🇨🇦 2024 Canadian by-elections

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Liberal MP for Cloverdale-Langley City is resigning his seat to run for the BC NDP in this year's election. Should be a relatively easy CPC pickup.

Jumping off a sinking ship to be a sacrificial lamb? OK

Running for the NDP in Langley-Abbotsford is certainly a choice. 338Canada currently has the NDP at 29% support with a 2% chance of winning. Yet in Cloverdale-Langley City, LPC is projected to get 26% with 0% chance of winning. On top of that there's the uncertainty of whether or not this BC Conservative wave is actually going to last the writ period, and somehow, this might actually be the smarter play for John Aldag.

[DistingFlyer]

Anyway, for those keeping score at home, today is the Pictou West by-election.

After 30 minutes the first polls have come in, with the new Tory candidate doing extremely well so far.

Wasn't quite sure how this would go - in terms of whether the Tory vote would rise or fall, not whether he'd win the seat - as a new candidate replacing a long-standing member will usually see a reduced majority no matter how strong the party's provincewide polling (see the 2019 by-elections). On the other hand, the Tories' poll numbers, both provincial and federal, have been very good indeed lately, and the Tories have shown they can put up a good ground game at by-elections (particularly when hoping to gain a seat, as in 2019, 2020 & 2023).

[DistingFlyer]

Now 21 of 29 polls in, with the Tories getting over 71% of the vote (and the Liberals falling to a poor third).

If these percentages hold, this will be the biggest by-election victory (for any party) since Harold Connolly won Halifax North in 1936 with 79%.

With the Tory & NDP numbers rising (the former more so), and the Liberal vote well down, this does seem fairly reflective of the various parties' current poll standings relative to the last election.

[DistingFlyer]

Pictou West count completed:

Marco MacLeod (PC) - 4159 (72.5%) (+8.9%)
Melinda MacKenzie (NDP) - 949 (16.5%) (+4.2%)
Mary Wooldridge-Elliott (Lib) - 548 (9.6%) (-11.9%)
Clare Brett (GP) - 82 (1.4%) (-0.3%)

Good night for the Tories, while the NDP can take some solace as well; bloody awful for the Grits though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Popular provincial government + unpopular federal government = landslide win.

[DL]

The Nova Scotia Liberals are in free fall with a dreadful leader while the Nova Scotia NDP has a very good leader…watch for the NDP to become the official opposition to the PCs in 2025

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

The Nova Scotia Liberals are in free fall with a dreadful leader while the Nova Scotia NDP has a very good leader…watch for the NDP to become the official opposition to the PCs in 2025

The Nova Scotia Liberal leader being 'dreadful' goes to show you never can tell. In the Yes, Minister television series, they referred to this as 'suck it and see.' When Iain Rankin and the other two ran for Liberal leader in 2021, the comments were along the lines of 'none of the top Liberal cabinet ministers who would make for obvious party leader and Premier are running', and then would get mentioned Kelly Regan, Zach Churchill and sometimes Derek Mombourquette.

[Hatman 🍁]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, the NDP finishing a distant second in a seat they used to hold recently is not that big of a deal. Though agreed, it's a dreadful result for the Liberals.

[DistingFlyer]

The Nova Scotia Liberals are in free fall with a dreadful leader while the Nova Scotia NDP has a very good leader…watch for the NDP to become the official opposition to the PCs in 2025

Could happen even if the Grits edge them out for second in terms of vote share (as happened in 2003, and as happened vis-a-vis the Tories in 1945).

[DL]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, the NDP finishing a distant second in a seat they used to hold recently is not that big of a deal. Though agreed, it's a dreadful result for the Liberals.

Its not just this byelection - also what happened in Preston

[Hatman 🍁]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, the NDP finishing a distant second in a seat they used to hold recently is not that big of a deal. Though agreed, it's a dreadful result for the Liberals.

Its not just this byelection - also what happened in Preston

The NDP lost vote share in Preston, even if they finished ahead of the Liberals. Grasping at straws, really. At least in Pictou their vote share went up.

[DL]

In Preston the NDP vote went down 1% - the Liberal votes went down 20%...it just seems like the bottom is falling out of Liberal support in Nova Scotia - and I think federal Liberal cabinet minister Sean Fraser could be in big trouble in the next federal election - and Pictou is in that federal seat 

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, the Liberals are in big trouble in Nova Scotia everywhere

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I'm hearing that the CPC is running a much stronger ground game in Toronto St. Paul's. But the good thing for LPC is that the NDP isn't going to seriously contest this seat. So in that sense, letting the Tories flex their muscles and superior campaign funding early on is probably a smart play, because with the absence of any other viable centre-left option, a late Liberal push should be enough to turn out just enough ABC voters in this generally left-leaning riding with a low Tory ceiling.

So I still have this as a likely LPC hold, with the caveat that if it isn't a LPC hold, it could very well spell the end of this government, or at least the Prime Minister. Neither Harper nor Ford could flip it in their three majorities, this riding shouldn't be voting Conservative short of a supermajority landslide.

[DL]

If I was a Liberal in St. Paul’s I’d be tempted to vote Tory in the byelection just to get Trudeau to quit!

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

If I was a Liberal in St. Paul’s I’d be tempted to vote Tory in the byelection just to get Trudeau to quit!

Jokes aside, to the extent that any Liberals see Trudeau's resignation as a panacea, look across the pond. Granted, the UK Tories over the past few years have seemed far, far more incompetent than the LPC, and that's a pretty low bar. But even John Turner and Kim Campbell right here in Canada, chosen to revitalize the party following the resignation of an unpopular PM. Leadership changes can often have the exact opposite effect if you choose the successor poorly.

[DL]

There are also cases where a leadership "bait and switch" has worked. For example in Ontario the ridiculously unpopular Dalton McGuinty quit, was succeeded by Kathleen Wynne and she went on to win a majority in 2014. Or the BC Liberals replacing Gordon Campbell with Christy Clark? Or the BC NDP replacing Mike Harcourt with Glen Clark in 1996...I'm sure there are other examples too - but I'm just saying that its false to suggest that replacing an unpopular leader never works.

Actually I just thought of another example, in 1968 the Liberals under Lester Pearson where very unpopular and deemed to be facing certain defeat. Pearson quit, Pierre Trudeau won the leaders, Trudeaumania ensued and the rest is history!

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP aren't even trying in St. Paul's? Ugh. I was going to say they they aren't bothering at all with by-elections anymore, but I am at least hopeful about LaSalle-Emard-Verdun.

Anyway, today is the day of the Baie Verte-Green Bay by-election in NL. The Liberals only won it by 171 votes in 2021, so it'll likely flip to the Tories tonight.

Funnily enough, the Liberals are running a federal Conservative in the race

[CumbrianLefty]

There are also cases where a leadership "bait and switch" has worked. For example in Ontario the ridiculously unpopular Dalton McGuinty quit, was succeeded by Kathleen Wynne and she went on to win a majority in 2014. Or the BC Liberals replacing Gordon Campbell with Christy Clark? Or the BC NDP replacing Mike Harcourt with Glen Clark in 1996...I'm sure there are other examples too - but I'm just saying that its false to suggest that replacing an unpopular leader never works.

Actually I just thought of another example, in 1968 the Liberals under Lester Pearson where very unpopular and deemed to be facing certain defeat. Pearson quit, Pierre Trudeau won the leaders, Trudeaumania ensued and the rest is history!

Probably the stand out example here of it working is Thatcher to Major before the 1992 GE. There was also May to Johnson in 2019, but that was at least as much due to it being a "single issue" election.

[adma]

There are also cases where a leadership "bait and switch" has worked. For example in Ontario the ridiculously unpopular Dalton McGuinty quit, was succeeded by Kathleen Wynne and she went on to win a majority in 2014. Or the BC Liberals replacing Gordon Campbell with Christy Clark? Or the BC NDP replacing Mike Harcourt with Glen Clark in 1996...I'm sure there are other examples too - but I'm just saying that its false to suggest that replacing an unpopular leader never works.

Actually I just thought of another example, in 1968 the Liberals under Lester Pearson where very unpopular and deemed to be facing certain defeat. Pearson quit, Pierre Trudeau won the leaders, Trudeaumania ensued and the rest is history!

Probably the stand out example here of it working is Thatcher to Major before the 1992 GE. There was also May to Johnson in 2019, but that was at least as much due to it being a "single issue" election.

Though Pearson-to-Trudeau and May-to-Johnson were more authentically "substituting a winner" than the other bait-and-switch cases, where the victories were to one extent or another against the grain of conventional wisdom...

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

Looking like a PC pickup in Newfoundland

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The NDP aren't even trying in St. Paul's? Ugh.

I should be clear, I don't actually know that they're "not trying" in St. Paul's, so I'm not suggesting that. But I think it's a very safe guess that the NDP aren't serious contenders in this byelection, and the NDP's byelection strategy this parliament seems to be to only contest seats they have a realistic shot of winning. So I feel very confident in saying the NDP probably aren't going to be serious contenders here.

If they decide to really fight it though (maybe try to piggyback off of Jill Andrew's provincial incumbency), that would make things interesting, and probably help the CPC by not allowing the Liberals to be the ABC vote bank.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Funnily enough, the Liberals are running a federal Conservative in the race

This is what the Liberal candidate had to say in a CBC interview:

"I think Mr. Furey is the man of the hour," Bury told CBC News in a recent interview.

...

Burt said he hasn't hidden his ties to the Conservative Party or his friendship with [CPC MP Clifford] Small. His issue, he said, is with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
"I don't like the way that our prime minister is taking the country, and I think the Liberals need to make a change at the top there."

So it sounds like he's not exactly a fire breathing conservative, more like an ancestral Newfoundland Liberal who's not too happy with Trudeau's LPC. He lost the byelection, but he seems pretty representative of political trends in NL right now.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Really weird thing about Newfoundland politics. Rural-urban polarization is nothing new there, but traditionally it's the rurals that favour Liberals and St. John's favouring Tories, including at the federal level - as recently as 2006 when Harper won the two St. John's seats while losing the 5 rural seats.

To make things even weirder, if I'm not mistaken, the St. John's area is traditionally the Irish Catholic dominated part of the province, while the rest of the island is more protestant and Anglo-Saxon.

So that's urban Irish Catholics favouring Tories, and rural WASPs favouring Liberals. This unusual polarization seems to be fading and polarization is heading in a more "normal" direction, i.e. rural right and urban left. But I can't think of any other part of the Anglosphere where the Catholics were traditionally the Tories, and protestants were more anti-Tory.

[adma]

Anyway, the Newf byelection went thusly (i.e. a *real* landslide):

Burt, Owen J (Liberal Party)  1035
Harnett, Riley (New Democratic Party)  96
Paddock, Lin (Progressive Conservative Party)  4271

The NDP aren't even trying in St. Paul's? Ugh.

I should be clear, I don't actually know that they're "not trying" in St. Paul's, so I'm not suggesting that. But I think it's a very safe guess that the NDP aren't serious contenders in this byelection, and the NDP's byelection strategy this parliament seems to be to only contest seats they have a realistic shot of winning. So I feel very confident in saying the NDP probably aren't going to be serious contenders here.

If they decide to really fight it though (maybe try to piggyback off of Jill Andrew's provincial incumbency), that would make things interesting, and probably help the CPC by not allowing the Liberals to be the ABC vote bank.

It depends on what one's barometer of "aren't serious contenders" is (i.e. is the recent mid-to-high-teens norm a reflection of seriousness or unseriousness?).  And remember that the Ford majorities didn't prevent the provincial Tories from finishing 3rd twice in a row.  So don't discount the likelihood of the NDP being a joint ABC *and* ABL vote bank, an alternative for those deep-Laurentian types who want to punish Justin but can't stomach voting for PP (though unlike in '18, the NDP aren't broadly benefiting from overtaking the Libs in the polls).