How likely are the following coalitions by 2040?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

White: Tie
Hispanic: R +20
Black: D +25
Other: R +5

18-29: R +10
30-44: R +8
45-64: R +5
65+: D +20

Below median income: R +30
Above median income: D +25

Urban: R +20
Suburban: D +30
Rural: R +30

[Arizona Iced Tea]

2040 is still too early for that imo, it might be possible by the 2060s though. An early example of this is Fort Bend County, educated suburb of Houston which is more white could very well vote to the left of the less white more urban Harris county in 2024.

[Tekken_Guy]

2040 is still too early for that imo, it might be possible by the 2060s though. An early example of this is Fort Bend County, educated suburb of Houston which is more white could very well vote to the left of the less white more urban Harris county in 2024.

Isn’t Fort Bend pretty heavily Asian?

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Extremely unlikely

[EastwoodS]

White: R+10
Hispanic: D+5
Black: D +45
Other: R +10

18-29: D+10
30-44: D+5
45-64: R +15
65+:  R+ 10

Below median income: R +2
Above median income: R+15

Urban: D+10
Suburban: D +15
Rural: R +40

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Urban: R +20
Suburban: D +30
Rural: R +30

Everything else aside, this looks like a recipe for one-party GOP rule at the federal level.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Urban: R +20
Suburban: D +30
Rural: R +30

Everything else aside, this looks like a recipe for one-party GOP rule at the federal level.

The 2020 exit polls were 29% urban, 51% suburban, and 19% rural.

[wnwnwn]

I think that hidpanics will be long term 45%R 55%D at most. Most of them live in urban dem areas where the rest of the popularion also lean dem (Los Angeles, New York, Dallas,etc). Also, inmigration policies will still hace an impact for most latinos in USA (old stock hispanics like tejanos aside).

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Urban: R +20
Suburban: D +30
Rural: R +30

Everything else aside, this looks like a recipe for one-party GOP rule at the federal level.

The 2020 exit polls were 29% urban, 51% suburban, and 19% rural.

If you plug in that urban-suburban-rural split with the 2020 exit polls you get a D+3.8% sample.

CA was 43-52-5 per 2020 CNN exits, which becomes D+5.5 under this model

TX was 42-51-7 per 2020 CNN exits, which becomes D+4.8 under this model

FL was 41-50-9 per 2020 CNN exits, which becomes D+4.1 under this model

NY was 48-44-8 per 2020 CNN exits, which becomes D+1.2 under this model

PA was 22-56-22 per 2020 CNN exits, which becomes D+5.8 under this model

NC was 33-44-27 per 2020 CNN exits, which becomes R+2.7 under this model

NV was 71-16-13 per 2020 CNN exits, which becomes R+13.3 under this model

ME was 5-45-51 per 2020 CNN exits, which becomes R+2.8 under this model

Maybe not as bad for Ds/good for Rs in the Electoral College as I might've guessed, but the Senate, House, and state governments would be a different story.

[Person Man]

No

[mileslunn]

Hispanics voting to right of whites not as far fetched as some think.  While only in a few states, pretty sure Italians are most Republican group in Northeast while historically they were one of the most Democrat.  It comes down to whether Hispanics in future are seen as white or non-white as white is a social construct not a specific skin tone so what is considered white can change over time. 

I could see by 2040, middle aged voters being most Democrat not younger like now as those who came of age in Obama era would be middle age.  Seniors would be Gen X who are more conservative than millennials.

[DS0816]

White: Tie
Hispanic: R +20
Black: D +25
Other: R +5

18-29: R +10
30-44: R +8
45-64: R +5
65+: D +20

Below median income: R +30
Above median income: D +25

Urban: R +20
Suburban: D +30
Rural: R +30

I am considering, on a national level, Whites realigning Democratic and Blacks realigning Republican for changing coalitions.

That this could happen with the 18–29 (realigning Republican) and the 65+ (realigning Democratic) voting-age groups.

To present margins would be distracting; it could lead to talking about general-election outcomes and, ultimately, come across as being more about the winning party for a given United States presidential election cycle.

I am considering realigning voting patterns for party coalitions.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Riverwalk's scenario would imply a continuation of current trends. I think that EastwoodS's is a bit more realistic, although such a scenario would require the Dems to significantly fall out of favor with the electorate.