regions of the us and population trends

[freepcrusher]

As you guys know, not counting the DC Circuit, there are 11 circuit courts in the united states. I drew a map that looks at what the circuit courts would look like if population had to be equal (about 30 million people per 2020 census data). It also gives a good proxy of the regions of the us. The counties in black are counties where more than one circuit is in it. Going over census data, it tells a story in a way about settlement in the united states.

So the First Circuit is in Green. I calculated that, given, the 2020 population, you would have to go all the way back to 1921 to find the population as half of what it is now. So 1921 is the Median Population Year [MPY].

The second circuit is in red and moved to the Pacific Southwest (how come no one, outside of the defunct airline, ever uses that word). The MPY is 1973

The third circuit is Lavender. The MPY is 1949.
The fourth circuit is in Dark Gray. The MPY is 1959 and has the median MPY of the eleven circuits.
The fifth circuit is in Orange. The MPY is 1965
The sixth circuit is brown. the MPY is the oldest, at 1916
The seventh circuit is yellow. The MPY is 1925
The eighth circuit is lime. The MPY is a close second, at 1917
The ninth circuit is rose. The MPY is 1973
The tenth circuit is Indigo. The MPY is 1978
The eleventh circuit is Light Turquoise. It has the newest MPY at 1979.

What this map shows is that the settlement patterns of east=old west=new isn't completely right. The eighth circuit, where I live, has a very old MPY while the third circuit, for the region of the country it's in, is relatively high. People talk about the word "white flight" when describing people leaving cities and some suburban areas, to areas further on the outskirts. But at a geographic level, this may have happened amongst entirely white people. It's possible that the first and third circuits experienced massive "old stock flight" in the nineteenth century. So while the eighth circuit has a very old MPY despite being far away from the east coast, it is old in the sense that it is disproportionately populated by descendants of people who lived in the 1st/3rd circuits 150+ years ago.

It's also interesting to look at congressional apportionment. Like I find it fascinating that in the lifetime of a lot of people here, New York lost five congressional seats in one census. Each circuit would have 39.55 seats as of 2020, but it's historical number has varied widely in the 435 era (which dates back to 1910). The eighth circuit is definitely the "biggest loser", having started with 67.97 seats in 1910. From 1910-1950, the eighth circuit was in freefall, but stabilized overtime. The sixth circuit started off doing pretty well (63.31 seats in 1910, 65.45 in 1920, peaking at 66.35 in 1930), started declining somewhat from 1930-1970, and then started rapidly shedding seats after 1970. The third and fourth circuits probably have seen the least dramatic change - in the case of the latter, it's been the case of different areas canceling each other out.

I don't have all the info for the fourth circuit yet but here is my top 10 list

Top 10 seats gained in a census
2nd circuit +7.7 1950s
2nd Circuit +5.45 1980s
2nd Circuit +5.1 1920s (given the low starting number, that's impressive)
2nd Circuit +4.85 1940s
11th Circuit +4.82 1970s
11th Circuit +4.05 1980s
2nd Circuit +3.68 1960s
10th Circuit +3.66 1970s
11th Circuit +3.14 1950s
10th Circuit +3.1 1990s

Top 10 seats lost in a census
1st Circuit -5.76 1970s
6th Circuit -5.53 1970s
8th Circuit -5.24 1910s
6th Circuit -5.12 1980s
8th Circuit -5.07 1920s
6th Circuit -4.14 1990s
8th Circuit -3.96 1940s
4th Circuit -3.67 1950s
6th Circuit -3.56 2000s
3rd Circuit -3.04 1970s

Biggest Numerical Gain in a Circuit by Census Year
1910-1920 6th Circuit +2.646 million
1920-1930 6th Circuit +2.774 million
1930-1940 1st Circuit +1.046 million
1940-1950 3rd Circuit +2.330 million
1950-1960 2nd Circuit +4.372 million
1960-1970 2nd Circuit +3.179 million
1970-1980 11th Circuit +3.793 million
1980-1990 2nd Circuit +4.775 million
1990-2000 10th Circuit +4.401 million
2000-2010 10th Circuit +4.182 million
2010-2020 11th Circuit +3.359 million

[Del Tachi]

Thinking where each of these courts of appeals would sit:

First Circuit - New York
Second Circuit - Los Angeles
Third Circuit - Philadelphia
Fourth Circuit - Atlanta
Fifth Circuit - New Orleans
Sixth Circuit - Detroit
Seventh Circuit - Chicago
Eighth Circuit - St. Louis
Ninth Circuit - San Francisco
Tenth Circuit - Denver
Eleventh Circuit - Miami

[freepcrusher]

Thinking where each of these courts of appeals would sit:

First Circuit - New York
Second Circuit - Los Angeles
Third Circuit - Philadelphia
Fourth Circuit - Atlanta
Fifth Circuit - New Orleans
Sixth Circuit - Detroit
Seventh Circuit - Chicago
Eighth Circuit - St. Louis
Ninth Circuit - San Francisco
Tenth Circuit - Denver
Eleventh Circuit - Miami

1st - Boston is where the first currently is so it would probably be there
2nd - Agree
3rd - Agree
4th - Atlanta is too far at the edge. I feel it would be Charlotte
5th - Agree
6th - Detroit is too far at the edge. Probably Cleveland
7th - Chicago is too far at the edge and will probably go to the 8th in 2030. So probably MSP
8th - Agree
9th - too far at the edge. Probably Portland
10th - Colorado goes to the 7th in 2020 so it would probably be ABQ
11th - Agree

for the record it would probably look like this in 2030

[freepcrusher]

Thinking where each of these courts of appeals would sit:

First Circuit - New York
Second Circuit - Los Angeles
Third Circuit - Philadelphia
Fourth Circuit - Atlanta
Fifth Circuit - New Orleans
Sixth Circuit - Detroit
Seventh Circuit - Chicago
Eighth Circuit - St. Louis
Ninth Circuit - San Francisco
Tenth Circuit - Denver
Eleventh Circuit - Miami

calculating the median population center (link below as an example of what that is) of each circuit - here is where the nearest place where the meeting place for oral arguments could be:

1st Circuit Brien McMahon Federal Building in Bridgeport CT
2nd Circuit Edward Roybal Federal Courthouse in LA
3rd Circuit where it is now
4th Circuit WDNC courthouse in Asheville
5th Circuit EDTX courthouse in Lufkin
6th Circuit Carl B Stokes courthouse in Cleveland
7th Circuit Robert Kastenmeier courthouse in Madison
8th Circuit Melvin Price Federal Building in ESL
9th Circuit EDCA courthouse in Redding
10th Circuit District of New Mexico courthouse in Roswell
11th Circuit - MDFL courthouse in Orlando



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Median_center_of_the_United_States_population#/media/File:US_Median_Center_of_Population_2020_Census.webp