What changed in NY between August and November 2022?

[Roll Roons]

In August 2022, Pat Ryan beat Marc Molinaro by 3 points in a Biden +2 district, while Joe Sempolinski only won by 6 in a Trump +11 district.

Despite that, NY ended up being one of the few states where a red wave actually happened in November, with Molinaro even managing to win a district that was bluer than the one he lost in the special.

What changed? If Democrats overperformed in August because of Dobbs, why did that not carry into November like it did in other states?

[Tekken_Guy]

Those were both upstate edctions and that was just due to better GOP turnout. There was not really a red wave upstate like their was in NYC and on Long Island.

[Roll Roons]

Those were both upstate edctions and that was just due to better GOP turnout. There was not really a red wave upstate like their was in NYC and on Long Island.

It wasn't as pronounced as NYC/LI, but congressional Republicans still did much better in Upstate NY than they did in a lot of other places around the country. Molinaro won a bluer version of NY-19 that didn't even include any of his home base in Dutchess County, Tenney and Langworthy won in landslides, Williams won a Biden +8 district even though he's a lot more conservative/Trumpy than Katko and Singletary only lost by 7 in a Biden +21 district.

[MT Treasurer]

Special elections are not representative of regular midterm, let alone presidential elections.

Ask Mayra Flores if you want an example from the GOP side.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Zeldin at the top of the ticket was very effective at getting GOP voters to the polls

[Kabam]

I think the governor's race helped Republicans a lot.
Also, turn-out probably favors Dems in upstate New York in special elections.
Dobbs might also have been closer and faded there more, as abortion rights are not really at risk in New York.

[Devils30]

In these very white upstate NY districts, white college is always a larger % in special, local elections. This now helps the Dems in places like here, in midwest where non-college lower income whites who only vote in presidentials (and some midterms) lean more Republican.

In contrast, higher presidential turnout probably helps Dems in states like NV with a lot of non-white voters.

[President Johnson]

Zeldin at the top of the ticket was very effective at getting GOP voters to the polls

Agreed, though he not oly got Republican voters. Which is actually kind of insane given that he's also an election denier and not the type of Republican that previously did well in New York.

I really wonder how Cuomo in 2022 would have done without the sexual harrassment scandal.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Turnout dynamics in the special election favored Democrats with a more college educated electorate.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In these very white upstate NY districts, white college is always a larger % in special, local elections. This now helps the Dems in places like here, in midwest where non-college lower income whites who only vote in presidentials (and some midterms) lean more Republican.

In contrast, higher presidential turnout probably helps Dems in states like NV with a lot of non-white voters.

This feels accurate.