Will New Jersey or New York vote to the right of New Hampshire anytime soon?

[Cyrusman]

?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

New Jersey definitely, not sure about NY

[TDAS04]

In an Obama 2008-style national PV victory for Democrats, maybe New Jersey.

[seskoog]

Not in 2024, where I expect NH to vote 5% right of NJ and 10% right of NY.

[MarkD]

Lord no!!

[Schiff for Senate]

New Jersey York definitely not, not sure about NYJ

You're pushing it way too far.

NH is known for an anti-incumbent swing, at the very least it's known to be somewhat more elastic and the entirety of New England swung hard left in 2020. So Biden's performance is probably not part of a larger leftward shift in the state the way it was in GA. And even in 2020 NJ voted 8.5 points to the left of NH - that's no small amount. #trendz are not going to make that difference just disappear, at least not in the short run.

As for NY, even if NYC trends hard right, it's not going to be nearly enough to shift NY 15+ points rightward, which is what would need to happen for NH to vote to the right of NY. Only way that kind of swing occurs in the short term is if NYC literally goes underwater overnight.

Not in 2024, where I expect NH to vote 5% left of NJ and 10% left of NY.

*right

[Arizona Iced Tea]

NH is a very weird state. Trump will probably lose it by high single digits this year. However in 2028, a fresh election, it is entirely possible the state becomes razor thin or even votes for the Republican.

[oldtimer]

New Jersey definitely, not sure about NY

I think so too.

[MT Treasurer]

However in 2028, a fresh election, it is entirely possible the state becomes razor thin or even votes for the Republican.

omg this will never end, will it? 

[Roll Roons]

However in 2028, a fresh election, it is entirely possible the state becomes razor thin or even votes for the Republican.

omg this will never end, will it? 

It's really not crazy to think that an election between two new candidates could produce some huge swings in both directions.

[LabourJersey]

One of the strongest factors that correlate with Democratic support right now is population density.

New Jersey is the most dense state by population in the country.

It is also very educated - only 5 other states have a higher proportion of its population with bachelor's degrees.

Until both of those factors are depolarized, New Jersey won't vote to the right of a less dense, somewhat less educated state like NH.