Allan Lichtman's classification of charismatic presidential candidates

[TML]

Based on information I can find from his publications, specifically his (retroactive) keys prediction record dating back to 1860, it appears that Allan Lichtman has considered the following presidential candidates to be charismatic:

Ulysses S. Grant
James G. Blaine
William Jennings Bryan (In 1896 and 1900, but not in 1908)
Theodore Roosevelt
Franklin D. Roosevelt
Dwight D. Eisenhower
John F. Kennedy
Ronald Reagan
Barack Obama (In 2008, but not in 2012)

Leaving aside your opinions of his "keys" system overall, do you agree with his classification of the aforementioned people as the only "charismatic" presidential candidates in history since 1860?

[Alben Barkley]

James G. Blaine is obviously the headscratcher on the list. "The continental liar from the state of Maine," the former Secretary of State who had to deal with dubious charges of corruption, most comparable to Hillary Clinton of any other presidential candidate, was "charismatic?"

Also Ulysses S. Grant I understand fits his "war hero" definition for it, but in terms of his actual personality he was actually known to be quite reserved and somewhat awkward. This is true to a lesser extent of Eisenhower as well.

Also I'd put Bill Clinton as charismatic for sure. MAYBE Harry Truman as well. It was his personality and stump speeches after all which arguably propelled him over Dewey.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What's his reasoning for Blaine? The only stand out odd one on the list.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Only two candidates (one Democrat and one Republican) who never won a presidential election on the list. Bryan is a pretty obvious choice, but I'd put Willkie rather than Blaine as the Republican. Goldwater might even make more sense as a choice.

[SWE]

James G. Blaine is obviously the headscratcher on the list. "The continental liar from the state of Maine," the former Secretary of State who had to deal with dubious charges of corruption, most comparable to Hillary Clinton of any other presidential candidate, was "charismatic?"

Also Ulysses S. Grant I understand fits his "war hero" definition for it, but in terms of his actual personality he was actually known to be quite reserved and somewhat awkward. This is true to a lesser extent of Eisenhower as well.

Also I'd put Bill Clinton as charismatic for sure. MAYBE Harry Truman as well. It was his personality and stump speeches after all which arguably propelled him over Dewey.

His definition is "charismatic or a national hero," so Ike and Grant don't need to be remotely charismatic to qualify, satisfying either/or is good enough.

His rationale for excluding Clinton is that he had somewhat of a sleazy reputation and inspired quite a bit of hate from the other side, which undercut his natural speaking and communicating abilities, which I guess is fair enough, but makes his inclusion of Blaine even more baffling. Really highlights the inherent subjectivity in this model

[Del Tachi]

"Charisma" is a weaselly and non-specific quality that it could be applied to anybody.  You could easily make the argument that the more charismatic candidate always wins.

[Vosem]

What's his reasoning for Blaine? The only stand out odd one on the list.

Utterly bizarre because it isn't even like he's trying to massage the data -- Blaine lost, you don't have to give him extra keys! And if there was a notably charismatic presidential candidate from that era, it was probably Grover Cleveland, whose biography famously describes him (I've seen this quoted more than once) as enjoying "the easygoing sociability of hotel lobbies and saloons".) Given how close 1884 was, you could probably argue with a straight face that charisma won the election for Cleveland!

I think given the history of the 1948 campaign I'd agree with Alben that Truman deserves to be called charismatic; in Truman speeches I've watched he does not necessarily seem very high-energy or bombastic but that's probably just me back-projecting Trump-era norms onto the 1940s when they would've been (IMO correctly) interpreted as ridiculous.

[Vice President Christian Man]

I'd add Trump & George Wallace to that list, maybe Goldwater as well. Also while Bill Clinton & W. Bush weren't charismatic in a traditional sense, they had a folksy appeal that shouldn't be forgotten.

[Alben Barkley]

I'd add Trump & George Wallace to that list, maybe Goldwater as well. Also while Bill Clinton & W. Bush weren't charismatic in a traditional sense, they had a folksy appeal that shouldn't be forgotten.

If having a sleazy/controversial reputation and attracting lots of hate from the other side was his rationale for excluding Bill Clinton, it applies doubly so to all of Trump, Wallace, and Goldwater. Also I'd say Bill Clinton is more "charismatic in a traditional sense" than any of them, and some he listed as well (still laughing at Blaine -- who ALSO had a scandalous reputation while as far as I know being far less charismatic otherwise), whereas I'd agree with your description of Dubya as more "folksy" than "charismatic."

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

"Charisma" is a weaselly and non-specific quality that it could be applied to anybody.  You could easily make the argument that the more charismatic candidate always wins.

This is a reasonable point. I wouldn't be surprised if there is some article in some archive somewhere (understandably buried away) from 1987 or 1988 that describes Dukakis as 'charismatic'.