India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/ram-mandir-inauguration-consecration-ceremony-of-balak-ram-idol-in-ayodhya-l-k-advani-murali-manohar-joshi-ram-mandir-movement-9130723/

"Inside Track by Coomi Kapoor: Modi-centric show"

If true this is highly embarrassing for the INC and shows how weak the INC organization has become in UP.  I suspect what INC meant was perhaps some relative of the old INC  Bansgaon MP Mahaveer Prasad.  Still to just throw out names of people or their relatives that are from the 1970s and 1980s shows that INC has not really grown new political talent in UP.

If the Congress has made little headway so far in seat-sharing arrangements with INDIA allies, it is because it is still talking from an unrealistically high perch without doing its homework. While SP and RJD came armed for talks with a booth-by-booth vote analysis, the first meeting between SP and Congress leaders ended abruptly when SP president Akhilesh Yadav pointed out that Mahaveer Prasad, proposed by the Congress for a seat from UP’s Bansgaon constituency, had passed away a decade earlier. At a later meeting, the SP estimated the Congress strength in UP was five seats at most, while the Congress wanted 20.

[jaichind]

The number of times Nitsh Kuamr is sworn in as CM rises to 9.  This record will be hard to break in decades if ever.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/tehseenp/status/1751637565084717316

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

Rahul Gandhi continues to push the caste census as a talking point.  One thing an all-India caste census will also do is to get caste breakdowns for non-Hindus as well.

Back in the 2011 census, there was some attempt to do this and the inferred result of that by faith were below.  But it was not in-depth and the numbers of OBC and Dalits are most likely undercounted.

Note how Muslim areas are heavily Upper caste.  Hindu converts to Islam during the era of the Delhi Sultanate and Moghuls converted for political reasons and the people that would do that were already at the top of the Hindu apex hierarchy.   Buddhists lean heavily toward Dalits as in the early to mid 1900s there was a large movement among Dalits to escape caste oppression by converting to Buddhism.



Note that even though there are caste breakdowns for non-Hindus, OBC and Dalit non-Hindus do not get the benefit of quotas for education and government job opportunities on the premise that religions like Christianity, Islam, and Buddhism do not have the concept of caste.   In practice, there are still heavy caste differences between Muslim and Christian Indians.  In some Christian churches people of different castes sit separately from each other just to show the strength of caste differences.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/hemant-soren-ed-team-house-delhi-money-laundering-case-jharkhand-cm-2494762-2024-01-29

"Hemant Soren, 'untraceable', tells probe agency he'll appear before it on Jan 31"

Jharkhand JMM CM Hemant Soren has gone AWOL as investigatory agencies close in on corruption charges.

First Hemant Soren and clan are up to all sorts of corrupt stuff but so is everyone else in Jharkhand.  Also what the investigatory agencies are going after him on are mostly technicalities.  While  Hemant Soren is clearly guilty this is a clear case of selective prosecution.  BJP will win this 2024 Jharkhand assembly elections later this year anyway.  Going after Hemant Soren does not seem to me to remove how viable he will be in 2029 when I expect JMM to return to power.

[jaichind]

When Nitish Kumar betrayed the BJP in August 2022 to join forces with RJD-INC, BJP OBC leader Samrat Choudhary was so angry that he started to wear a turban and swore that he would never take it off until Nithsh Kumar was overthrown.





Now that Nitish Kumar has defected back to the BJP, Samrat Choudhary has been appointed one of the two BJP DCMs of Bihar.  Even at the swearing-in ceremony, Samrat Choudhary did not take off his turban which makes sense since in theory Nitish Kumar was not overthrown




When pressed on this Samrat Choudhary says that he will visit the new Ram Mandir in Ayodhya
where he will ask for Lord Ram's blessings to go against his oath and then take off the turban.

[jaichind]

C-Voter Bihar poll of the critical EBC vote before JD(U) went back to BJP.  If it was BJS vs RJD-JD(U)-INC then the RJD-JD(U)-INC bloc would have a slight edge over BJP.   In 2020 BJP-JD(U) swept RJD-INC-Left with ECB voters.   With JD(U) going back to BJP most likely this will take place again in the 2024 LS elections in Bihar.

[jaichind]

https://thefederal.com/category/states/west/maharashtra/maha-vikas-aghadi-coalition-welcomes-prakash-ambedkar-led-vba-ahead-of-ls-polls-108181

"Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition welcomes Prakash Ambedkar-led VBA ahead of LS polls"

VBA joins INDIA alliance in Maharashtra.  This will make a marginal difference in the LS elections but will make a big difference in the assembly elections later in the year.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/aap-congress-come-together-for-chandigarh-mayoral-polls-9110968/

"AAP, Congress come together for Chandigarh mayoral polls"

First real INC-AAP alliance. AAP+INC has 20 members in the city assembly vs BJP 15.  AAP will contest mayor and INC will contest deputy mayor. 

https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/aapcongress-to-approach-court-after-invalid-votes-help-bjp-win-chandigarh-mayoral-polls-heres-what-happened-11706610553412.html

"AAP-Congress to approach court after 'invalid' votes help BJP win Chandigarh Mayoral polls — Here's what happened |"

BJP wins mayor election after disputed counting.

What took place was that INC-AAP formed an alliance for the Chandigarh mayor election.  Then the counting officer for the election delayed the vote due to his illness.  After going to the courts INC-AAP got an injunction to force the counting officer to go ahead with the election.

The result was

BJP     16
AAP    12 (backed by INC)
invalid  8

It seems 8 opposition votes were counted as invalid due to spoiled ballot.  There are video of the counting officer making some ballots so INC-AAP are going to courts over what they claim is cheating by the counter officer.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/hemant-soren-ed-team-house-delhi-money-laundering-case-jharkhand-cm-2494762-2024-01-29

"Hemant Soren, 'untraceable', tells probe agency he'll appear before it on Jan 31"

Jharkhand JMM CM Hemant Soren has gone AWOL as investigatory agencies close in on corruption charges.

First Hemant Soren and clan are up to all sorts of corrupt stuff but so is everyone else in Jharkhand.  Also what the investigatory agencies are going after him on are mostly technicalities.  While  Hemant Soren is clearly guilty this is a clear case of selective prosecution.  BJP will win this 2024 Jharkhand assembly elections later this year anyway.  Going after Hemant Soren does not seem to me to remove how viable he will be in 2029 when I expect JMM to return to power.

All signs are that Jharkhand JMM CM Hemant Soren will be arrested tomorrow for corruption.  JMM-INC alliance are making plans for Hemant Soren's wife to stand in and take over the CM role.

[jaichind]

Rumors are that Sonia Gandhi will contest from Telangana this time (to try to push up the INC vote and seat share in Telangana) while Priyanka Gandhi will contest from Sonia Gandhi's current seat in UP's Rae Bareli.

[jaichind]

The rumored seat-sharing breakdown in Maharastra for NDA seems to be

BJP                26 (25 in 2019)
SHS(Shinde)  12 (Unified SHS was 23 in 2019)
NCP(Ajit)         9
RPI(A)             1

This would match the narrative that SHS(Shinde) and NCP(Ajit) would allow BJP to have its way in the LS seat-sharing talks but will be very aggressive in the assembly election seat sharing talks later in the year where both would expect BJP to give ground.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/hemant-soren-arrest-hemant-soren-ed-facing-enforcement-directorate-heat-hemant-soren-files-case-against-agency-4966842

"Hemant Soren Files Case Against Probe Agency Under SC/ST Act"

Jharkhand JMM CM  Hemant Soren is going the Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis route.  Namely: "The investigative agencies are going after me on corruption only because I am a tribal" He further contends that looking after his corruption constitutes atrocities and hate crimes against a tribal and is illegal under the SC/ST Act

[jaichind]

It seems that the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation election which has been delayed by 2 years due to elimination issues is going to be delayed some more.  In the meantime, the Maharashtra state government controls all the money of the Mumbai municipal government and is going to route tons of money to NDA MLAs with none going to opposition MLAs.

[jaichind]

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/delhi-excise-policy-case-ed-summons-arvind-kejriwal-for-fifth-time-ask-him-to-appear-on-2-feb-11706692594200.html

Looks like investigatory agencies are also closing in on Delhi AAP CM Kejriwal which could just very well eventually mean his arrest at some stage in the future.

[jaichind]

https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/hemant-soren-news-jharkhand-news-hemant-soren-party-kalpana-soren-hemant-soren-wife-jharkhand-cm-hemant-soren-11706693857857.html

It seems Jharkhand JMM CM  Hemant Soren will be arrested soon and will resign today to make way for his wife to become CM.

[jaichind]

 Jharkhand JMM CM  Hemant Soren officially arrested

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/champai-soren-to-be-next-jharkhand-cm-101706713142867.html

"Champai Soren to be next Jharkhand CM as Hemant Soren faces arrest by ED"

Looks like JMM-INC-RLD discussions came up with Hemant Soren's close ally Champai Soren (no relation) being the new CM versus Hemant Soren's wife which was the old consensus.

[jaichind]

Number of times Nitish Kumar has betrayed Lalu Yadav: 3
1994 - Lalu Yadav Key lieutenant Nitish Kumar defects from Lalu Yadav led Bihar JD to form SAP which allies with BJP
2017 - Nitish Kumar takes JD(U) out of RJD led UPA in Bihar
2024 -  Nitish Kumar takes JD(U) out of RJD led INDIA in Bihar

Number of times Nitish Kumar has betrayed BJP: 2
2013 - Nitish Kumar takes JD(U) out of BJP led NDA
2022 - Nitish Kumar takes JD(U) out of BJP led NDA

BTW, I can see Nitish Kumar betraying BJP for a third time

if you game things out after the LS elections it will be either
a) BJP forces Nitish Kumar out as CM and installs BJP CM with JD(U) support
or
b) Nitish Kumar will continue as CM until the 2025 assembly elections where BJP-JD(U) will run but without a CM face

BJP prefers a) since under b) BJP will be dragged down by the anti-incumbency of having Nitish Kumar as sitting CM

If a) takes place, Nitish Kumar could
1) Break off the alliance with BJP and go for snap elections which will be BJP-LJP-RLJD-HAM-VIP vs RJD-INC-Left vs JD(U).  In such a case there is no way RJD will take Nitish Kumar back
OR
2) Accepts losing CM position to the BJP but right before the 2025 assembly elections leaves NDA to ally with RJD again.  In such a case RJD might accept this since with Nitish Kumar out of power for a year or so there will be less anti-incumbency
OR
3) Run as an ally of the BJP and hope for the best post-election

[jaichind]

NDTV poll of Bihar has NDA (BJP-JD(U)-LJP-RLJD-HAM-VIP) with a massive lead over INDIA alliance (RJD-INC-Left) 53 to 23

[jaichind]

AAP moves to Supreme Court against Chandigarh Mayor Election results.

https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/aapcongress-to-approach-court-after-invalid-votes-help-bjp-win-chandigarh-mayoral-polls-heres-what-happened-11706610553412.html

"AAP-Congress to approach court after 'invalid' votes help BJP win Chandigarh Mayoral polls — Here's what happened |"

BJP wins mayor election after disputed counting.

What took place was that INC-AAP formed an alliance for the Chandigarh mayor election.  Then the counting officer for the election delayed the vote due to his illness.  After going to the courts INC-AAP got an injunction to force the counting officer to go ahead with the election.

The result was

BJP     16
AAP    12 (backed by INC)
invalid  8

It seems 8 opposition votes were counted as invalid due to spoiled ballot.  There are video of the counting officer making some ballots so INC-AAP are going to courts over what they claim is cheating by the counter officer.

[jaichind]

Modi government came out with next year's budget.  No new populist measures.  It seems Modi is going to try to win on his brand and the government record as it is without new freebies. 

[jaichind]

India central government budget.  Note the high amount of funds needed to service the public debt.  This is why Indian inflation has to be high since higher inflation will work to reduce the real value of the debt to make it easier to sustain.  If India had inflation in the ~2% like in the West but with current debt and servicing costs there would be big fiscal issues.

[jaichind]

Confirmed that Kerala 7-time MLA PC George will merge his KEC splinter KJ(S) into BJP.    Most likely he will run as BJP candidate in Kottayam.  He ran there as a BJP ally back in 2019 and got a respectable 17% of the vote.

https://bnnbreaking.com/politics/pc-george-eyes-bjp-membership-citing-partys-focus-on-progress-and-welfare/

"PC George Eyes BJP Membership, Citing Party’s Focus on Progress and Welfare"

Old Kerala KEC veteran whose KEC splinter KJ(S) has been allied with the BJP it seems will merge into BJP.

PC George was part of the dominant KEC faction KEC(M) in the 1970s  then PC George was associated with KEC(J) in the 1980-2006 period when KEC(J) split from KEC(M) in 1980 to stay in UDF while KEC(M) went over to LDF.  KEC(M) came back to UDF in 1982 but the KEC(M) and KEC(J) split remained.  KEC(J) itself was with UDF for most of that period but went over to LDF in 2001.  PC George split from KEC(J) in 2006 and created KEC(S) but still stayed in LDF.   But in 2011 he merged KEC(S) with KEC(J) ancient rival KEC(M) and joined KEC(M) which was a part of UDF.  In 2016 he split from KEC(M) and created KJ(S) and ran separately from UDF and LDF.  He was elected in 2016 but became more aligned with NDA but in the 2021 assembly elections, he failed to ally with NDA and was defeated.  It seems now he will merge his one-man KJ(S) party with BJP