Split congressional results

[Flats the Flounder]

I've been lurking here for a while, but I wanted to post to discuss a topic that I feel has gone somewhat understated: the trend of split congressional results, or when one party picks up seats in the House, while the other picks up seats in the Senate. This has happened in the last three election cycles, and I believe that it is likely going to happen again in 2024.

I have my own ideas as to why this may be happening. First off is the role gerrymandering has played in the last few House elections, especially during the 2022 elections, which seemed to mainly benefit the incumbents that year. As a result, House elections with gerrymandered districts will communicate something very different about a state's partisan lean than a simple statewide race. (see Georgia in 2022)

I think another big reason is that elections generally have gotten much closer around the country, and we haven't really seen any "wave" elections in the past 20 years on the scale of elections like in the 20th century, so the fact that there are more incongruent Congressional results may just stem from that fact.

Let me know what you think!

[Smash255]

I've been lurking here for a while, but I wanted to post to discuss a topic that I feel has gone somewhat understated: the trend of split congressional results, or when one party picks up seats in the House, while the other picks up seats in the Senate. This has happened in the last three election cycles, and I believe that it is likely going to happen again in 2024.

I have my own ideas as to why this may be happening. First off is the role gerrymandering has played in the last few House elections, especially during the 2022 elections, which seemed to mainly benefit the incumbents that year. As a result, House elections with gerrymandered districts will communicate something very different about a state's partisan lean than a simple statewide race. (see Georgia in 2022)

I think another big reason is that elections generally have gotten much closer around the country, and we haven't really seen any "wave" elections in the past 20 years on the scale of elections like in the 20th century, so the fact that there are more incongruent Congressional results may just stem from that fact.

Let me know what you think!

First, welcome to the board.  You do bring up a few good points and things like gerrymandering do play a role.   Another factor is if the Senate class up that cycle had any recent wave elections and as a result one side was defending many more seats.   

2018 would be a perfect example of this.   It was no question a Democratic wave year and Democrats picked up over 40 seats in the House.  However, due to the Democrats picking up a ton of Senate seats in 2006 and more in 2012, there were 24 Democratic seats up in 2018 and only 9 Republican ones.   On top of that a bunch of the Democratic seats up were in GOP territory.

[Flats the Flounder]

First, welcome to the board.  You do bring up a few good points and things like gerrymandering do play a role.   Another factor is if the Senate class up that cycle had any recent wave elections and as a result one side was defending many more seats.   

2018 would be a perfect example of this.   It was no question a Democratic wave year and Democrats picked up over 40 seats in the House.  However, due to the Democrats picking up a ton of Senate seats in 2006 and more in 2012, there were 24 Democratic seats up in 2018 and only 9 Republican ones.   On top of that a bunch of the Democratic seats up were in GOP territory.

I'd have to agree with this. This definitely played a role in 2018, and it'll play a role in 2024 as well. I think what makes this phenomenon so interesting to me is how ambiguous it ends up making election results feel. I would agree with you that 2018 was a wave year, but it didn't feel like a wave year on the scale of 2006 or 2010, for example.

Similarly, 2022 was undoubtedly a bad result for Republicans, but I would argue that that feeling was lessened for some people since the GOP still won back the House.

I'm curious as to what elections you or others might find more "accurate" as a demonstration of the results more generally. I'd personally say Senate elections due to the effects of gerrymandering in the House, but Senate elections do have their own issues when it comes to this, including the idiosyncrasies of some Senate candidates, along with the partisan makeup of the different Senate classes, as you mentioned.

Thanks for welcoming me!

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I had a map that was a Warnock/Perdue 2022 senate special runoff result, it was north Fulton and north Cobb

So I was messing around with a georgia map and I accidently created a Warnock/Perdue district... which if you had asked me I would have said was impossible but here it is. It kinda looks like Massachusettes



https://davesredistricting.org/join/c36d260e-2014-4d4e-a1ac-bed333fa201f

[Roll Roons]

I had a map that was a Warnock/Perdue 2022 senate special runoff result, it was north Fulton and north Cobb

So I was messing around with a georgia map and I accidently created a Warnock/Perdue district... which if you had asked me I would have said was impossible but here it is. It kinda looks like Massachusettes



https://davesredistricting.org/join/c36d260e-2014-4d4e-a1ac-bed333fa201f

I love how that hypothetical district is located exactly where you'd expect it to be.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I had a map that was a Warnock/Perdue 2022 senate special runoff result, it was north Fulton and north Cobb

So I was messing around with a georgia map and I accidently created a Warnock/Perdue district... which if you had asked me I would have said was impossible but here it is. It kinda looks like Massachusettes



https://davesredistricting.org/join/c36d260e-2014-4d4e-a1ac-bed333fa201f

I love how that hypothetical district is located exactly where you'd expect it to be.

In general, the stereotype that upper-middle class and wealthy suburbs have the most ticket splitters turns out to be true, and usually almost always works in favor of Rs downballot and against the crazy Rs.

[Epaminondas]

How many seats are we talking about here in 2022?
I can think of 11 cases: OR-5, PA-1, KS-3, CA-22, CA-27, AZ-2, AZ-6 (by 10 points no less), and then the NY slaughterhouse (4, 17, 19, 22)

Am I missing more? Can a pattern be found in such a small sample?