NV-03: Highly touted Republican Heidi Kasama (R) drops out.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1742970840742863237

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1742969004204122396

[ajc0918]

Republicans in disarray

[wbrocks67]

Lee was underrated in 2022 as well, so I don't think this would've been a huge muh tossup race, but at this rate, it's probably Likely D.

[Vosem]

Helgelien is very wacky and is being pushed by Matt Gaetz for some reason (and also has, um, an incredibly lurid personal story if you want to look that up); she would make it basically Safe D, not least because the McCarthy-friendly national GOP would deliberately spike the race in that case. Johnson has a long history as a conservative journalist (much of which he spent as a capital-L Libertarian; he supported gay marriage and marijuana legalization in the 2000s when those were pretty fringe beliefs), which presumably will let him fundraise nationally. He actually performed somewhat better than expected in a county commission race in 2022 (lost a Leans D seat by a margin of 49.8%-50.2%), and I think he would be fine, though as drawn this isn't an easy seat for a Republican to win.

Leans D with Johnson, but I can see him as a high-variance candidate if given more attention, because his profile is unusual. Safe D if Helgelien for like five different reasons.

(I think Kasama dropping out might mean that someone else from the Lombardo-aligned NVGOP establishment will run -- Stavros Anthony lives here and it would be a free shot for him -- but it might also mean that Johnson has fundraised successfully enough that there isn't a point.)