Trump announces in early February 2023 that he will not run for president, citing health concerns. He refuses to endorse. This does not mean that Republican candidates repudiate him. Much like how they actually were, they attempt to ignore him. Binkley, Elder, Johnson, Suarez, and Hurd are more or less non-factors in the campaign, aside from brief surges in polling and internet hype.
Jan 15 - Burgmentum continues and Doug Burgum wins the Iowa caucuses in an upset. This does not mean he is a frontrunner, though his star has begun to rise. Mike Pence is the big loser of this contest and he drops out, reasoning that if he cannot win over Iowan evangelicals he cannot win over enough voters to win the primaries.
Jan 23 - Chris Christie wins New Hampshire. He campaigns as a moderate maverick and because Trump is not running, he is quieter on that issue. Again, this does not mean he is a frontrunner. Ramaswamy does well in the state, garnering votes from secular conservatives.
Feb 6-8 - The Nevada caucus/primary situation is confusing. Haley wins the non-binding primary while DeSantis wins the caucus and gets the delegates. No one can really claim victory and this does not seriously impact the race.
Feb 24 - Nikki Haley wins the South Carolina primary in a three-way race against Scott and DeSantis. Haley's star has risen throughout the campaign. Tim Scott's lead in endorsements in the state changes nothing and Haley wins in something of an upset. Scott stays in the race, arguing that he came close to winning and that counts for something.
Feb 27-Mar 2 - Like in Nevada, voting on two dates in Michigan means no candidate is able to declare victory. DeSantis receives the votes and the delegates, but is again unable to really claim victory. Held in the same period are the Idaho and Missouri caucuses. Burgum wins Missouri while DeSantis wins Idaho. Burgum's victory is an upset over DeSantis and he wins on the back of evangelicals. High hopes are set for Burgum in the upcoming races.
Mar 3.- Nikki Haley declared the winner of the DC primary. Her detractors say this means the swamp is behind her.
Mar 4-Fresh off his win in Missouri, Burgum sweeps the North Dakota caucus.
Mar 5 - Super Tuesday. The big winners are DeSantis and Haley. Haley performs best along the coasts and in Utah. This is the last gasp of the Scott, Christie, and Burgum campaigns. Scott picks up a victory in the Alaska primary but wins nowhere else. Burgum wins several counties in western states and in Texas and though he has to drop out, he is talked of as a potential future candidate. All three drop out afterward. Burgum and Christie endorse Haley while Scott endorses no one. Rumors swirl that he might endorse DeSantis and they may form a unified ticket but nothing happens.
Mar 12 - Haley wins Georgia and Hawaii. DeSantis - Mississippi, Washington. They seem evenly matched.
Mar 19 - A big day for DeSantis who wins Florida, Arizona, Illinois, and Ohio. Haley wins Kansas, partially through Burgum's endorsement.
Mar 23 - Haley wins in Louisiana despite having fewer endorsements. Clearly, she's popular with the electorate. Trump remains silent.
Apr 2 - Haley sweeps the northeast and Wisconsin. This is framed in the media as a serious loss for DeSantis.
April 18-20 - DeSantis wins Wyoming.
April 23 - Haley wins Pennsylvania.
May 7 - Haley very narrowly wins Indiana due to support from the Burgum camp and (unofficially) Pence. DeSantis vows to fight on to the convention
May 14 - Haley: Maryland, Nebraska. DeSantis: West Virginia.
May 21 - DeSantis wins Kentucky, Haley wins Oregon. Several days later, DeSantis announces he is dropping out.
Jun 4 - Haley sweeps Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
July 2024 - Haley and Burgum are announced as the republican ticket. Burgum's focus on domestic policy balances Haley's knowledge of foreign affairs.
November 2024 - Haley/Burgum beat Biden/Harris and Kennedy/Gabbard.
