was ahead of Reagan. Reagan won almost all 50 states.

Mondale never lead Reagan in the calendar year of 1984 in Gallup polls.

Not only that, but if Bush does beat Kerry, it would mark the first time since 1948 that an incumbent president came from behind to win reelection after having trailed in ANY Gallup poll at any point over the course of the election year.

Not only Reagan in 1984, but also Clinton in 1996, Nixon in 1972, Johnson in 1964, and Eisenhower in 1956 all led their eventual November opponent in every single Gallup poll for the entire year of the election.

That's not necessarily all that relevant, but it's still something to ponder.

[© tweed]

Remember these polls on Bush losing mean nothing. Polls said in 1984 that Mondale was ahead of Reagan. Reagan won almost all 50 states.

Mondale never lead Reagan in the calendar year of 1984 in Gallup polls.

Not only that, but if Bush does beat Kerry, it would mark the first time since 1948 that an incumbent president came from behind to win reelection after having trailed in ANY Gallup poll at any point over the course of the election year.

Not only Reagan in 1984, but also Clinton in 1996, Nixon in 1972, Johnson in 1964, and Eisenhower in 1956 all led their eventual November opponent in every single Gallup poll for the entire year of the election.

That's not necessarily all that relevant, but it's still something to ponder.

It shows that Gallup is the most accurate.

[Nym90]

Indeed, I would agree with that. What I meant was that it doesn't mean that Bush is guaranteed to lose or anything, since every race is unique, but it's still a clear cause of concern for Bush.