🇨🇦 2024 Canadian by-elections

[King of Kensington]

Basically the NDP signed a non-enforceable "deal" that asked the Liberals to implement their platform.

[CumbrianLefty]

But its not doing them many favours now, is surely the point.

[King of Kensington]

It's certainly not! It was a very poor decision.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I didn't think the perception of being "enablers" would really hurt the NDP in a riding like St. Paul's.  But it looks like it did.

Yes, but I think it's more than just being "enablers", it's the lack of any clear message at all, which IMO is reflective of the lack of professionalism or a knack for realpolitik in the federal NDP (I say federal because provincial NDPs out west are some of the most politically-competent parties in Canada right now). The Conservatives are very direct in their messaging. We all know about Poilievre's "noun the verb" slogans. Tacky and vague as it may be, it works because it gives voters a sense of certainty at a time when there's a lot of uncertainty and anxiety in the country.

So coming back to the NDP, they're not direct with voters. While the Liberals have often been wishy-washy, the NDP has the opposite problem, they're trying to do two things at once. Singh is always putting out messaging about how the Liberals are hurting Canadians, giving all our money to greedy capitalists while Canadians starve, that kind of thing. Yet it's lost on absolutely no one that this government that they claim is hurting us, is only in power, because of them! So the argument seems to be "Liberals are awful, but Conservatives are more awful, so we support the Liberals". Yeah. "Liberals aren't perfect but better than Tories" is the sentiment that gets Liberals elected, not New Democrats.

The NDP dug themselves into this hole by entering the C&S agreement, and honestly I don't even know what they can do to dig out of it. But at the very least, they need to understand that trying to have it both ways at a time of broad public discontent just pisses everyone off.

Tbh not sure there is really any way out until they join the Liberals in opposition.

Which might get Singh to finally call it a day too - which can only help.

Yeah, probably. Backing out from the C&S agreement probably won't do anything at this point. Who replaces Singh will be massive, but considering how the NDP seem so resigned to the mediocrity of their current leader, I'm not sure they can be trusted to replace him with someone better.

[Oryxslayer]

Isn’t the turnout really high for a game 7 Stanley cup day?

I think the large number of advance poll voters suggests people know they could/would have other priorities (job -> potential then locked-in game 7) but still were aware of the overall significance of he contest.

[DL]

It's certainly not! It was a very poor decision.

The alternative for the NDP would have been forcing early election after early election after early election until someone gets a majority. One could argue that the deal with the Liberals has hurt the Liberals way more than it has hurt the NDP - Liberal support has collapsed since the 2021 election while NDP support is about where it was in 2021. This is nothing like what happened to the Lib Dems in the UK in 2015 when they dropped to single digits and were wiped out.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It's certainly not! It was a very poor decision.

The alternative for the NDP would have been forcing early election after early election after early election until someone gets a majority. One could argue that the deal with the Liberals has hurt the Liberals way more than it has hurt the NDP - Liberal support has collapsed since the 2021 election while NDP support is about where it was in 2021. This is nothing like what happened to the Lib Dems in the UK in 2015 when they dropped to single digits and were wiped out.

That's not necessarily true. Hung parliaments aren't really a thing in Canada, minority governments can usually function for 2-3 years without any coalition or quasi-coalition. As evidenced by none other than Trudeau himself, and Harper before him, and Martin before him. And in Trudeau's case, he didn't even lose confidence of the house. Dissolving that parliament was his call, not the opposition's.

As for your other point, sure the NDP is maintaining their 2021 support according to the polls. But one, they're not making any gains whatsoever, any dip in LPC support is correlating almost 1:1 with CPC gains. And two, that's what the polls are saying, byelections tell us quite a different story where the NDP is also losing support. They lost support in all kinds of ridings - urban, suburban, rural, Francophone, Anglophone, you name it. Sure the NDP has structural disadvantages in byelections. But at the end of the day, what matters more in politics, telephone surveys or actual elections? I'm inclined to think it's the latter.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Signing off for now, but I'll just leave y'all with this:

https://twitter.com/RealAlbanianPat/status/1805629794454794474

Is this an accurate way of predicting the next election? No. Does it illustrate just how bad last night was for everyone other than CPC? Absolutely.

[lfromnj]

Also I assume the incumbent in Mount Royal has enough local strength to hold on .

[DL]

And two, that's what the polls are saying, byelections tell us quite a different story where the NDP is also losing support. They lost support in all kinds of ridings - urban, suburban, rural, Francophone, Anglophone, you name it. Sure the NDP has structural disadvantages in byelections. But at the end of the day, what matters more in politics, telephone surveys or actual elections? I'm inclined to think it's the latter.

None of the byelections that have taken place since the 2021 have been in seats where the NDP has ever been remotely competitive. It will be a better test to see what happens in Elmwood-Transcona, Halifax and Lasalle-Emard-Verdun. In byelections, people who typically vote for parties that are locally uncompetitive tend to stay home.

Ultimately, having any influence whatsoever on government policy is the name of the game. Sure the NDP could have been totally obstructionist during this minority, screamed and yelled a lot, played weekly games of Russian roulette with the fate of the government and accomplished nothing - and maybe that would have pleased Tory voters - but to what end. Its a bit like saying the Liberals would be better off if they lost the 2021 election since being in power means you are greater risk of becoming unpopular and losing the subsequent election! The best way for a party to always be popular is never to win an election.  

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Its amusing to see some "Tru-anon" people on twitter trying to say its all the NDP's fault the Liberals lost St. Paul's...I actually wonder if there was a not insignificant number of Liberal voters who voted Tory in the byelection to try to get Trudeau to quit!

This is bringing back memories for me of the 15 federal byelections that Pierre Trudeau called all in the same night when he was at the height of his unpopularity and that were a total bloodbath for the Liberals. They lost Toronto seats like Rosedale, Eglinton, Parkdale and York-Scarborough by massive margins. Bob Rae won Broadview that night for the NDP but the Liberal was a distant third with about 15% of the vote. Of course if Justin wants any consolation he can look to how six months later in May 1979 the Liberals won back some of those seats and held Joe Clark to a minority...and we all know what then happened in 1980!

I read about this recently. The Liberals were demoralized at the start of the 1979 election and their campaign managers, I believe Jim Coutts and Keith Davey (Jim Coutts lost one of those 1978 byelections) kept telling everybody 'we don't need to win this election, just hold the P.Cs to a minority.'

Then, after Pierre Trudeau announced his resignation as leader, they were instrumental in getting him to change his mind.

[DL]

I read about this recently. The Liberals were demoralized at the start of the 1979 election and their campaign managers, I believe Jim Coutts and Keith Davey (Jim Coutts lost one of those 1978 byelections) kept telling everybody 'we don't need to win this election, just hold the P.Cs to a minority.'

No, Jim Coutts did not run in any of the 1978 byelections. There was an infamous byelection in Toronto-Spadina in 1982 when it was thought to be a safe seat. Trudeau appointed the Liberal MP to the senate to create an opening for Coutts so he could be in cabinet. The Dan Heap of the NDP beat him by 200 votes in a stunning upset.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

I read about this recently. The Liberals were demoralized at the start of the 1979 election and their campaign managers, I believe Jim Coutts and Keith Davey (Jim Coutts lost one of those 1978 byelections) kept telling everybody 'we don't need to win this election, just hold the P.Cs to a minority.'

No, Jim Coutts did not run in any of the 1978 byelections. There was an infamous byelection in Toronto-Spadina in 1982 when it was thought to be a safe seat. Trudeau appointed the Liberal MP to the senate to create an opening for Coutts so he could be in cabinet. The Dan Heap of the NDP beat him by 200 votes in a stunning upset.

Oh, okay. Thanks!

[Hatman 🍁]

Isn’t the turnout really high for a game 7 Stanley cup day?

I think the large number of advance poll voters suggests people know they could/would have other priorities (job -> potential then locked-in game 7) but still were aware of the overall significance of he contest.

Also,

A) It's not like the Leafs were in the final and;

B) The game started just half an hour before polls closed. Anyone who wanted to vote could've done so long before the game started.

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

between this and Edmonton losing, it's Trudeauver

[adma]

The Longest Ballot people are to electoral reform what the "Just Stop Oil" people are to climate change activism. Attention seekers latching onto a progressive cause as an excuse to be a nuisance.

Yeah, that's right.  The electoral equivalent of spraypainting Stonehenge or throwing tomato soup on Van Gogh's Sunflowers...

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Hopefully this will encourage Trudeau to resign and Freeland to step-aside, although I doubt that'll ever happen. If Singh ends up going too, all the better, the Canadian Left really needs some new faces and someone willing to fight PP on his own turf... Trudeau is the antithesis of that person.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

And two, that's what the polls are saying, byelections tell us quite a different story where the NDP is also losing support. They lost support in all kinds of ridings - urban, suburban, rural, Francophone, Anglophone, you name it. Sure the NDP has structural disadvantages in byelections. But at the end of the day, what matters more in politics, telephone surveys or actual elections? I'm inclined to think it's the latter.

None of the byelections that have taken place since the 2021 have been in seats where the NDP has ever been remotely competitive. It will be a better test to see what happens in Elmwood-Transcona, Halifax and Lasalle-Emard-Verdun. In byelections, people who typically vote for parties that are locally uncompetitive tend to stay home.

Ultimately, having any influence whatsoever on government policy is the name of the game. Sure the NDP could have been totally obstructionist during this minority, screamed and yelled a lot, played weekly games of Russian roulette with the fate of the government and accomplished nothing - and maybe that would have pleased Tory voters - but to what end. Its a bit like saying the Liberals would be better off if they lost the 2021 election since being in power means you are greater risk of becoming unpopular and losing the subsequent election! The best way for a party to always be popular is never to win an election.  

Fair enough, these byelections haven't really been NDP-favourable. Even LaSalle-Emard isn't that favourable, Halifax and Elmwood are the real tests. That said, I reject the idea that the C&S agreement gave the NDP all that much influence on Liberal policy, at least to the extent that would justify the political hit they took. But I say this with hindsight, and there's no way to test the counterfactual, so we can agree to disagree.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Hopefully this will encourage Trudeau to resign and Freeland to step-aside, although I doubt that'll ever happen. If Singh ends up going too, all the better, the Canadian Left really needs some new faces and someone willing to fight PP on his own turf... Trudeau is the antithesis of that person.

I'm hearing Mark Carney's name a lot...but I've been hearing Mark Carney's name a lot for years now, and nothing has come of it. Conservatives have already started attacking him sporadically, which suggests a bit of fear on their part. And he does have stronger economic credibility than either Trudeau or Poilievre, but largely because of his time as a globetrotting banker, which doesn't necessarily play to the current mood of the Canadian public. He's also never been elected to anything, and a strong candidate on paper isn't necessarily a strong candidate on the hustings - we have no idea how he is on the hustings, because he's literally never done it before.

But considering the weak Liberal bench, he might be their best shot at reversing this tide. Chrystia Freeland certainly won't be it, she has all of Trudeau's weaknesses with none of his strengths. And after Freeland, the Liberal bench gets real weak real fast.

[2952-0-0]

François Philippe Champagne would be a strong candidate. Years in global finance, represents the same seat as Chrétien, has a good track record in standing up against big corporations and attracting foreign investment. And not too associated with Trudeau's personality.

[Holmes]

François Philippe Champagne would be a strong candidate. Years in global finance, represents the same seat as Chrétien, has a good track record in standing up against big corporations and attracting foreign investment. And not too associated with Trudeau's personality.

He quite honestly seems like a mix of Dion and Ignatieff.

[2952-0-0]

He has a completely different vibe than Trudeau. But he can point to a list of solid accomplishments in government that Dion and Ignatieff...or Poilievre... completely lacked. And voters like boring and stiff politicians who can point to accomplishments, like Harper.

[Swalwell was Right (God help us)]

Signing off for now, but I'll just leave y'all with this:

https://twitter.com/RealAlbanianPat/status/1805629794454794474

Is this an accurate way of predicting the next election? No. Does it illustrate just how bad last night was for everyone other than CPC? Absolutely.

The craziest thing about this map is it's still a lower share of seats than Diefenbaker got in '58

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Signing off for now, but I'll just leave y'all with this:

https://twitter.com/RealAlbanianPat/status/1805629794454794474
Is this an accurate way of predicting the next election? No. Does it illustrate just how bad last night was for everyone other than CPC? Absolutely.

The craziest thing about this map is it's still a lower share of seats than Diefenbaker got in '58

Can't beef with Dief the Chief!

[Pericles]

'Supermajority' doesn't actually mean anything in Canada either, right?