Ten months out: Which seat are Democrats more likely to hold?

[SnowLabrador]

In my mind, it's still Ohio. I see Sherrod Brown as a moderate underdog, whereas Jon Tester needs a miracle and a half.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They will hold both and keep the S Emerson already have Brown and Tester ahead 3 Pts a mini blue wave will happen at the end of 24 watch

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is a difficult question.

I would currently rate both as "Lean R", with OH on average being closer but MT having a wider range of possible outcomes.

I'm still gonna say Ohio only because we've increasingly seen partisanship win out, and OH's 2020 Pres margin was half that of MT. I think it's unlikely Biden wins Ohio, but could def see him holding it close enough for Brown to win.

[TwinGeeks99]

I would say Ohio, and it basically boils down to the partisanship of the two states. The GOP likely nominating Bernie Moreno also adds to my hunch.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a difficult question.

I would currently rate both as "Lean R", with OH on average being closer but MT having a wider range of possible outcomes.

I'm still gonna say Ohio only because we've increasingly seen partisanship win out, and OH's 2020 Pres margin was half that of MT. I think it's unlikely Biden wins Ohio, but could def see him holding it close enough for Brown to win.

They aren't both Lean R because both are leading in Emerson

[Del Tachi]

Ds win both

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I have both as Lean R.

It is close but at this point I see it as narrowly Ohio.

I think Tester gets more cross over support but it a much tougher hill to climb partisanship wise.

[Xing]

While I have both as Lean R, I could see Brown pulling it out against a bad opponent or if Democrats have a solid night overall, whereas I’m starting to think Tester needs both of those conditions to win.

[windjammer]

I would say Montana because Sheehy is more likely to underperform expectations.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Montana

[MT Treasurer]

The problem for Tester is that Sheehy can "underperform expectations" (although the extent to which he will/might underperform is highly debatable, and I’m not at all sold on the Gideon-Sheehy comparison even though I’ve been more critical of his candidacy than most other Rs) and still win in a red wave environment (in MT) in a presidential year with Trump carrying the state by 17-20%, i.e. it’s entirely possible that even a Collins-style overperformance won’t be enough to save him.

Tester being the front line target this cycle and facing a much more coordinated GOP effort is really bad news for him, much like it was for Heitkamp in 2018 and Landrieu in 2014. Yes, he’s a very smart opponent who shouldn’t be "underestimated" (no one involved in the race actually does this — it’s very much the same attitude people had in the Bullock vs. Daines race), but he’s definitely in serious trouble.

As for Brown, I think he stands a better chance than Tester if Biden can keep the state within 6-7% or so. If he loses OH by double digits, he’ll need a complete GOP implosion to have a prayer, and I don’t think Moreno is that bad a candidate. For Brown, it’s more a problem of finding the raw votes in such a heterogeneous state — a Donnelly/McCaskill-style loss is probably more likely at that point.

All of this assumes that we live in a non-riverwalk3 universe where we won’t get Senator Mucarsell-Powell and a Slotkinslide on the same night when Trump is winning the NPV by 8.

[jamestroll]

I see the range for Brown between Brown +2 and Brown -6.

The range for Tester I see as Tester +3 to Tester -25.

The bottom could fall out for Tester really fast. Ohio is too large for retail politicing to work unlike Ohio. Tester tends to poll as more popular than Brown in most polls, but there is no situation this year that Montana is in single digits presidentially. While Ohio GOP will struggle to go over +10.

However, there have been signs and evidence that perhaps 2020 was peak polarization as well.

Basically if one of them win its:

1) Brown was able to scoop up enough voters in suburbs in an upper single digit Drumpf state.

2) Tester was able to use resources efficiently in a low population state.

Yes yes.. I know the 2022 midterms had a strong GOP lean in Ohio with state Republicans winning by gigantic margins, but Drumpf is not likely to get those margins. And there may have been some abortion overreach in Ohio, the Ohio GOP was still seen as quasi-moderate and sane at that time. A lot of Ohio voters did SPLIT their ticket for Tim Ryan, and if they do it in the same proportion for Brown and Drumpf, Brown could win.


My pick is Brown as the one more likely to win. Just less split tickets necessary and suburbs could give him benefit of the doubt

[wnwnwn]

Ohio.

[MarkD]

Ohio is clearly more likely to reelect S. Brown. It's a much more urban state, and does not lean as heavily Republican as Montana.

[Dan the Roman]

Brown needs voters who are former Democrats.

Tester needs voters who never voted Democratic and in many cases moved to Montana because they don't like Democrats

I think the 2020 blowouts had a lot to do with demographic change in Montana which as with the Dakotas is really bad for Democrats as it includes a lot of West Coast migrants. A lot of them will have no memories of Tester, and if they are increasingly not engaged in agriculture or traditional Montana industries a lot of his appeal will be lost.

I mean I expect him to ourcampaign Sheehy to a greater degree than either of his last two races, but I feel the newer voters won't be listening.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Ohio

[oldtimer]

Both are likely to be won by Democrats, if Sheehy and Moreno are the candidates.

Funny thing is if Sheehy and Moreno swapped states, Republicans would be favoured to win both.