Why is Louisiana losing population compared to other red states?

[Samof94]

Why is Louisiana losing more than it gets via domestic migration compared to other red states?

[ProgressiveModerate]

It lacks any sort of city that has growing industry. In Alabama for instance, you have Huntsville which has seen decent economic growth in sectors like Tech.

[satsuma]

South Louisiana has a recurring issue with hurricanes. Katrina was a historic disaster that drove large numbers out of New Orleans permanently, and this decade, New Orleans and Houma were again hit by Ida. Lake Charles suffered an exodus due to Laura, which may scar the area worse than Rita did.

North Louisiana is predominantly rural, and its largest city Shreveport is in long-term decline from loss of manufacturing.

The thriving parts of Louisiana at the moment are more like the I-12 corridor (Baton Rouge to Slidell) and Lafayette. These areas don't draw enough to counterbalance the losses elsewhere.

To dampen the Florida stats a little (AZ, DE, and SC too?), a retirement destination will always be positive on domestic migration because people go there... and then die rather than move out. Louisiana isn't a retirement destination. Perhaps it even hurts somewhat that it's near the Texas Triangle with its massive growth.

The argument that tax policy gets partial credit for red-state dynamism? Louisiana falls flat here. The Tax Foundation ranks it close to AL and AR but otherwise firmly in the company of blue states, with a relatively high sales tax and corporate income tax. 

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Louisiana is the first state that is dying from the effects of climate change. It’s literally sinking (in part because of the levee works) and being battered by hurricanes. Why build a factory in a place with near annual flooding? Unless Shreveport, Monroe, or Alexandria has some sorta boom this decade it’ll continue to shrink, physically and demographically.

[Mr. Smith]

It's literally going down.

[Brittain33]

Does Louisiana have literally any beaches?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Does Louisiana have literally any beaches?

Grand Isle way down at the bottom of Jefferson Parish is probably the most famous one.

[satsuma]

Does Louisiana have literally any beaches?

Grand Isle way down at the bottom of Jefferson Parish is probably the most famous one.

Yep, there's no developed beach resorts like in the other Gulf Coast states. Cameron Parish has a mostly beachy coast though. I've been to Holly Beach.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Does Louisiana have literally any beaches?

Grand Isle way down at the bottom of Jefferson Parish is probably the most famous one.

Yep, there's no developed beach resorts like in the other Gulf Coast states. Cameron Parish has a mostly beachy coast though. I've been to Holly Beach.

Yea it’s nothing like the rest of southern beaches. Outside of Holly and Grad aisle the rest are tiny tiny beach communities in the realm of two to twenty houses.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... for a very long time in the 18th and 19th centuries, New Orleans was the only large city in the South.  However, it basically didn't participate in the post-WWII Southern boom at all, so the state has taken on much more of a Rust Belt character than the rest of the South.  New Orleans has a slightly lower population now than it did in 1920!  Meanwhile, Houston popped up seemingly out of nowhere and overtook New Orleans by 5X even at the metro area scale, which includes the suburban areas of NOLA that actually have grown over time.

In theory, New Orleans should be one of the largest cities in the country, and it used to be one.  The big question is what went wrong?

[Skill and Chance]

Louisiana is the first state that is dying from the effects of climate change. It’s literally sinking (in part because of the levee works) and being battered by hurricanes. Why build a factory in a place with near annual flooding? Unless Shreveport, Monroe, or Alexandria has some sorta boom this decade it’ll continue to shrink, physically and demographically.

I do think this could be a reasonable theory for why New Orleans didn't make it.  They also had the misfortune of having their flood disaster early enough that there hadn't really been any technological progress or significant investment in mitigating climate change. 

To take it a step further, maybe Louisiana really needed the very cold 17th-19th century climate to thrive and it was already past the point of no return by WWII or so?  They were already experiencing unprecedented flooding in the 1920's.  New Orleans seemed to have accumulating snow every few years back then, which would kill off a lot of the mosquitoes and tropical diseases.  And of course the sea levels were lower.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Louisiana is the first state that is dying from the effects of climate change. It’s literally sinking (in part because of the levee works) and being battered by hurricanes. Why build a factory in a place with near annual flooding? Unless Shreveport, Monroe, or Alexandria has some sorta boom this decade it’ll continue to shrink, physically and demographically.

I do think this could be a reasonable theory for why New Orleans didn't make it.  They also had the misfortune of having their flood disaster early enough that there hadn't really been any technological progress or significant investment in mitigating climate change. 

To take it a step further, maybe Louisiana really needed the very cold 17th-19th century climate to thrive and it was already past the point of no return by WWII or so?  They were already experiencing unprecedented flooding in the 1920's.  New Orleans seemed to have accumulating snow every few years back then, which would kill off a lot of the mosquitoes and tropical diseases.  And of course the sea levels were lower.

Louisiana had always experienced some flooding. The Mississippi used to switch out flowing from New Orleans or out what is now the Atchafalaya ever so often. This would disperse the flooding somewhat, but there was still floods. Modern dams, farms, towns, etc. stuck the Mississippi on one path which it really isn’t meant to do.

[Del Tachi]

Compared to other Southern states, the cost of living in Louisiana is quite high (insurance + taxes, really), job prospects are pretty poor, and state law still hasn't caught up with more business-friendly reforms that were pushed in states like TX/FL in the 1970s-1990s

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Compared to other Southern states, the cost of living in Louisiana is quite high (insurance + taxes, really), job prospects are pretty poor, and state law still hasn't caught up with more business-friendly reforms that were pushed in states like TX/FL in the 1970s-1990s

I’ll sound like a broken record, but this is also strongly influenced by climate change. Insurance companies are full believers in it and charge people accordingly. In fact some have stopped offering coverage completely in places like southern Louisiana.

[Indy Texas]

Economy purely based on commodities (oil, gas, fishing/shrimping, agriculture)

No large, distinguished research universities. Best school in the state is Tulane which isn't big enough or STEM-focused enough to have big economic knock-on effects like software or biotech firms. LSU is a football fan club whose members occasionally attend classes.

Prone to frequent natural disasters. No pleasant weather/scenery drawing retirees or second home buyers or remote work types.

If their government isn't still cartoonishly corrupt, they have yet to shake that perception among the rest of the country.

[Indy Texas]

Compared to other Southern states, the cost of living in Louisiana is quite high (insurance + taxes, really), job prospects are pretty poor, and state law still hasn't caught up with more business-friendly reforms that were pushed in states like TX/FL in the 1970s-1990s

I’ll sound like a broken record, but this is also strongly influenced by climate change. Insurance companies are full believers in it and charge people accordingly. In fact some have stopped offering coverage completely in places like southern Louisiana.

Even if Republicans continue to remain in denial about climate change, insurance companies literally can't afford to do so. So Republicans will be forced to choose between abandoning uninsurable areas or using the power of the government to force private companies to write money-losing policies (or get the government in the insurance business to write money-losing policies).

[Continential]

Prone to frequent natural disasters. No pleasant weather/scenery drawing retirees or second home buyers or remote work types.

I'm surprised that New Orleans hasn't marketed itself as a center of culture and urban life in the South although there aren't many companies with offices in New Orleans so it would be harder to do so.

[Del Tachi]

Compared to other Southern states, the cost of living in Louisiana is quite high (insurance + taxes, really), job prospects are pretty poor, and state law still hasn't caught up with more business-friendly reforms that were pushed in states like TX/FL in the 1970s-1990s

I’ll sound like a broken record, but this is also strongly influenced by climate change. Insurance companies are full believers in it and charge people accordingly. In fact some have stopped offering coverage completely in places like southern Louisiana.

Even if Republicans continue to remain in denial about climate change, insurance companies literally can't afford to do so. So Republicans will be forced to choose between abandoning uninsurable areas or using the power of the government to force private companies to write money-losing policies (or get the government in the insurance business to write money-losing policies).

The problem is FEMA's new Risk Rating 2.0, which re-calculated flood risk for all U.S. properties in 2021 and sent insurance rates skyrocketing in South Louisiana and other coastal areas.  The new rating system incorporates unproven climate change models that predict more damaging storms and sea level rise, while ignoring mitigation measures implemented by state and local governments (like improved levee systems and updated building codes.)

The use of the new risk model is being litigated by ten states and 43 Louisiana parishes.

[Skill and Chance]

Compared to other Southern states, the cost of living in Louisiana is quite high (insurance + taxes, really), job prospects are pretty poor, and state law still hasn't caught up with more business-friendly reforms that were pushed in states like TX/FL in the 1970s-1990s

I’ll sound like a broken record, but this is also strongly influenced by climate change. Insurance companies are full believers in it and charge people accordingly. In fact some have stopped offering coverage completely in places like southern Louisiana.

Even if Republicans continue to remain in denial about climate change, insurance companies literally can't afford to do so. So Republicans will be forced to choose between abandoning uninsurable areas or using the power of the government to force private companies to write money-losing policies (or get the government in the insurance business to write money-losing policies).

The problem is FEMA's new Risk Rating 2.0, which re-calculated flood risk for all U.S. properties in 2021 and sent insurance rates skyrocketing in South Louisiana and other coastal areas.  The new rating system incorporates unproven climate change models that predict more damaging storms and sea level rise, while ignoring mitigation measures implemented by state and local governments (like improved levee systems and updated building codes.)

The use of the new risk model is being litigated by ten states and 43 Louisiana parishes.

I've always been a moderate on climate change.  But given the acceleration over the last few years which happened simultaneously with literally millions of people moving to the Gulf Coast, don't you think it's getting dicey whether these population densities are sustainable?  There hasn't exactly been a lot of time to build more seawalls.

[Sol]

Seawalls also aren’t a solution to climate change issues, because a sea wall in one place means worse impacts somewhere else.

[King of Kensington]

Well I never hear Louisiana referred to as part of the "sunbelt" in spite of its geographic location.

[Lykaon]

Hmmm... for a very long time in the 18th and 19th centuries, New Orleans was the only large city in the South.  However, it basically didn't participate in the post-WWII Southern boom at all, so the state has taken on much more of a Rust Belt character than the rest of the South.  New Orleans has a slightly lower population now than it did in 1920!  Meanwhile, Houston popped up seemingly out of nowhere and overtook New Orleans by 5X even at the metro area scale, which includes the suburban areas of NOLA that actually have grown over time.

In theory, New Orleans should be one of the largest cities in the country, and it used to be one.  The big question is what went wrong?

That can be answered with one word.

Katrina

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Seawalls also aren’t a solution to climate change issues, because a sea wall in one place means worse impacts somewhere else.

Louisiana’s levee’s are a good example of this

[Skill and Chance]

Seawalls also aren’t a solution to climate change issues, because a sea wall in one place means worse impacts somewhere else.

A small percentage of all coastline is urbanized.  Let an uninhabited swamp get twice as big.

[Pres Mike]

Louisiana is the first state that is dying from the effects of climate change. It’s literally sinking (in part because of the levee works) and being battered by hurricanes. Why build a factory in a place with near annual flooding? Unless Shreveport, Monroe, or Alexandria has some sorta boom this decade it’ll continue to shrink, physically and demographically.

I do think this could be a reasonable theory for why New Orleans didn't make it.  They also had the misfortune of having their flood disaster early enough that there hadn't really been any technological progress or significant investment in mitigating climate change. 

To take it a step further, maybe Louisiana really needed the very cold 17th-19th century climate to thrive and it was already past the point of no return by WWII or so?  They were already experiencing unprecedented flooding in the 1920's.  New Orleans seemed to have accumulating snow every few years back then, which would kill off a lot of the mosquitoes and tropical diseases.  And of course the sea levels were lower.

I did not know the 1600s-1800s were colder than usual

I knew about the Little Ice Age, I didn't know it lasted so long