Rate Maine's 2nd CD

[Woody]

In relation to the poll bellow. Golden's likely opponent seems to be state rep. and race car driver Austin Theriault. Will the Trump coattails, flip-flop on guns, and seemingly decent opponent finally end his stint in Congress?

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1745547780456628716

[Tekken_Guy]

Lean D. Golden has a lot of crossover appeal and there's a strong possibility Theriault doesn't make it out of the primary. Also Trump is probably going to win this by single digits still.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Golden is looking entrenched.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Tossup. This won't be an easy year for Golden, as I think Trump will win Maine's 2nd by double digits.

[progressive85]

Whether he wins or loses in ME-2, I think he will be the D candidate to challenge Susan Collins for the whole state's Senate seat in 2026 if Donald Trump wins.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Voted likely R by mistake think it was for President.

I don't see Golden losing

[MT Treasurer]

Golden won by <20k votes in an absolutely terrible year for ME Republicans with very favorable turnout dynamics — he’s a strong opponent but by no means unbeatable. Theriault is also the kind of candidate who can ride a red wave in this district (Trump +>10) to victory. Toss-up/Tilt R if the presidential race is close, at least Lean R if Trump wins decisively.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lean D

[xavier110]

I’d say Tilt R given Trump will win by more than last time here

[Tekken_Guy]

I’d say Tilt R given Trump will win by more than last time here

Golden won by 6 with Trump on the ballot, he can easily do so again.

[oldtimer]

I’d say Tilt R given Trump will win by more than last time here

Golden won by 6 with Trump on the ballot, he can easily do so again.

The problem for Golden is that Maine is not New Hampshire yet.

If Trump wins his district by that much, Golden ought to lose.

[Tekken_Guy]

I’d say Tilt R given Trump will win by more than last time here

Golden won by 6 with Trump on the ballot, he can easily do so again.

The problem for Golden is that Maine is not New Hampshire yet.

If Trump wins his district by that much, Golden ought to lose.

Yeah, Golden probably loses if Trump wins ME-02 by 14, but he almost certainly will not be winning it by that much.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think people are overstating by how much ME-02 could/will shift right Presidentially.

While it is true it's a mostly rural district that swung pretty hard right federally between 2012 and 2016 Pres, it's still ultimately in the northeast and hasn't swung as hard as otherwise demographically similar rural districts in the midwest, and there are some areas along the coast and smaller towns where things seem decently optimistic for Dems in the long run.

Also not that it matters a ton, but the new ME-02 config shifts the district about a point left thanks to ME-02 taking in Augusta, so under this config, Golden prolly would've won by 7-8% in 2020.

My guess would be Trump + 8, Golden + 4. Lean D unless Golden starts having a big scandal or smtg.

[smoltchanov]

One of the very few really competitive districts. The best candidate here is a moderate, but few of them remains  in both parties (though Golden is one of them). With Golden - tilt D, without him - leans R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean D I doubt that the last ME 2 poll is accurate

[Spectator]

Biden’s not only up 1 in Maine if he’s up double digits in NH. Let’s use our brains here people.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Biden’s not only up 1 in Maine if he’s up double digits in NH. Let’s use our brains here people.

It's not that surprising. Outside of Portland, NH is much more college educated and suburban than ME. While NH has historically done better, I believe that Biden will be able to salvage more voters than he will in ME.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Pure tossup but closer to D than R.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Unfortunately, Golden's response to the Lewiston mass shooting will likely put him in more danger than ever before. Add in a sexy NASCAR driver and he's in big trouble. But I wouldn't write him off yet.

[MT Treasurer]

Unfortunately, Golden's response to the Lewiston mass shooting will likely put him in more danger than ever before. Add in a sexy NASCAR driver and he's in big trouble. But I wouldn't write him off yet.

I love it, Bernie Derangement.. Republicans are finally realizing what it takes to beat Golden at his own game.

Also glad they learned actual lessons from KY-GOV rather than buying into the media's "Andy Beshear won women big because of Dobbs, Dobbs, Dobbs" talking point.   

[oldtimer]

Biden’s not only up 1 in Maine if he’s up double digits in NH. Let’s use our brains here people.

N.H. borders Vermont, it's inevitable that at some point it just becomes East Vermont.

Remember "like Vermont so goes N.H." or something like that from before the mid 90's ?

[Tekken_Guy]

Unfortunately, Golden's response to the Lewiston mass shooting will likely put him in more danger than ever before. Add in a sexy NASCAR driver and he's in big trouble. But I wouldn't write him off yet.

I think the opposite actually, because the tragedy hit home for a lot of people gun control is actually more popular than it used to be in the district.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Biden’s not only up 1 in Maine if he’s up double digits in NH. Let’s use our brains here people.

N.H. borders Vermont, it's inevitable that at some point it just becomes East Vermont.

Remember "like Vermont so goes N.H." or something like that from before the mid 90's ?

Not true at all. Vermontification only spreads about one to two towns east of the CT river into NH and then it gives way. And the population bases in NH are the furthest you can get from VT if you do think that VT progressivism will inevitably spread like a disease into rural NH.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Unfortunately, Golden's response to the Lewiston mass shooting will likely put him in more danger than ever before. Add in a sexy NASCAR driver and he's in big trouble. But I wouldn't write him off yet.

I love it, Bernie Derangement.. Republicans are finally realizing what it takes to beat Golden at his own game.

Also glad they learned actual lessons from KY-GOV rather than buying into the media's "Andy Beshear won women big because of Dobbs, Dobbs, Dobbs" talking point.   

People don't give enough credit to the fact that a candidate's attractive appearance can swing some voters. It's absolutely true. It doesn't allow for very serious political analysis, but sometimes voters are superficial like that.

Luckily Golden counteracts this by being irresistibly sexy himself.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean D there hasn't been 1 poll with King on the ballot and I doubt Golden Approval is 29 percent if a state flips it's ME 2 NC and OH in that order not TX or FL