Does it blow your mind that Obama never won the white vote in New Jersey?

[TDAS04]

Does it?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not at all.

We may be a blue state, but it's really understated how impactful white flight and de facto segregation remain in defining the state’s demographics and geography.

[Atlas Force]

Surprised this isn’t a BRTD threaf, though maybe it’s just because only he ever seems to use the phrase “does it blow your mind?”

[Del Tachi]

According to CNN, Clinton didn't either.  Did Biden?

[mileslunn]

Not really.  State has large African-American, Hispanic, and Asian community and both Romney and McCain got north of 40%.  Also exit polls have high margin of error so it is possible that in fact he did, but probably not but close enough we cannot say for sure. 

Also the less densely populated parts of the state tend to be quite white while at same time most densely and closest to New York city and Philadelphia are least white so just where population lives it makes some sense.

[kwabbit]

McCain did pretty well in NJ given the environment. Romney got the highest GOP% among Whites since Reagan 84 (maybe Bush 88 but not certain), so also getting that high in NJ makes sense.

The Dems didn't win the White vote in that many states, especially before Trump scaring off all the educated Whites from the GOP. In 2012, White vote was basically tied in CA, IL, NJ, NY, etc. despite them being known as Blue States because Obama did so well among non-Whites.

[TDAS04]

McCain did pretty well in NJ given the environment. Romney got the highest GOP% among Whites since Reagan 84 (maybe Bush 88 but not certain), so also getting that high in NJ makes sense.

The Dems didn't win the White vote in that many states, especially before Trump scaring off all the educated Whites from the GOP. In 2012, White vote was basically tied in CA, IL, NJ, NY, etc. despite them being known as Blue States because Obama did so well among non-Whites.

Plus John Kerry fell a bit shy of carrying the white vote even in New York, so the Mid-Atlantic is clearly different from New England in that sense.

[mileslunn]

McCain did pretty well in NJ given the environment. Romney got the highest GOP% among Whites since Reagan 84 (maybe Bush 88 but not certain), so also getting that high in NJ makes sense.

The Dems didn't win the White vote in that many states, especially before Trump scaring off all the educated Whites from the GOP. In 2012, White vote was basically tied in CA, IL, NJ, NY, etc. despite them being known as Blue States because Obama did so well among non-Whites.

True although exit polls showing Romney winning white vote by 20 points were likely off as more detailed study looking at precincts and counties suggests while he did better amongst whites than Trump 2020, he likely underperformed Bush sr and maybe even Bush Jr.  Still he probably did narrowly win white vote in New Jersey and certainly on a nationwide basis New England states, Pacific Northwest and Hawaii were only areas Obama won white vote in 2012 outside of margin of error.  California, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, and Maryland were all close enough could have gone either way amongst whites in 2012. 

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Not at all. NJ is similar to Virginia and a big reason of it having moved left is because of NY's suburb/proximity to NY in its north. Without that it would be a VA-like swing/lean D state (or have remained purple for much longer). And prob wouldve had a GOP gov by now after 2021.

[Independents for Nihilism]

As a rule of thumb, I assume it's more likely than not that a white Jerseyite is a Republican expat from New York. Plus NJ is only something like 55% non-Hispanic white, so put those two things together and it makes sense that even when Obama was winning close to 60% of NJ in the aftermath of Sandy, he did it without a majority of the white population.

[wnwnwn]

There aren't much white democrat areas in New Jersey.
It's not like New York, where most of Manhattan, Albany, other upstate cities and parts of Queens and Brooklyn are well know white democrat areas.
I could draw extremly three gerrymandered 50%+ white NJ CDs where accoding to the site dems won +50% of the white vote. Then, I did exactly the same in North Carolina (and it looked lest gerrymandered there).
At least I suppose dems won whites in Candem and Union counties.

[Pres Mike]

Isn’t New Jersey just wealthy New York commuters and Italian Americans (Sopranos)

[S019]

According to CNN, Clinton didn't either.  Did Biden?

Biden won them by 1 (50-49) according to the NYT exit poll.

[omar04]

Not particularly considering how suburban the state is.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

McCain did pretty well in NJ given the environment. Romney got the highest GOP% among Whites since Reagan 84 (maybe Bush 88 but not certain), so also getting that high in NJ makes sense.

The Dems didn't win the White vote in that many states, especially before Trump scaring off all the educated Whites from the GOP. In 2012, White vote was basically tied in CA, IL, NJ, NY, etc. despite them being known as Blue States because Obama did so well among non-Whites.

Crazy to think Obama did better with whites in IOWA than in any of those states.

[ProgressiveModerate]

McCain did pretty well in NJ given the environment. Romney got the highest GOP% among Whites since Reagan 84 (maybe Bush 88 but not certain), so also getting that high in NJ makes sense.

The Dems didn't win the White vote in that many states, especially before Trump scaring off all the educated Whites from the GOP. In 2012, White vote was basically tied in CA, IL, NJ, NY, etc. despite them being known as Blue States because Obama did so well among non-Whites.

Honestly it's a bit hard to tell if McCain truly did "well" in NJ in 2008 considering the national environment. Both 2000 and 2012 elections were sort of abnormally strong Dem performances due to different circumstances.

[ProgressiveModerate]

McCain did pretty well in NJ given the environment. Romney got the highest GOP% among Whites since Reagan 84 (maybe Bush 88 but not certain), so also getting that high in NJ makes sense.

The Dems didn't win the White vote in that many states, especially before Trump scaring off all the educated Whites from the GOP. In 2012, White vote was basically tied in CA, IL, NJ, NY, etc. despite them being known as Blue States because Obama did so well among non-Whites.

Crazy to think Obama did better with whites in IOWA than in any of those states.

Outside the northeast corridor and Hawaii, Iowa was prolly Obama's best 2012 state with whites. If I had to guess, Obama 2012 carried the white vote in ME, NH, VT, MA, CT, RI, NY, HI, IA, MN, OR, and WA, while narrowly losing it everywhere else including CA (though def very close). CO whites were also prolly pretty close.