India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[jaichind]

2019:

"Narendra Modi is a terrorist, says Chandrababu Naidu"

2024:
Modi and Naidu have a prolonged hug at CBN's swearing in cermoney

[OSR stands with Israel]

2019:

"Narendra Modi is a terrorist, says Chandrababu Naidu"

2024:
Modi and Naidu have a prolonged hug at CBN's swearing in cermoney

Literally Peak Indian Political Discourse right here. People will call someone a terrorist and then 5 minutes later ask "where do you want to go for dinner"

[jaichind]

Literally Peak Indian Political Discourse right here. People will call someone a terrorist and then 5 minutes later ask "where do you want to go for dinner"

There is a reason for this.  Modi needs CBN to ensure a majority and AP state government is basically bankrupt so CBN needs Modi to spend a ton of money to bail him out as far as finances are concerned.  With these needs who cares who called whom a terrorist in the past?

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bhubaneswar/odisha-cm-designate-majhi-was-once-an-mla-who-slept-on-footpaths/articleshow/110919894.cms

"Odisha CM-designate Mohan Charan Majhi was once an MLA who slept on footpaths"

New BJP CM of Odisha is a tribal with RSS background.

 

[eos]

lol
 
Literally Peak Indian Political Discourse right here. People will call someone a terrorist and then 5 minutes later ask "where do you want to go for dinner"

There is a reason for this.  Modi needs CBN to ensure a majority and AP state government is basically bankrupt so CBN needs Modi to spend a ton of money to bail him out as far as finances are concerned.  With these needs who cares who called whom a terrorist in the past?

They shouldn’t have been in that much trouble if they had done more equitable development and not focused everything in Hyderabad.

[eos]

Meghalaya had some very interesting results. INC lost its pocket borough in Shillong to a regional party VPP, but in turn defeated NPP MP Agatha Sangma in Tura in a shocking upset. The NPP faced anti-incumbency as Sangma’s family held the seat for several decades and also suffered from a toxic alliance with BJP due to the Manipur conflict last year and perception of BJP being anti-Christian.

The VPP made news last year, storming out of the assembly after the BJP appointed governor made his first speech in Hindi.

[OSR stands with Israel]

lol
 
Literally Peak Indian Political Discourse right here. People will call someone a terrorist and then 5 minutes later ask "where do you want to go for dinner"

There is a reason for this.  Modi needs CBN to ensure a majority and AP state government is basically bankrupt so CBN needs Modi to spend a ton of money to bail him out as far as finances are concerned.  With these needs who cares who called whom a terrorist in the past?

They shouldn’t have been in that much trouble if they had done more equitable development and not focused everything in Hyderabad.

I mean big cities metros tend to get more development regardless of country. Thats true here in the US here where the major Metros are more developed than other parts of the state.

[Arson Plus]

Literally Peak Indian Political Discourse right here. People will call someone a terrorist and then 5 minutes later ask "where do you want to go for dinner"

There is a reason for this.  Modi needs CBN to ensure a majority and AP state government is basically bankrupt so CBN needs Modi to spend a ton of money to bail him out as far as finances are concerned.  With these needs who cares who called whom a terrorist in the past?

I mean this is basically CBN's dream in my opinion. He obliterated his political opponent (Jagan/YS dynasty), and now he can be given the world by the BJP so he doesn't leave and get the credit for what the BJP gives him in order not to leave and presumably be reelected/hand down power to his son in 2029. Of course things can always change.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Meghalaya had some very interesting results. INC lost its pocket borough in Shillong to a regional party VPP, but in turn defeated NPP MP Agatha Sangma in Tura in a shocking upset. The NPP faced anti-incumbency as Sangma’s family held the seat for several decades and also suffered from a toxic alliance with BJP due to the Manipur conflict last year and perception of BJP being anti-Christian.

The VPP made news last year, storming out of the assembly after the BJP appointed governor made his first speech in Hindi.

Is the INC MP Saleng Sangma related in any way to the Sangma who hold elected office in the state?

[jaichind]

They shouldn’t have been in that much trouble if they had done more equitable development and not focused everything in Hyderabad.

Yes, but their current fiscal trouble also stems on again off again buildout of the new capital of Amaravati.  It was CBN's pet project in which a lot of money (and future debt since CBN used annuities to buy the land which merely pushed out the fiscal bomb) was paid to farmers to acquire the land. YSRCP CM Y. S. Jagan Mohan Reddy claimed the land acquisition was a scam to route money to the Kamma caste farms in the area (CBN is a Kamma) and wanted to renege on the entire deal.  Instead, YSRCP routed all the money to all sorts of freebies to de facto buy votes for the 2024 election.  It did not work as the people who took the free stuff failed to vote for YSRCP.

Now that CBN is back the cost to restart the project after being abandoned under the YSRCP regime would now be $5 billion.  That is money CBN does not have so he will need Modi to fork over the money.

[jaichind]

Meghalaya had some very interesting results. INC lost its pocket borough in Shillong to a regional party VPP, but in turn defeated NPP MP Agatha Sangma in Tura in a shocking upset. The NPP faced anti-incumbency as Sangma’s family held the seat for several decades and also suffered from a toxic alliance with BJP due to the Manipur conflict last year and perception of BJP being anti-Christian.

The VPP made news last year, storming out of the assembly after the BJP appointed governor made his first speech in Hindi.

Yeah, the entire Christian Northeast has turned against NDA given the Meiti(Hindu)-Kuki(Christian) violence in Manipur last year. It seems in Christian parts of the Northeast it is mostly about consolidation in favor of the most anti-NDA candidate.  In Shillong that was VPP while in Tura that was INC.  The NPP made the mistake of running with BJP support.  Had they run on their own with BJP running separately like in 2019 they could have had a fighting chance.

INC winning Nagaland was along the same lines.  Since 2014 INC organization in Nagaland collapsed with BJP taking most of it over.  INC almost won Nagaland in 2019 mostly due to NPF support against NPF splinter and BJP ally NDPP.  In 2024 all the major parties in Nagaland including NPF BJP etc etc were all behind NDPP but INC, with no MLAs and no state organization, won.  Frontier Nagaland did not vote and the rest seems to decided to vote against NDA.

Outer Manipur which has a large number of Kuki going INC is not a surprise.  Inner Manipor going INC seems to be about INC being able to run a credible Meiti candidate while RPI(A) split the pro-BJP Meiti vote.

In Hindu Tripura (Tripura tribals are Hindus like Meiteis in Manipur) it was the other way around.  BJP roped in the INC tribal splinter TRIPA and with superior organization, the tribal vote, state government resources, and the usual rigging in favor of the state ruling party the BJP bloc won a massive 70% of the vote over a CPM-INC alliance.

The Hindu-Christian polarization seems to be complete in the Northeast.

The consolation for the BJP is that at the state assembly level, as long as the BJP is in power at the federal level even Christian areas will vote for BJP allies.  They know who they have to vote for to keep the federal level subsidies flowing.

[jaichind]

Punjab's Firozpur saw an amazing 4 way race

INC         23.70
AAP         23.41
BJP          22.67
SAD         22.54
SAD(A)      1.42

Back in 2019, it was

SAD       54.05 (backed by BJP)
INC        37.08
AAP         2.72


Punjab's Patiala saw a great 3 way race

INC        26.54 (was 2014 AAP winner, ran as NPP in 2019)
AAP        25.25
BJP        25.09 (was 2019 INC winner)
SAD       13.37
SAD(A)    4.1

Back in 2019, it was

INC       45.17 (defected to and ran for BJP in 2024)
SAD      31.35 (backed by BJP)
NPP       13.72 (AAP splinter, candidate was 2014 AAP winner) - joined and ran for INC in 2024
AAP        4.83

[jaichind]

The new AP capital of Amaravati

The vision


What it looks like now after construction started and then abandoned 5 years ago. CBN will be pressuing Modi for money to restart construction.

[eos]

Meghalaya had some very interesting results. INC lost its pocket borough in Shillong to a regional party VPP, but in turn defeated NPP MP Agatha Sangma in Tura in a shocking upset. The NPP faced anti-incumbency as Sangma’s family held the seat for several decades and also suffered from a toxic alliance with BJP due to the Manipur conflict last year and perception of BJP being anti-Christian.

The VPP made news last year, storming out of the assembly after the BJP appointed governor made his first speech in Hindi.

Is the INC MP Saleng Sangma related in any way to the Sangma who hold elected office in the state?

Same clan, but he is not a relative of the Sangma family of NPP and the Sangma in TMC (formerly INC).

[jaichind]

Is the INC MP Saleng Sangma related in any way to the Sangma who hold elected office in the state?

Same clan, but he is not a relative of the Sangma family of NPP and the Sangma in TMC (formerly INC).

The Sangma clan is a very powerful clan of the Garo people who dominate the Garo Hills region of Western Meghalaya.  Most political figures from Garo Hills are members of the Sangma clan.  From 1977 to 2024 I think there has only been 1 MP from Tura that is not from the Sangma clan.

[jaichind]

During the campaign, some of the ground-level feedback from UP indicated that one area of discontent from the endless number of civil service exam scams.  The 2024 UP police constable exam had to be canceled due to clear signs of cheating.

There is one blowing up right now. This one is the India-wide NEET exam which is for Medical school entrance.

The results just came out and any observation of data makes it clear there has been massive cheating.
The exam involved over 2.3 million students.  I think this exam will have to be canceled and re-done.

[jaichind]

Looking over my estimates and then Axis My India exit polls it occurred to me that while exit polls were way off they were not that way off in terms of vote share.  What really broke down was vote distribution and vote share-to-seat share calculation.

Since Axis My India gave very detailed vote share estimates we can construct charts of what Axis My India vote share and seat share estimates by NDA BJP and INC.

NDA                   Vote Share    Seats
Axis My India          47%            381
Me                         45.2%         334
Result                    44.3%          292

BJP                    Vote Share    Seats
Axis My India          40%            331
Me                         38.1%         287
Result                    36.9%         240

INC                    Vote share      Seats
Axis My India         21%            68
Me                        21.1%         84
Result                   21.4%          99

Axis My India was pretty close on INC vote share and not that off on vote share for NDA and BJP. Even though I was fairly close in terms of vote share estimates for all 3 but still way off (especially for BJP and NDA) for seat share.

I think overall NDA was fairly unlucky in terms of vote share to seat share conversion.

Of the 70 seats where the winning margin was 3% or less, NDA only won 44% of them
Of the 286 seats where the winning margin was 10% or more, NDA won 59% of them

So NDA just had a lot more wasted votes which also helped to throw off any estimate of the result, especially Axis My India which also had an error in estimating the BJP vote share.

[jaichind]

INC vote share in Nagaland seems inversely proportional to the number of MLAs it elects in the previous assembly election

                             MLA       LS Vote share
2003 assembly        21
2004 LS                                 25.78%
2008 assembly        23
2009 LS                                 29.35%
2013 assembly         8
2014 LS                                 30.14%
2018 assembly         0
2019 LS                                 48.11%
2023 assembly         0
2024 LS                                 52.85%

[randomusername]

Looking over my estimates and then Axis My India exit polls it occurred to me that while exit polls were way off they were not that way off in terms of vote share.  What really broke down was vote distribution and vote share-to-seat share calculation.

Since Axis My India gave very detailed vote share estimates we can construct charts of what Axis My India vote share and seat share estimates by NDA BJP and INC.

NDA                   Vote Share    Seats
Axis My India          47%            381
Me                         45.2%         334
Result                    44.3%          292

BJP                    Vote Share    Seats
Axis My India          40%            331
Me                         38.1%         287
Result                    36.9%         240

INC                    Vote share      Seats
Axis My India         21%            68
Me                        21.1%         84
Result                   21.4%          99

Axis My India was pretty close on INC vote share and not that off on vote share for NDA and BJP. Even though I was fairly close in terms of vote share estimates for all 3 but still way off (especially for BJP and NDA) for seat share.

I think overall NDA was fairly unlucky in terms of vote share to seat share conversion.

Of the 70 seats where the winning margin was 3% or less, NDA only won 44% of them
Of the 286 seats where the winning margin was 10% or more, NDA won 59% of them

So NDA just had a lot more wasted votes which also helped to throw off any estimate of the result, especially Axis My India which also had an error in estimating the BJP vote share.

Do you think its possible in 2029 we end up with a result like the inverse of the 1996-1999 elections where the BJP may have the highest vote share but end up the second largest party

[jaichind]

The HP assembly speaker has disqualified the 6 rebel INC MLA which means that INC continues to hold an edge (34 vs 28) over the opposition.  The HP INC government is safe for now but they are still at the mercy of the Pratibha Singh faction and their next move. 

The 6 INC rebels ran as BJP in by-elections and the result was INC 4 BJP 2 despite BJP sweeping the LS polls held on the same day.  As a result, the HP INC government is safe.  Part of the reason seems to be INC high command made peace with Pratibha Singh and nominated her son as the MP candidate in Mandi.  He lost but the Pratibha Singh faction going into action for him help pull 4 INC MLA candidates to victory in the by-elections held in the same day.

[jaichind]

TN results

BJP-AIADMK breakup allows DMK+ to sweep the polls despite losing vote share to NTK.  By not allying with BJP the AIADMK+ bloc was able to claw some Dravidna votes from DMK+ but it was not enough to prevent a clean sweep.  BJP was able to rope in PMK and there was some talk that BJP+ bloc could overtake AIADMK+ in terms of vote share but in the end, AIADMK's roots are deeper.

Overall DMK+ did lose ground to AIADMK+ BJP+ and NTK once you take into account that the NMN vote from 2019 and 2021 should have merged into DMK+.  For 2026 DMK+ could be vulnerable if AIADMK and BJP-PMK can renew their alliance but at this stage, it is not clear how transferable their vote bases are.

Tamil nationalist NTK vote share continues to surge upward.

CSDS post-election survey









2024 LS
DMK+                39            47.42%
AIADMK+             0            23.27%
BJP+                    0            18.39%
NTK                      0             8.24%


2021 assembly
DMK+               158            45.72%
AIADMK+            76            40.01%
AMMK+                 0             2.87% (AMMK has joined BJP+ in 2024)
MNM+                  0              2.75% (MNM has merged into INC for 2024)
NTK                     0              6.63%


2019 LS
DMK+                38            53.19%
AIADMK+            1             31.06%
AMMK+               0               5.19% (AMMK has joined BJP+ in 2024)
MNM+                 0               3.68% (MNM has merged into INC for 2024)
NTK                    0               3.90%

[jaichind]

Some India Today charts

[jaichind]

Some more CSDS data

Upper Caste vote did not change that much


Dalit vote shifted from NDA and BSP to INDIA


Lower OBC vote swung against NDA in some critical states


Tribal vote is different in different states


SP joining INDIA alliance allowed for a consolidation of the Muslim vote for INDIA

[jaichind]

Do you think its possible in 2029 we end up with a result like the inverse of the 1996-1999 elections where the BJP may have the highest vote share but end up the second largest party

I guess so but I think it is unlikely.  Even if the BJP under Modi is much more open to alliances than the INC in the 1996-1999 period. The BJP had to fight against the much stronger INC for their entire life (going back to BJS which is proto-BJP).  The 1996-2004 period was INC coming to terms that they could not win an election on their own like the pre-1991 era.  So 1996-1999 was a unique era where INC was stronger than BJP but INC refused to accept allies and played second fiddle to a strong regional party in a larger number of states.

The BJP of 2029 will continue to be open to allies to beat back INC led bloc.

[jaichind]

MP results

The Modi wave of 2019 is still strong here with BJP outperforming 2023 assembly elections by some margin.  INC+ vote share is underestimated since in one seat the INC backed SP candidate was disqualified which forced INC to back the AIFB candidate who got 4% of the vote with the core anti-BJP  vote going to BSP.  In another seat the INC candidate went over to the BJP and dropped out.  The INC backed NOTA which got 14% of the vote which I counted as part of INC+ vote share.

Unlike other states the Dalit vote and the rural vote are still strongly for BJP.

CSDS post-election survey



2024 LS
BJP                  29       59.78%
INC+                 0       33.43%
BSP                   0         3.31%


2023 assembly
BJP                 163        49.03%
INC                  66        40.80%
BSP                   0          3.43%


2019 LS
BJP                 28          58.54%
INC                   1         34.82%
BSP+                0            2.63%