MI-SEN: Who wins?

[SnowLabrador]

In my mind, it'll be Craig. Slotkin is correct to worry that Biden will drag her under, but she isn't correct to not push for him to step aside.

[ShadowRocket]

Slotkin.  Craig isn't going to be the nominee and Mike Rogers is old news.

[Tekken_Guy]

Slotkin either way, but Mike Rogers will be the nominee.

[Miked0920]

Id say Slotkin, but by only a little bit somewhere between 0.5-3%. To me James Craig would be the weakest candidate the GOP could put up against her, Meijer would probably be the strongest but he has the smallest and least chance of making it through the primary. I would as of now give this race somewhere between a Tilt Dem and Lean Dem ranking. time will tell though.

[oldtimer]

If Trump wins Michican the senate seat likely also flips.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Has Craig even gotten on the Republican ballot yet?

[Xing]

Slotkin. Even if Trump manages to win Michigan (much more of an if than some here seem to believe), I doubt it'll be by enough to pull the Republican nominee over the finish line unless Slotkin runs a bad campaign.

[Del Tachi]

Slotkin. Even if Trump manages to win Michigan (much more of an if than some here seem to believe), I doubt it'll be by enough to pull the Republican nominee over the finish line unless Slotkin runs a bad campaign.

Presidential/senate split results are now seem incredibly rare (only one has happened since 2016) but this race will be a good test of exactly how polarized we've become.  Slotkin isn't an incumbent so the presidential ballot should matter more for her race than it would for Brown or Tester, even if they all win (lose). 

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I think this might be the only state this year where Republicans can win the senate race without winning the Presidential Race

[Xing]

Slotkin. Even if Trump manages to win Michigan (much more of an if than some here seem to believe), I doubt it'll be by enough to pull the Republican nominee over the finish line unless Slotkin runs a bad campaign.

Presidential/senate split results are now seem incredibly rare (only one has happened since 2016) but this race will be a good test of exactly how polarized we've become.  Slotkin isn't an incumbent so the presidential ballot should matter more for her race than it would for Brown or Tester, even if they all win (lose). 

They are rare, but it wouldn't take much ticket-splitting to get a split result in the case of a very close race at the presidential level.

[progressive85]

This is a pure tossup and I think it would even favor Team Red if John James were to run.  It's going to be very close.

MI is where a lot of close bellwether races will be in 2024, aside from POTUS there are those two open D seats (Slotkin and Kildee) that are highly competitive.

MI 7 (the Slotkin seat) looks like it will be between Tom Barrett (R) vs. Curtis Hertel, Jr. (D).

[Roll Roons]

This is a pure tossup and I think it would even favor Team Red if John James were to run.  It's going to be very close.

MI is where a lot of close bellwether races will be in 2024, aside from POTUS there are those two open D seats (Slotkin and Kildee) that are highly competitive.

MI 7 (the Slotkin seat) looks like it will be between Tom Barrett (R) vs. Curtis Hertel, Jr. (D).

James isn't running for Senate. He himself has a very competitive House seat to defend.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This is a pure tossup and I think it would even favor Team Red if John James were to run.  It's going to be very close.

MI is where a lot of close bellwether races will be in 2024, aside from POTUS there are those two open D seats (Slotkin and Kildee) that are highly competitive.

MI 7 (the Slotkin seat) looks like it will be between Tom Barrett (R) vs. Curtis Hertel, Jr. (D).

James isn't running for Senate. He himself has a very competitive House seat to defend.

He wouldn't even be that good. He's ran two times already, people would be tired of him running for senate

[MT Treasurer]

I’d say Toss-up/Tilt R at the moment, but Slotkin could certainly win in November. While she’s more likely than not to outperform Biden, it might not be enough if Biden’s losing all/nearly all the swing states.

I’d probably rather have Craig than Rogers here, but I don’t think either would be clearly favored or completely DOA in a GE.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Snowlabrador threaf