India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[OSR stands with Israel]

Modi consecrates Ayodhya Ram Mandir.    Best wishes to Hindus everywhere on this great day for them.   Jai Shri Ram !!

Yesterday my parents and I went to a local Mandir where they were celebrating the occasion and their was quite a lot of people there. Of course the Pran Pratistha started way too late so we watched it at home rather than the Mandir.

Jai Shri Ram !!

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanchronicle.com/news/konda-vishweshwar-reddy-lodges-complaint-against-brs-mp-ranjit-reddy-879308

"Konda Vishweshwar Reddy lodges complaint against BRS MP Ranjit Reddy"

A number of people from Chevella Parliamentary constituency are in touch with Konda Vishweshwar Reddy and expressed their willingness to join BJP. Recently, several senior leaders, mandal leaders of the BRS expressed their interest to join the BJP.

This seems to be the trend in Telangana.  Now that BRS is out of power the fact that BRS grew last 10 years from defectors from INC, TDP, and BJP using money power, is going into reverse.    The lack of local talent in the BJP means that BJP will be much more interested in such defectors.

[jaichind]

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/nitish-palti-mar-sakta-hain-return-to-bjp/20240122.htm

"Is Nitish Returning To NDA?"

"Nitish Kumar palti mar sakte hai, woh BJP ke saath ja sakte hai. INDIA ko dump kar sakte hai (Nitish Kumar may change sides, dump INDIA and go with the BJP)," a senior JD-U leader, who is considered close to Nitish Kumar, told this correspondent from Delhi on Saturday, January 20, 2024.

I am surprised the BJP will entertain this.  This seems like a ploy by Nitish Kumar to extract more seats from RJD-INC.

[jaichind]

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/assam-cm-himanta-biswa-sarma-orders-dgp-to-register-case-against-rahul-gandhi-for-provoking-crowd-bharat-jodo-nyay-yatra-11705996666866.html

"Himanta Biswa Sarma directs DGP to register case against Rahul Gandhi for ‘provoking' crowd: ‘Such naxalite tactics…’"

Assam BJP CM Himanta Biswa Sarma charges Rahul Gandhi for incitement of crowd in on his Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra.   Note that Himanta Biswa Sarma was in the INC up until 2015 and left INC for BJP in 2015 after Rahul Gandhi refused to let him become the leader of Assam INC for the 2016 Assam assembly elections.

[jaichind]

Modi:  "This is a temple of national consciousness in the form of Ram. Ram is the faith of India, Ram is the foundation of India. Ram is the idea of India, Ram is the law of India...Ram is the prestige of India, Ram is the glory of India...Ram is the leader and Ram is the policy. Ram is eternal...When Ram is honored, its effect does not last for years or centuries, its effect is for thousands of years..."

Modi is taking on the conception of India of Nehru and INC head-on.

Note Modi's of "thousands of years". This fits the general Modi narrative of Indian history since the Ghaznavid invasion of India in the late 900s to 2014, India has lived under slavery.  Note this includes pre-2014 independent India since Modi's narrative is that despite independence in 1947 India lived under slavery of the mind.  And now that this 1000 years of slavery is over Modi will build a new India into an era of 1000 years of glory.

[jaichind]

BBC continues its anti-Modi line.

[jaichind]

In WB, the INDIA alliance has fallen apart.  Angered by what it considers unrealistic demands of INC, AITC has decided to run on its own.  It seems the Left Front has ruled out an alliance with AITC or INC and will only ally with Muslim-based ISF.  Left Front running separately from AITC makes sense.  INC not having an alliance with AITC will hurt both to the benefit of the BJP.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/aap-congress-come-together-for-chandigarh-mayoral-polls-9110968/

"AAP, Congress come together for Chandigarh mayoral polls"

First real INC-AAP alliance. AAP+INC has 20 members in the city assembly vs BJP 15.  AAP will contest mayor and INC will contest deputy mayor. 

After this alliance was formed the BJP delayed the election which they were likely to lose.   This got escalated to Punjab and Haryana High court who overturned the decision to delay this election

[icc]

In WB, the INDIA alliance has fallen apart.  Angered by what it considers unrealistic demands of INC, AITC has decided to run on its own.  It seems the Left Front has ruled out an alliance with AITC or INC and will only ally with Muslim-based ISF.  Left Front running separately from AITC makes sense.  INC not having an alliance with AITC will hurt both to the benefit of the BJP.

Would you read this as more aggressive posturing from the TMC or a definitive break (or something in the middle)?

[jaichind]

In WB, the INDIA alliance has fallen apart.  Angered by what it considers unrealistic demands of INC, AITC has decided to run on its own.  It seems the Left Front has ruled out an alliance with AITC or INC and will only ally with Muslim-based ISF.  Left Front running separately from AITC makes sense.  INC not having an alliance with AITC will hurt both to the benefit of the BJP.

Would you read this as more aggressive posturing from the TMC or a definitive break (or something in the middle)?

More likely a definitive break.  In theory, the breakdown is over seats (AITC offer of 2 (too low) to INC versus INC's demand of 6)   My understanding is that ATIC got tired of INC's good cop bad cop routine which convinced AITC that the local INC leaders were against an alliance despite what the national INC leadership said.

[jaichind]

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/assam-cm-himanta-biswa-sarma-orders-dgp-to-register-case-against-rahul-gandhi-for-provoking-crowd-bharat-jodo-nyay-yatra-11705996666866.html

"Himanta Biswa Sarma directs DGP to register case against Rahul Gandhi for ‘provoking' crowd: ‘Such naxalite tactics…’"

Assam BJP CM Himanta Biswa Sarma charges Rahul Gandhi for incitement of crowd in on his Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra.   Note that Himanta Biswa Sarma was in the INC up until 2015 and left INC for BJP in 2015 after Rahul Gandhi refused to let him become the leader of Assam INC for the 2016 Assam assembly elections.

It seems what took place was Rahul Gandhi has been saying that Assam BJP CM Himanta Biswa Sarma is "the most corrupt CM in India" and at Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra rallies has been asking the crowd "Who is the most corrupt CM in India?" and the crowd roared " Himanta Biswa Sarma"

Rahul Gandhi said that before 2015 when  Himanta Biswa Sarma was in INC, the BJP would often say that when the BJP comes to power the first thing they would do is to put  Himanta Biswa Sarma behind bars for corruption.  So, Rahul Gandhi reasoned, he is just repeating BJP talking points from 10 years ago.   Of course, when the BJP did come to power in 2016  Himanta Biswa Sarma already defected to the BJP.

It seems  Himanta Biswa Sarma is threatening to put Rahul Gandhi behind bars after the LS elections.

[jaichind]

https://m.timesofindia.com/india/nitish-kumar-hits-out-at-upa-governments-dynastic-politics-praises-pm-modi/articleshow/107124979.cms

"Nitish Kumar hits out at UPA governments & dynastic politics, praises PM Modi"

Wow.  It actually seems like Nitish Kumar will flip flop again.  Amazing. 

[jaichind]

Wow if this is true.  This means BJP-JD(U)-HAM-RLJD-VIP-RLJP will contest as an alliance against RJD-INC-Left in the 2024 LS and assembly elections held at the same time. Chirag Paswan's LJP(RV) will not accept being part of an alliance with Nitish Kumar so most likely LJP(RV) will run separately while RLJP led by his uncle Pashupati Kumar Paras will be fine being in NDA even with JD(U).

Nitish Kumar must have had enough of seat-sharing talks with RJD and INC and after discovering that the BJP has a massive lead in the Hindi belt after the Ram temple consecration decided he rather be on the winning side even if this means JD(U) will become more of a junior partner of the BJP.

https://twitter.com/jankibaat1/status/1750441427505725521

[jaichind]

August 2022 BJP leader commented to RJD on news of the RJD-JD(U) alliance to form the government in Bihar "the snake has entered your home"  Of course now the BJP will accept the same "snake" back?

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/snake-has-entered-your-home-union-minister-giriraj-singh-to-lalu-prasad-on-allying-with-nitish/articleshow/93476983.cms

"Snake has entered your home: Union minister Giriraj Singh to Lalu Prasad on allying with Nitish Kumar"

[jaichind]

History of Nitish Kumar flip flops.

Summer of 2013.  Nitish Kumar ends nearly 20 years of alliance with BJP after Modi becomes BJP PM candidate of the BJP.  This is because Nitish Kumar was hoping he could be the PM candidate for NDA for 2014.

2014 LS elections.  JD(U) pushed to third place and Nitish Kumar stepped down as CM and installed "puppet" Jitan Ram Manjhi as CM.  In early 2015 when Jitan Ram Manjhi was getting out of control he was removed (and went on to form HAM) and Nitish Kumar returned as CM with RJD and INC support with Nitish Kumar joining UPA.

2015 assembly elections.  JD(U)-RJD-INC-Left wins in landslide.

2017.  After BJP landslide victory in the UP assembly elections and Nitish Kumar's plans to become the UPA PM candidate in 2019 failed he defects back to BJP to form a government with BJP.

2019 LS elections.  NDA landslide victory

2020 assembly elections.  Narrow NDA victory with BJP using LJP to cut into its "ally" JD(U) to pave the way for BJP to become the senior partner in the alliance.

2022 Nitish Kumar defects from NDA to rejoin UPA and form a JD(U)-RJD-INC government.

2024 After attempts to become INDIA alliance PM candidate fails Nitish Kumar seems set to defect back to BJP.

[icc]

August 2022 BJP leader commented to RJD on news of the RJD-JD(U) alliance to form the government in Bihar "the snake has entered your home"  Of course now the BJP will accept the same "snake" back?

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/snake-has-entered-your-home-union-minister-giriraj-singh-to-lalu-prasad-on-allying-with-nitish/articleshow/93476983.cms

"Snake has entered your home: Union minister Giriraj Singh to Lalu Prasad on allying with Nitish Kumar"

I'm not sure why the BJP would take them back to be honest. It's unlikely that Bihar will make the difference or not between them getting a majority, and JD(U) are clearly inherently unreliable. It makes sense for INDIA to want them (as they need all the support they can get) but I'm not really sure what's in it for the BJP.

[jaichind]

August 2022 BJP leader commented to RJD on news of the RJD-JD(U) alliance to form the government in Bihar "the snake has entered your home"  Of course now the BJP will accept the same "snake" back?

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/snake-has-entered-your-home-union-minister-giriraj-singh-to-lalu-prasad-on-allying-with-nitish/articleshow/93476983.cms

"Snake has entered your home: Union minister Giriraj Singh to Lalu Prasad on allying with Nitish Kumar"

I'm not sure why the BJP would take them back to be honest. It's unlikely that Bihar will make the difference or not between them getting a majority, and JD(U) are clearly inherently unreliable. It makes sense for INDIA to want them (as they need all the support they can get) but I'm not really sure what's in it for the BJP.

BJP's long-term plan is to eat up JD(U) so the state becomes a bipolar BJP vs RJD state.  The main problem with BJP in Bihar is it does not have a "face" in the state that can appeal to OBCs.  So BJP will accept an alliance with JD(U) on the premise that they can use Nitish Kumar as a "face" for them AND eat up JD(U) along the way. 

I am not sure this current move by the BJP is wise.  There is significant anti-incumbency in Bihar against Nitish Kumar and now BJP will bear the brunt of that in the assembly election.  I guess they bet that if the assembly and LS election take place at the same time then Modi will carry BJP-JD(U) with him leaving the BJP to eat up JD(U) after the election.

[jaichind]

In WB, the INDIA alliance has fallen apart.  Angered by what it considers unrealistic demands of INC, AITC has decided to run on its own.  It seems the Left Front has ruled out an alliance with AITC or INC and will only ally with Muslim-based ISF.  Left Front running separately from AITC makes sense.  INC not having an alliance with AITC will hurt both to the benefit of the BJP.

Would you read this as more aggressive posturing from the TMC or a definitive break (or something in the middle)?

More thoughts on this.  In Indian elections, the campaign is won several months in advance based on what the "narrative" is with each party pushing a different narrative.

The LS election in WB can have two narratives.  It is either
a) About a positive vote for Modi in which case the narrative is mostly about the PM's face
OR
b) About anti-incumbency against ATIC CM Mamata Banerjee in which case the narrative is about views on the AITC state government. 

If it is a) then it is critical that AITC-INC become allies since there is a need to merge the pro-Mamata Banerjee vote and pro-Rahul Gandhi for PM, vote into one bloc while the pro-Modi vote consolidates around BJP with hopes that the Left Front and pull in some ex-Left Front but anti-AITC BJP votes that are lukewarm on Modi.

If it is b) then it is about how to split the anti-AITC vote.  In such a case the AITC needs to manufacture a blowup with INC and run it separately and have INC and Left Front cut into the anti-AITC vote from BJP.

It seems to me a) is the more likely narrative but I guess AITC is banking on b)

[jaichind]

ABP reports that Nitish Kumar is likely to become the Convenor of the NDA alliance.  So in a matter of weeks, Nitish Kumar went from a possible Convenor of the INDIA alliance to a possible Convenor of the NDA alliance.

[jaichind]

Nitish Kumar to defect back on the same day?

https://twitter.com/jankibaat1/status/1750478201372156280

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/jagadish-shettar-returns-to-bjp-had-switched-to-congress-last-year-4928991

"Jagadish Shettar Returns To BJP, Had Switched To Congress Last Year"

Former Karnataka BJP CM Jagadish Shettar returns to BJP.  Jagadish Shettar is a key Lingayat leader who ran afoul of the local BJP leadership and as a result, was denied the BJP to run in his seat last year.  He defected to INC but was defeated by the BJP candidate in the assembly elections.  He was given a MLC seat by INC as compensation but now defected back to the BJP.  At least he hot a MLC out of this entire adventure.

[jaichind]

What Nitish Kumar is facing
https://twitter.com/PoliticalViewsO/status/1750510577732944298

[jaichind]

There are rumors that RJD is trying to break the JD(U) to forma majority in Bihar assembly on his own.  Of course in that situation Nitish Kumar will dissolve the assembly and go for early assembly elections. 

[randomusername]

What Nitish Kumar is facing
https://twitter.com/PoliticalViewsO/status/1750510577732944298

I mean honestly I viewed him as a dead man walking. He's switched sides too many times and got marginalized big time in the 2019 elections.

[jaichind]

Note that the Speaker of Bihar assembly is from RJD.  If RJD can engineer some JD(U) defections it will get cover from the Speaker.  In the meantime it seems BJP wants the CM spot for allowing JD(U) to return.   Nitish Kumar's position is not as strong this time as the 2013 2017 and 2022 defections.